I think that we're starting to see them getting to the point where normal owners are no longer willing to put money into them to fix them. Perceived value of a standard, stock 3rd gen is 3-5k for a 200k-ish mile example. That is about where a standard, daily driven 3rd gen should be at this point. There are many 20 yr old trucks at 200k that have never had a major issue/service. I think they're starting to die by attrition from those that drive them until they have a major issue. Whether that be the pink milkshake, the occasional head gasket, catalytic converter, run low on oil, etc. When a normal person sees that their vehicle is worth 4k, give or take, and they get an estimate of 1k+ to repair, they start to question whether or not they should even repair it, and whether or not they can trust it again. Generally, I think up until recently, most of them that just had regular oil changes, tires, and brakes have been able to survive with the occasional "repair". At 20 years old, 200k miles, normal people stop repairing them.

I like old vehicles that have a community around them like the 3rd gen. I trust that if rust is staved off, timing belt done, LBJ's done, transmission cooler handled, axle seals looked after, I should have a good chance of survival well beyond my 225k miles. That being said, I watch what I spend on the truck. It could have a critical failure tomorrow and I don't have a garage to do an engine/transmission swap on my own. Short of that, I'm willing to take the gamble on the truck because I like it and most of the critical failure points can be prevented since they've been well documented over the last 20 years. It could die tomorrow but I don't think it will. Most people will say "it's been a good run" once they've had it for some time, it's value is minimal, and it needs a costly repair. I think that is the attrition we're starting to see. Things are starting to reach a point of failure for a normal person's maintenance schedule or costing more to repair than what they deem worth.

The good news is that a lot of these people had a good enough run that they'll buy a 5th gen new and sell it down the line. I still love my 3rd gen and have a soft spot for them. It will likely become too much of a hassle to daily and road trip at some point. I'm not there yet, but if a nice 5th gen was 10k right now, I may have walked away after the repairs over the last 2 years.