Hope for the best prepare for the worst.How are you prepping for the covid-19 virus.

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Rapid_Amble said:
IHME does a lot of data crunching and modeling around this coronavirus pandemic. Their forecasts are used for preparedness plans and by the media for talking points. See link below for an example of the dire warning on an impending shortage of hospital beds based on IHME models.

As it turns out, actual hospital bed utilization is way below IHME predictions. The closest model might be Florida where actual beds needed / model forecast is 47%. In New York it’s about 36%.

If you thought that’s ok because they’ll update the model as more data rolls in, you’d be wrong. They haven’t updated any of their models.

Their models for fatality predictions are used widely as well by the way. Those are very likely way off as well.

New COVID-19 Forecasts: US Hospitals Could Be Overwhelmed in the Second Week of April by Demand for ICU Beds, and US Deaths Could Total 81,000 by July | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Click to expand...


Oh, I get it now. You know more than the experts who do this as a career.

You say “ As it turns out, actual hospital bed utilization is way below IHME predictions. The closest model might be Florida where actual beds needed / model forecast is 47%. In New York it’s about 36%.”
Where did you get this gem of a factoid? (no citation). Don’t believe it. And the sick and dying health care workers in NYC might disagree with your skepticism.

As for models, you say “ They haven’t updated any of their models.”
Wrong.
We’re getting real time data now from hospitals. Data is used to update assumptions made when a model is designed. Build model, make best assumptions with data you have, as new data tolls in you update model and it gets more accurate. That’s how modeling works.
The article you linked actually states:
“IHME will update the analysis routinely as a source of “real-time” information for hospital system administrators and local, state, and federal health policymakers. The analysis is based on an extensive range of information and data sources, including:

-Local governments, national governments, and the World Health Organization
Government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies
-Data from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital bed and ICU capacity and average annual utilization of these services by state
-Data on COVID-19-related demand for ICU services in the United States
-Age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea, and the US”

And the article linked within that parent article further states:
“The model was last updated at 7 a.m. Pacific, April 2, 2020 and will be updated again on Saturday, April 4.“

I’m not sure what your angle is in all of this. But keep it coming. Thanks for linking to that article.
 
Brick Sprickly said:
Dont use globalresearch.ca as a source.

It's a fringe website with no journalistic or evidence standards. They publish anything that fits their narrative. They also republish articles from blogs and sites on their site that are even more fringe than they are. For example, they republish articles by Gary Null, a ridiculous guy who thinks homeopathy can cure HIV and believes every single conspiracy theory out there.

Now of course, not everything they post on their site is wrong. It's just that it's a low quality source. So if something is true, simply do not use globalresearch.ca as a site, but use another one. In short, it’s become commercialized.

Here's some examples of the 'quality' journalism:

Earth Day, Geo-Engineering and Chemtrails Earth Day, Geo-Engineering and Chemtrails - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

9/11 Truth in 2014: Is a Breakthrough Possible? 9/11 Truth in 2014: Is a Breakthrough Possible? - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

“Depopulation Vaccine” in Kenya and Beyond "Depopulation Vaccine" in Kenya and Beyond - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

So, do you have another source?
Click to expand...

Currently the journalism profession is a joke. I laugh when commercials are shown demonstrating their value to the community. Not that they are not reporting, it’s the sources they are getting their data from. We get a veneer version of the truth. The sources work for the industries that are being reported on and that prevents the real story from being told.
 
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Muzzle of Bees said:
Currently the journalism profession is a joke. I laugh when commercials are shown demonstrating their value to the community. Not that are not reporting, it’s the sources they are getting their data from. We get a veneer version of the truth. The sources work for the industries that are being reported on and that prevents the real story from being told.
Click to expand...

Fox News?
 
ElectroBoy said:
Fox News?
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I'd say all of 'em report with twisting of facts that support their political bias (right or left). Seems very few truly objective outlets left these days. Although, from what I've seen historically it would be naive to think there was ever widespread reporting without bias influences of some sort. It appears jouralism has always been a tool used for manipulating the masses.
 
Jernik said:
I'd say all of 'em report with twisting of facts that support their political bias (right or left). Seems very few truly objective outlets left these days. Although, from what I've seen historically it would be naive to think there was ever widespread reporting without bias influences of some sort. It appears jouralism has always been a tool used for manipulating the masses.
Click to expand...

The news industry has become monetized. The corporations that own and deliver the content have shareholders to impress, so it’s mostly entertainment with lots of sensationalism deliberately built in.
 
Some fun reading. Don't know how to link a PDF "How to report cause of death on death certificates for cases involving COVID-19" 02April2020.

NVSS - COVID-19 Alerts and Information

“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death"

Looks like WHO put out these guidelines and of course CDC follows.
 

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ElectroBoy said:
Oh, I get it now. You know more than the experts who do this as a career.

You say “ As it turns out, actual hospital bed utilization is way below IHME predictions. The closest model might be Florida where actual beds needed / model forecast is 47%. In New York it’s about 36%.”
Where did you get this gem of a factoid? (no citation). Don’t believe it. And the sick and dying health care workers in NYC might disagree with your skepticism.

As for models, you say “ They haven’t updated any of their models.”
Wrong.
We’re getting real time data now from hospitals. Data is used to update assumptions made when a model is designed. Build model, make best assumptions with data you have, as new data tolls in you update model and it gets more accurate. That’s how modeling works.
The article you linked actually states:
“IHME will update the analysis routinely as a source of “real-time” information for hospital system administrators and local, state, and federal health policymakers. The analysis is based on an extensive range of information and data sources, including:

-Local governments, national governments, and the World Health Organization
Government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies
-Data from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital bed and ICU capacity and average annual utilization of these services by state
-Data on COVID-19-related demand for ICU services in the United States
-Age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea, and the US”

And the article linked within that parent article further states:
“The model was last updated at 7 a.m. Pacific, April 2, 2020 and will be updated again on Saturday, April 4.“

I’m not sure what your angle is in all of this. But keep it coming. Thanks for linking to that article.
Click to expand...

The “angle” is stupid simple. Every day the actual number of coronavirus victims in ICU beds divided by the number predicted by IHME models is <<1. You’d think they would recalibrate their models to at least get closer to actual numbers. But they don’t.

There’s marketing and then there’s reality. You can quote their marketing till the cows come home but it doesn’t change reality. Their models are way off.

By the way, Bill Gates funds the IHME. He also funds the WHO. More funny, odd coincidences,
 
Charlievee said:
With the ridiculous low speed limits, you will never out run the china virus. I read deals gap and the dragon are still open.
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Just got back to Houston, TX yesterday. No traffic at all on the BRP. Deals Gap was closed and some roads getting to it were also closed, so I just skipped it. The only part of the BRP that was closed was the 1st 14 miles; and that's because Cherokee, NC was not letting non-locals in. I did get a private detour through the town by local leo's.
 

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Something has been bothering me every time the "good" doctor takes the podium at a press conference. Figured it out this morning (for those that get it)
 

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So... Ten million unemployed and climbing? I guess the libs have the economic crisis they wanted. Time to go back to work!
 
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