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Old 02-21-2020, 09:52 AM #1
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Parts shortages coming me thinks?

I've been following this covid-19 thing from the start and we aren't getting the full picture of how F'd up things are in China. I'm not sure how things will unfold in Japan over the next month or two but they are already talking about shutting down all their schools. JP Morgan, Maersk and other interested parties are saying China is at 50% production at best from these quarantines. They had 760 million people under quarantine last I heard. There's basically no traffic in a bunch of their cities. Chinese auto sales are down 92% in Feb. If they send people back to work they risk more outbreaks. 4runner parts is actually the least of my concerns about the fallout from this (research how much of our rx drugs and ingredients come from China) but keeping it 4runner related I reckon we might have trouble getting parts in the next few months. May want to get on top of any maintenance you've been putting off, 4runner and otherwise.
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Old 02-21-2020, 10:38 AM #2
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Not to worry - the sky won't fall - they've got lots and lots of backup folks in China, they have 1.44 Billion folks to our 331 million...will there be minor interruptions, perhaps but the supply chain is really long such that it's size will buffer those interruptions.

Kick back and enjoy a beer, luckily we make that here!
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Old 02-21-2020, 10:58 AM #3
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With no one going to work in China there must be an over abundance of gasoline on the market, Why arnt gas prices plummeting? I could drive my 4runner more with cheaper gas prices.
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Old 02-21-2020, 11:03 AM #4
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If it truly becomes a massive pandemic then all bets are off. CDC with the help of pharmaceutical companies has isolated the genome and have replicated synthetic strains for testing and are sending out batches to be tested on infected patients they think they can come up with a viable vaccine within three months. So let's hope for the best and prayers to all those that are infected and to those who have lost loved ones.
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Old 02-21-2020, 11:11 AM #5
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Lets also remember that OEM parts are made in Japan, and not China. Japan's manufacturing facilities aren't closed, and production is still strong. Most facilities in China have been granted government approval to reopen as well. This doesn't mean disruptions won't happen because they most likely will. The big issue is transportation, and hoping carries will continue to pick up product in China. Some carriers have already ceased operations, and if more join this is going to be your issue.

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Old 02-21-2020, 04:01 PM #6
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All i know is that there is a national back order on Toyota remained axles...
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Old 02-21-2020, 10:31 PM #7
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I suspect a pile of sectors are going to be filing a crunch soon. However it may all depend on were parts are mfg in China. All your computer and electronics are almost all mfg in China.

This is one of the reasons companies should have 2 to 3 global sites for mfg goods. As natural disasters and pandemics can occur. Yet I doubt they ever will as this hasn't been an issue yet.

What if for example all of China cant ship goods or materials. Not only will their economy start tanking quickly. Now the mfg companies will start looking elsewhere to mfg goods cheaper. Sadly Africa will start being exploited for cheap labor as will India or elsewhere in the world were companies can mfg the cheapest for the greatest return on investment. Eventually, the entire world will be developed and there will not be any place left for cheap labor or the robots will mfg all the goods. Time we tell how this plays out.

I do have my theories as to what happened in China but that's off topic. This is about shortages and parts supplies.


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Old 02-21-2020, 10:52 PM #8
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Japan in top 3 confirmed cases countries
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Old 02-21-2020, 11:30 PM #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jgue467 View Post
Not to worry - the sky won't fall - they've got lots and lots of backup folks in China, they have 1.44 Billion folks to our 331 million...will there be minor interruptions, perhaps but the supply chain is really long such that it's size will buffer those interruptions.

Kick back and enjoy a beer, luckily we make that here!
The population of China does not make sense. You have use percentages. Right now like 10% of the worlds population is under quarantine. Think about 1 in 10 of all the people who live on kick back and drink beer planet are under quarantine. That stat was from a week ago so it’s probbaly even higher now.

The only one thing I’m certain of is the end of the world will start in China because Somebody ate, used as medicine, or got busy with some strange animal.
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Old 02-21-2020, 11:57 PM #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spartacus View Post
If it truly becomes a massive pandemic then all bets are off. CDC with the help of pharmaceutical companies has isolated the genome and have replicated synthetic strains for testing and are sending out batches to be tested on infected patients they think they can come up with a viable vaccine within three months. So let's hope for the best and prayers to all those that are infected and to those who have lost loved ones.
Agree with your sentiments, but I saw Dr. Fauci (CDC) on TV this last week saying that we'll be lucky to have a vaccine in a year. At least the pharma companies, since they can see big $$ in this vaccine, will be hot to get going on production.
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Old 02-22-2020, 12:15 AM #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iffykid View Post
With no one going to work in China there must be an over abundance of gasoline on the market, Why arnt gas prices plummeting? I could drive my 4runner more with cheaper gas prices.
Gas prices are falling---but not plummeting--- here in CA, but they were already beginning to fall before the big virus death scare and subsequent Chinese economic slowdown. It is theorized that the slowdown in oil demand from China's Covid19-related economic slowdown plus the ripple effect on other economies will depress world oil prices. But oil prices are not the same as gas prices. The retail price of the refined product usually very slowly follows a drop in oil price.
Personally, I always voice "support" for hybrid and electric cars... but mainly as a way to keep gas prices down for our thirsty dinosaur monster trucks (ha ha.)
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Old 02-22-2020, 11:01 AM #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spartacus View Post
If it truly becomes a massive pandemic then all bets are off. CDC with the help of pharmaceutical companies has isolated the genome and have replicated synthetic strains for testing and are sending out batches to be tested on infected patients they think they can come up with a viable vaccine within three months. So let's hope for the best and prayers to all those that are infected and to those who have lost loved ones.
There's a lot more testing that needs to happen - a vaccine is at least a year away, possibly more. That's the word straight from the director of the CDC as of last week. If we're going to stop this thing, it's through containment.

Edit: missed Pluton's comment before I posted this, somehow.
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Old 02-22-2020, 11:19 AM #13
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Apple adjusted their forecast down due to Corona virus. I work for a company/industry that does a lot of business in China (like many of us I imagine) and there are definitely signs that manufacturing and logistics in China will suffer for a while, which will probably affect product availability and prices. Industry tradeshows are getting cancelled, US folks are foregoing factory visits and regional workforces in factories are diminished. That much I know.

Tough to know the specifics and it depends on what sort of parts we're talking about. For us, there's probably enough on hand domestically and forecasted out factoring this that we should be okay for old 4runner parts. Just my $0.02.
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Old 02-22-2020, 12:09 PM #14
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[QUOTE=Jidaran;3447354]There's a lot more testing that needs to happen - a vaccine is at least a year away, possibly more. That's the word straight from the director of the CDC as of last week. If we're going to stop this thing, it's through containment.

Edit: missed Pluton's comment before

There are hundreds if not more labs big and small working on it and technology has advanced dramatically. What I said was what I read. They might be able to come up with a solution or they might not but hoping that they do sooner then later.

Last week, just over a month after the virus was reported, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) started shipping testing kits it developed to labs in the US and internationally. It was also able to start creating vaccines. Dozens are under development at pharmaceutical companies, and Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says that one vaccine candidate will enter clinical trials within three months.
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