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Old 03-19-2020, 09:45 PM #31
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Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%

consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets

those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:05 PM #32
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Originally Posted by fan of fanboys View Post
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center



this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%



consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets



those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020
Consider how many people were tested as the tests were not readily available and it the people can go 2 weeks without any symptoms and be infectious.

I believe 2 strains exist as well. Let's hope it dosent mutate and produce several other strains.

Time will tell how this plays out. I would be washing my hands and staying away from groups but that's me. Others can do as they wish.

Certain areas seem to be hit harder then others but we really didn't need this and it's a shame that the virus exists.




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Old 03-19-2020, 10:57 PM #33
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Originally Posted by fan of fanboys View Post
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%

consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets

those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020
What do you say to all the doctors right now with rooms overflowing with patients? This is not going to magically disappear. We are trying to prevent what's going on in Italy. Yes THOUSANDS die from the flu, but this is a new virus, and we can already see what happens when things tip out of balance just a bit. We can not stop this virus. We can slow it's spread so that there are not too many people with it at once.

That is the only goal.

If we had a Pandemic team, sensible regulations to deal with this would have already been put in place. Instead we have a bunch of people who AREN'T DOCTORS trying to monday morning quarterback things. Listen to the DOCTOR'S in the countries this has already hit. IDGAF what Johns Hopkins says. There are too many videos of too many people dying in hospitals. The point of all this is that we ALREADY have too many people dying from disease at any given time. If this spreads, millions could die because we simply don't have the equipment or capability to produce what is needed to treat the ones who will be hardest hit.
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Old 03-20-2020, 01:16 AM #34
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If we had a Pandemic team, sensible regulations to deal with this would have already been put in place.
Just to be clear:

“Claims that streamlining NSC structures impaired our nation's bio defense are false. Global health remained a top NSC priority, and its expert team was critical to effectively handling the 2018-19 Africa Ebola crisis.

Bolton defends decision to shutter NSC pandemic office | TheHill
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Old 03-20-2020, 08:18 AM #35
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Is it too much to ask that people be sympathetic and compassionate of other human beings that are infected with this virus?

No reason to disagree and argue on specifics.

The doctors, medical staff and first responders need our support and encouragement.

I rather not see families losing loved ones. Family pets getting infected etc.

Everyone needs to do their best in these troubling times.


As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived.




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Old 03-20-2020, 10:07 AM #36
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Originally Posted by shadow247 View Post
What do you say to all the doctors right now with rooms overflowing with patients? This is not going to magically disappear. We are trying to prevent what's going on in Italy. Yes THOUSANDS die from the flu, but this is a new virus, and we can already see what happens when things tip out of balance just a bit. We can not stop this virus. We can slow it's spread so that there are not too many people with it at once.

That is the only goal.

If we had a Pandemic team, sensible regulations to deal with this would have already been put in place. Instead we have a bunch of people who AREN'T DOCTORS trying to monday morning quarterback things. Listen to the DOCTOR'S in the countries this has already hit. IDGAF what Johns Hopkins says. There are too many videos of too many people dying in hospitals. The point of all this is that we ALREADY have too many people dying from disease at any given time. If this spreads, millions could die because we simply don't have the equipment or capability to produce what is needed to treat the ones who will be hardest hit.
so you just want to rant, I am here to listen

absolutely zero of what you said applies to me and what I said (btw Johns Hopkins is a world-class hospital full of world-class doctors)
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:08 AM #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brillo_76 View Post
Is it too much to ask that people be sympathetic and compassionate of other human beings that are infected with this virus?

No reason to disagree and argue on specifics.

The doctors, medical staff and first responders need our support and encouragement.

I rather not see families losing loved ones. Family pets getting infected etc.

Everyone needs to do their best in these troubling times.


As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived.




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"As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived"

well, I am pretty sure they are all dead. many from bacteria and viruses :-)
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:28 AM #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSaturnV View Post
Just to be clear:

“Claims that streamlining NSC structures impaired our nation's bio defense are false. Global health remained a top NSC priority, and its expert team was critical to effectively handling the 2018-19 Africa Ebola crisis.

Bolton defends decision to shutter NSC pandemic office | TheHill
I know I said I wouldn't get political, but...

You're quoting from a Bolton tweet. How is that proof of anything? Of course he'll claim that disbanding the pandemic team didn't effect readiness. Show me a pandemic expert who says Bolton's move didn't effect anything, that would have some meaning. But Bolton's opinion on his own move means exactly nada.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fan of fanboys View Post
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%

consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets

those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020
John Hopkins is legit. But where are you getting that mortality rate from? I just divided the deaths (~10,000) by the confirmed cases (~400,000) and got a mortality rate of 4%.

You're right that the mortality rate based on confirmed cases will drop as tests become more available. But it's not going to get down to 0.04%. South Korea, which has done more widespread testing than any other country, currently has about a 1% mortality rate... which is why the experts are suggesting we should expect something similar here.

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Luckily, viruses that deadly don't spread very far... in general. See: Ebola.
-Charlie
That's a really important point.

This isn't the worse case scenario (because there's always something worse). But it's pretty bad - high transmissible, lethal enough to cause chaos, not so lethal that it flames out.

Keep in mind, things start to change when you scale up. Many cases require hospitalization (looking like 20%, or 200 out of every 1000). Considering we have 2.8 beds per 1000 people in the US, Covid19 sweeping the country unchecked would overwhelm hospitals. If that 20% can't get to the hospital your 1% mortality rate starts to climb pretty quick. Not to mention all the other people already in the hospital, are we kicking them out? We're currently at 95% capacity.

It took a minute, but at this point most everyone agrees this is a big deal, Trump, the Democrats, news media, the entire medical establishment.... We've seen what's happened in other countries that didn't react quick enough (see: Italy, Iran) so it's not like we don't know what to expect.
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:40 AM #39
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I know I said I wouldn't get political, but...

You're quoting from a Bolton tweet. How is that proof of anything? Of course he'll claim that disbanding the pandemic team didn't effect readiness. Show me a pandemic expert who says Bolton's move didn't effect anything, that would have some meaning. But Bolton's opinion on his own move means exactly nada.


John Hopkins is legit. But where are you getting that mortality rate from? I just divided the deaths (~10,000) by the confirmed cases (~400,000) and got a mortality rate of 4%.

You're right that the mortality rate based on confirmed cases will drop as tests become more available. But it's not going to get down to 0.04%. South Korea, which has done more widespread testing than any other country, currently has about a 1% mortality rate... which is why the experts are suggesting we should expect something similar here.



That's a really important point.

This isn't the worse case scenario (because there's always something worse). But it's pretty bad - high transmissible, lethal enough to cause chaos, not so lethal that it flames out.

Keep in mind, things start to change when you scale up. Many cases require hospitalization (looking like 20%, or 200 out of every 1000). Considering we have 2.8 beds per 1000 people in the US, Covid19 sweeping the country unchecked would overwhelm hospitals. If that 20% can't get to the hospital your 1% mortality rate starts to climb pretty quick. Not to mention all the other people already in the hospital, are we kicking them out? We're currently at 95% capacity.

It took a minute, but at this point most everyone agrees this is a big deal, Trump, the Democrats, news media, the entire medical establishment.... We've seen what's happened in other countries that didn't react quick enough (see: Italy, Iran) so it's not like we don't know what to expect.
typo, thanks for catching. I meant to type .04, which would be 4%, but added the percent because thinking in my head vs typing got confused

I did not mean for that to be confusing/misleading, which it def. was.
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:49 AM #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSaturnV View Post
Just to be clear:

“Claims that streamlining NSC structures impaired our nation's bio defense are false. Global health remained a top NSC priority, and its expert team was critical to effectively handling the 2018-19 Africa Ebola crisis.

Bolton defends decision to shutter NSC pandemic office | TheHill
Of course they are going to defend their decision to disband the pandemic team. My problem is they are NOW finally doing something when three weeks ago many officials were privately telling their donors things were going to get bad, while telling all of us that it will be fine.
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Old 03-20-2020, 12:07 PM #41
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Washington’s DOH site is good. You can see all the numbers, age brackets, ect...
You can look at the actual numbers and then do your own speculating about the unknown.
Other states maybe have similar.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus

Be safe out there folks. How you handle yourself can have a broad impact on others.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:21 PM #42
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With Its COVID-19 Caseload Spiking To 14,000, Here’s Why Germany’s Mortality Rate Is .002%, Or 4000 Times Lower Than Italy’s

With Its COVID-19 Caseload Spiking To 14,000, Here’s Why Germany’s Mortality Rate Is .002%, Or 4000 Times Lower Than Italy’s
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Old 03-20-2020, 06:30 PM #43
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Talking

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"As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived"

well, I am pretty sure they are all dead. many from bacteria and viruses :-)
Everyone dies. I was referring to their ability to overcome many obstacles and flourish until they passed on. There always has be that one fellow. Humor is good and it does help get through situations.
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Old 03-20-2020, 06:38 PM #44
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Just wait to see what the numbers are when testing is actually readily available

This will take time get correct information. Sadly the news media thinks its a Jerry Springer show..
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Old 03-20-2020, 07:11 PM #45
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