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Old 04-29-2021, 10:12 PM #1
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PSA: Higher prices coming

Everything is going up. Gas, transportation costs, plastic, steel, etc. Have you notice the prices out there?
If your on the bubble of buying somekind of part for your 4runner it would be good to get it now before the new updated prices come online.
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Old 04-29-2021, 10:38 PM #2
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Everything is going up. Gas, transportation costs, plastic, steel, etc. Have you notice the prices out there?
If your on the bubble of buying somekind of part for your 4runner it would be good to get it now before the new updated prices come online.
When did prices go down last (other than gas)? I try to buy as soon as I can, generally.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:07 AM #3
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Too late my man. Average 220-240k mile 3rd gen was hovering around 4500-5500 pre-covid. Now 7-8k asking price. Xtra cab Tacomas regularly 9-11k in decent condition.

Seems to be the same for used parts, and new as well.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:26 AM #4
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Yup, noticed this too. I used to be able to fill my whole tank with just $20 on the Civic and now it's like $30 for a full tank lol. I have to get the timing belt kit and the LBJ's very soon for the 4Runner......
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:27 AM #5
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Yep. Even the wrecking yards here that sell used parts. It's crazy!
I literally saw a $50 part from last year go up another $30 this year.
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Old 04-30-2021, 05:28 AM #6
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Yes Crazy times. :-(
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Old 04-30-2021, 06:27 AM #7
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Honestly, this all feels like 2007~8 again to me, where things cost too much and it just feels like a "too good to be true" situation. We haven't gotten to the end of the mortgage and rent forbearance yet, I expect that'll be the start of the correction process.

So, I see it more like, if you're in a situation where you have something sitting around that you can SELL and cash in on this bubble, you might want to consider doing so. Personally, I have a feeling that 12~18 months from now we're going to see a lot more struggle. Buying anything right now, again based on my personal speculation of what's to come, will be buying at the top end of the market and whatever you've bought won't be worth 2/3rds that price in 2 years.
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Old 04-30-2021, 12:26 PM #8
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Honestly, this all feels like 2007~8 again to me, where things cost too much and it just feels like a "too good to be true" situation. We haven't gotten to the end of the mortgage and rent forbearance yet, I expect that'll be the start of the correction process.

So, I see it more like, if you're in a situation where you have something sitting around that you can SELL and cash in on this bubble, you might want to consider doing so. Personally, I have a feeling that 12~18 months from now we're going to see a lot more struggle. Buying anything right now, again based on my personal speculation of what's to come, will be buying at the top end of the market and whatever you've bought won't be worth 2/3rds that price in 2 years.
Some commodities with finite supply are more immune to correction like 3rd Gen 4Runners and property in some geographical areas - they're not making any more of these. Nearly all the BTC has been mined.
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Old 04-30-2021, 12:31 PM #9
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Quote:
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Honestly, this all feels like 2007~8 again to me, where things cost too much and it just feels like a "too good to be true" situation. We haven't gotten to the end of the mortgage and rent forbearance yet, I expect that'll be the start of the correction process.

So, I see it more like, if you're in a situation where you have something sitting around that you can SELL and cash in on this bubble, you might want to consider doing so. Personally, I have a feeling that 12~18 months from now we're going to see a lot more struggle. Buying anything right now, again based on my personal speculation of what's to come, will be buying at the top end of the market and whatever you've bought won't be worth 2/3rds that price in 2 years.
I don't think housing will correct hardly at all this time around though. Check the price of lumber. It's over 3x more expensive than it was at the peak of the housing craze in 2005-06. That means that builders have to charge more for their homes to keep the same profit margin, which they will. This will also tighten the already tight supply of inventory on the market, which is what we've seen now for over a year.

I don't think we are entering a period of hyperinflation where we will be taking wheelbarrows of cash to buy groceries, but inflation is very real right now. Any physical asset is going up in price very quickly, which includes vehicles. At least over here in CA we've been used to $4 a gallon gas for a few years already.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:02 PM #10
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yep, prices are going nuts up here too on everything....lumber is nuts. Even 4runners....example I need a fender. a few months ago a used fender was 100, its now 200.....stupid ( only one wrecker in town, not a pick and pull, and shipping anything from the lower 48 is $$$$$$$
and now these 4runner prices are going nuts. Might have to keep my 2001...been looking for a 99 or 2000.
here is one crazy example....and im sure its trashed. Bet the tranny has seen better days.

2001 Toyota 4 runner plow truck - cars & trucks - by owner - vehicle...

a 99 was on craigslist 2 days ago...just an SR-5 , cloth...same owner for 7 years, and it was listed at 12k and was off craigslist in 1 day.

paid 4500 for my 2001 in december, but I could flip it for at least 6 even with bad fender.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:49 PM #11
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Quote:
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Honestly, this all feels like 2007~8 again to me, where things cost too much and it just feels like a "too good to be true" situation. We haven't gotten to the end of the mortgage and rent forbearance yet, I expect that'll be the start of the correction process.

So, I see it more like, if you're in a situation where you have something sitting around that you can SELL and cash in on this bubble, you might want to consider doing so. Personally, I have a feeling that 12~18 months from now we're going to see a lot more struggle. Buying anything right now, again based on my personal speculation of what's to come, will be buying at the top end of the market and whatever you've bought won't be worth 2/3rds that price in 2 years.
I'd normally agree, but the government is literally dumping money in people's checking accounts. I'm not sure there will be a deflationary correction. This is straight up money printing. You are right that something will break sooner or later.
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Old 04-30-2021, 02:04 PM #12
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Debt increased by trillions in mere months, deficit is highest since WWII, government is printing more money for the sake of giving it out - and people are shocked there's inflation?
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Old 04-30-2021, 02:13 PM #13
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I'd normally agree, but the government is literally dumping money in people's checking accounts. I'm not sure there will be a deflationary correction. This is straight up money printing. You are right that something will break sooner or later.
Hard to say... I agree that prices cannot continue to progress in the way that they are but will they come down is a different question. There is clearly a willingness to attempt to print our way out of anything. We can't lower interest rates anymore unless they go negative (wtf?). I think that because of the 2008 crash, everyone is terrified any time there is downward pressure in the housing prices. There will be a willingness to correct any semblance of downward pressure. The government believes it is their responsibility to fix everything and the people believe they can. Most people seem to view the stimulus checks as their rich grandfather handing them money without realizing they and their children will be paying for it. Same with student loan forgiveness, etc. What happened to believing there is no free lunch? My biggest fear is that we destroy the dollar trying to subvert short term pain. If we become too volatile and lose our reserve currency status, this is no longer the country that it has been in the last century.

The currently hot economic theory (Modern Monetary Theory) posits that you can print money with near immunity. Printing money alone does not cause inflation essentially and deficits do not have a large impact on countries that control their own fiat currencies. This theory is being pushed in universities and is maintained by influential economists in high places. It is being sold as educational material which many believe to be completely true. Policies are being influenced by those that buy wholesale into the idea. I need to do more reading on it but it sounds non-sensical at face value. I think there are kernels of truth to it but it's playing with a nuclear bomb.

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Old 04-30-2021, 02:14 PM #14
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I see my view is contrary to several of you. It's all perspective, I'm in an ultra poor county where housing prices have now inflated 3x what they were just a couple years ago and there are no jobs that pay enough to support those prices. The one big employer, Georgia-Pacific, shut down their plant last year and haven't restarted, putting even more strain on the local economy. The piddly sum of "free money" is not Nearly enough to account for the price increases I'm seeing. Basically, my view is that this is a winch line working past it's load rating and resting on a sharp edge, it's going to snap, it's going to be chaotic when it snaps and a lot of people are going to suffer. Past that, I expect there will be price corrections simply because the demand won't be there anymore. The people who couldn't afford the toys that the "free money" allowed them to buy, will end up selling those toys to cover other, essential, costs. Those who bought in on high housing and get hit with high taxes that they can't afford, will sell (or default). It's not like employers are paying any more... my wife hasn't seen a raise of ANY kind in 6 years, and that raise was from changing employers, it only accounted for an extra thousand or so a year (medical field). I certainly haven't seen a raise/increase in income of any kind since ~2008.

Maybe it's simple hope that I haven't found myself pushed out of middle class and straight into poverty for good. Perhaps that fear is coloring my perspective... forcing me to Want economic correction that at least gets me back close to where I was in January 2020.
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Old 04-30-2021, 02:26 PM #15
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Hard to say... I agree that prices cannot continue to progress in the way that they are but will they come down is a different question. There is clearly a willingness to attempt to print our way out of anything. We can't lower interest rates anymore unless they go negative (wtf?). I think that because of the 2008 crash, everyone is terrified any time there is downward pressure in the housing prices. There will be a willingness to correct any semblance of downward pressure. The government believes it is their responsibility to fix everything and the people believe they can. Most people seem to view the stimulus checks as their rich grandfather handing them money without realizing they and their children will be paying for it. Same with student loan forgiveness, etc. What happened to believing there is no free lunch? My biggest fear is that we destroy the dollar trying to subvert short term pain. If we become too volatile and lose our reserve currency status, this is no longer the country that it has been in the last century.

The currently hot economic theory (Modern Monetary Theory) posits that you can print money with near immunity. Printing money alone does not cause inflation essentially and deficits do not have a large impact on countries that control their own fiat currencies. This theory is being pushed in universities and is maintained by influential economists in high places. I need to do more reading on it but it sounds non-sensical at face value. This theory is being pushed as educational material which many believe to be completely true. Policies are being influenced by those that buy wholesale into the idea. I think there are kernels of truth to it but it's playing with a nuclear bomb.
There is an excellent podcast called Hidden Forces about this stuff you should check. He has top tier exoerts on there and none of them even know wtf is going on. I suspect we'll get some sort of Japanese style stagflation.

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