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Old 07-17-2020, 11:21 PM #31
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Originally Posted by 02SE View Post
The 1GR that came out in 2002 for use in the 2003 4th gen 4Runner, has little in common with the 1GR in the 5th gen 4Runner.

Sure it's a still a 4 liter V6, but almost every part of the engine has been improved. The block, the crank, the cylinder heads, the intake, etc.
All true. I don't think it should still be called a 1GR. They share IIRC crank bearings. That's the only part I remember them being shared.

That said - they're still basically identical in bore/stroke. And they appear to be identical or very similar in tune throughout the low-mid rpms range. If you compare the power output the only real difference is at the top end of the RPM range. And the 1.2GR is still pretty poorly balanced for a modern v6. It's not smooth and doesn't like to be up at the higher rpms. The 3.5L is much smoother at higher rpms due to the shorter stroke and better balancing.
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Old 07-18-2020, 07:12 PM #32
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The assumptions are wrong because you're comparing 2wd Rav4 with the awd hybrid. AWD LE vs AWD LE hybrid is a more accurate comparison IMO. When you do the math with objective assumptions not seeking a predetermined outcome - the hybrid wins in almost any scenario.

The Rav4 hybrid option currently is $575. You can compare this yourself. Rav4LE AWD is $27,775. Rav4 LE hybrid AWD is $28,350.

MPG difference is 30mpg combined for the LE 40mpg combined for the LE hybrid.

The break even formula for miles driven is fuel cost per mile of the non hybrid equal to fuel cost per mile of the hybrid plus the cost difference.

In this case .03333(fuel price)(miles) = [.025(fuel price)(miles) + $575]

In this case if fuel is set to $2.50/gal the result is 27,600 miles to break even on new vehicle cost difference.

The batteries are warrantied for 10 years and 150k miles on all Toyota hybrids. So 10 years is a minimum no cost life, but typically they've been replaced around 20 years or 300k miles in actual service in larger fleets (taxi service). Generally they are never replaced in most hybrids. A reasonable actuarial value that I'd assign is let's say 5% chance of battery replacement at 10 years. Or risk adjusted value of $150 on a new vehicle.

Given that you'll save approximately $3125 in fuel during the warranty period, in the unlikely event you need a battery at that point, you're still very close to breaking even. But on a risk adjusted basis - your way ahead with the hybrid. Now - if you assume average fuel cost of $4, you're $5k ahead by that point so even with a battery replacement at year 10, it's still lower cost.

Assuming you keep it less than 10 years - the hybrid will break even with current pricing in about 2 years on fuel vs cost difference. And it'll resell for quite a bit more as well.

Using KBB - I priced two identical 3 year old Rav4 LE models. One hybrid. The other non-hybrid. The values were 22,327 vs 20,177. That's a difference in value at 3 years of $2,150. Resale value of the hybrid is significantly more than the new cost differential.

The cost to own the hybrid Rav4 is cheaper under almost every scenario when you use what I would consider the most reasonable unbiased assumptions - meaning the actual difference in price new of comparable models and value differential of resale along with a probability weighted battery replacement value.

The unknown is the actual price difference you'd pay for a new one. My guess is non-hybrids have bigger discounts anywhere that there is a supply constraint. Places where the supply is available of both are in the range of 70% or more taking the hybrid. I think the only reason not to choose a hybrid rav4 would be if you wanted the adventure model or similar that has a more capable awd system - the hybrid is not so great in more challenging terrain. - but... it's a rav4 who cares if it's good off road?

What system the 4Runner will get will probably be pretty obvious when the Tundra hybrid is finally released. Just for fun if the 4Runner were to have a hybrid that could bump it from 17mpg combined to 25mpg combined (I think very reasonable target, although I'd bet 30 is what it actually comes out as) you'd save $4700 over the first 100k miles on fuel at $2.50/gal and more like $7,500 at $4/gal. If it adds 100hp and 100ft/lbs of torque across the board, the ability to ford streams at any depth, and the ability to run as a generator at camp and use the battery for your fridge - I think the answer will be that i'll be very popular. OTOH if it's a NA 2.5L and weak hybrid with 240hp combined - I'm guessing it'll sell about as well as the 4cyl 2010 4runner did.



Side note:
The low cost fuel efficient cars went away for a few reasons.
Safety made them heavier.
And emissions requirements do not allow for lean burn engines anymore. That's what those were. A 3 way catalyitic converter requires a fuel ratio richer than stoichiometric to provide the un-burned fuel for the catalytic converter required for the NOx reductions. Use of ethanol based fuel makes this much worse. For the reaction to work properly ethanol based fuels must run approximately 30% rich. e85 for example wastes a ton of fuel to run the catalytic converter. The plus side is that the final emissions are much cleaner than the old lean-burn cars despite burning more fuel.

Dirty cheap fun cars are never coming back. But - I think cheap fun EVs are coming. And I'm guessing a few years down the road there will be some very fast cheap EVs available.
The Hybrid Rav4 is a much better car to drive than the conventional version, IMO. The Prime appears to be even better than the hybrid. I agree that the only downside of the hybrid is the AWD system. That said, there is no reason that power can't go through a traditional transfer case in a hybrid 4Runner versus doing the decoupled AWD setup of the Rav4.

As an aside, while I don't think it is coming, but I'd be all over a 4Runner Prime. I put 900 miles on my 4Runner from Saturday through Wednesday driving through WV state parks and various outdoors jaunts. Having the ability to just put gas in and keep trucking is fantastic for the things I like to do. Being able to commute largely gas free and have an 80hp bump would let me have my cake and eat it, too. The only real downside is the weight gain that comes with the batteries. The Rav4 Prime is ~400lbs heavier than the hybrid model. At least the 4Runner seems to have considerable space for the sizable battery.
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Old 07-19-2020, 12:22 AM #33
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I get your point, but I still don't see a need for this on a BOF 4x4.
A unibody cross over is a different class of vehicle. If you really want to go deep off road then you will spend a bunch of money and you won't want to bash your very expensive Land Rover Evoque, Audi Q4, Porsche Macan, etc on some big rocks or go desert blasting.

With all that in mind you sacrifice handling and gas mileage for BOF. So you have to choose what you want to do with it.

I see a few reasons the T4R is still BOF and needs to stay that way.

The first is rigidity. I might be completely wrong (not a automotive rigidity engineer here), but I don't believe that you can get the same rigidity out of a unibody car that weighs nearly 5000lbs in stock trim unlaidened.

If you put a jack under one corner of any unibody car and open the door you will see and feel the flex. You do the same to a modern BOF truck, it shouldn't care.

Why do we care about stress flex? Because eventually it leads to rattles and squeaks from loosened joints and spot welds. That leads to failures and complaints. Some hard off roading in a unibody will ruin it.

You could save some weight by using unibody but there is more. . .

Next we have the durability of the undercarriage. You can easily lift/jack a BOF truck from just about any solid point underneath it. With a unibody you need be deliberate about where you place jacks and jackstands. It's what you might call delicate. You can add skid plates to the unibody but it's additional weight and you would also need solid mounting points every 30 cm or so. Which is sort of a frame.

Third is you can't do a body lift on a unibody. Not that people do much of this, but it is an option for what it's worth.

Fourth is towing capacity. Most crossovers I've seen are limited to 3500lbs or less. The T4R is not a towing beast but it's a respectable 5000 lbs. You can tow a reasonable size car or a large boat.

The last and very important part is you cannot easily modify a unibody. The off road community loves their mods. The ability to stick a metal bumper on there, rock sliders or even cut the body to shreds is a fact. I welded my rock sliders on my Taco to the frame. You can't really weld to thin sheet metal. To do the same you would need a set of plates to distribute the force and weld them in strategically. Or you drill though the metal with plates on both sides. This is how we put roll cages in modern cars. The difference is roll cages are single use and the have been known to break welds and punch through metal.

There are very few unibody off road vehicles (with a 4Lo transfer case) for a many reasons. The only one I think might have 4lo is the VW Touareg?

If it could be done reliably and still be affordable Toyota would be all over it.
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Old 07-19-2020, 02:55 PM #34
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Originally Posted by Quentin View Post
The Hybrid Rav4 is a much better car to drive than the conventional version, IMO. The Prime appears to be even better than the hybrid. I agree that the only downside of the hybrid is the AWD system. That said, there is no reason that power can't go through a traditional transfer case in a hybrid 4Runner versus doing the decoupled AWD setup of the Rav4.

As an aside, while I don't think it is coming, but I'd be all over a 4Runner Prime. I put 900 miles on my 4Runner from Saturday through Wednesday driving through WV state parks and various outdoors jaunts. Having the ability to just put gas in and keep trucking is fantastic for the things I like to do. Being able to commute largely gas free and have an 80hp bump would let me have my cake and eat it, too. The only real downside is the weight gain that comes with the batteries. The Rav4 Prime is ~400lbs heavier than the hybrid model. At least the 4Runner seems to have considerable space for the sizable battery.
If there is ever a 4Runner prime - I'm in. Give me 40 miles of EV range and say 400hp combined with a 300hp v6. And price it reasonably comparably to the Prime vs normal Rav. If Toyota does that with the tundra - they'll probably sell just as well as the rav prime. Apparently Toyota only allocated the first year's production to 11 states that have EV requirements and even with that limit all of 2021's production is already taken. So for me to get one I'll have to find one in California, or wait until at least the 2022 model year to order one from my local dealers.

Interestingly - The model Y had a price cut and now is offering a cheap lease option... I suspected the Rav Prime would cut heavily into Model Y sales. Seems early to already be having trouble selling the Y though. The Rav is a better mousetrap. If it ever gets into full production I think they'll sell a shit ton of them.

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Old 07-19-2020, 04:32 PM #35
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New power plant?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetboy View Post
If there is ever a 4Runner prime - I'm in. Give me 40 miles of EV range and say 400hp combined with a 300hp v6. And price it reasonably comparably to the Prime vs normal Rav. If Toyota does that with the tundra - they'll probably sell just as well as the rav prime. Apparently Toyota only allocated the first year's production to 11 states that have EV requirements and even with that limit all of 2021's production is already taken. So for me to get one I'll have to find one in California, or wait until at least the 2022 model year to order one from my local dealers.

Interestingly - The model Y had a price cut and now is offering a cheap lease option... I suspected the Rav Prime would cut heavily into Model Y sales. Seems early to already be having trouble selling the Y though. The Rav is a better mousetrap. If it ever gets into full production I think they'll sell a shit ton of them.
I’d definitely be in with those stats.

Supposedly Toyota will have capacity for 20k per year after model year 2021 (which is, like you said, limited to 5000 units in particular markets).


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Old 07-22-2020, 01:13 PM #36
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Wife has a new Rav4 hybrid. It's great for the price and perfect for what we use it for - driving around town with occasional non-outdoors trips to the mtns.
It has a better torque to weight ratio and transmission so it's more enjoyable to drive in the mtns than the 4runner which ends up in 3rd gear the entire f**king time.
The hybrids drive far better than the regular rav4 and since I live in CO a 2wd car was never an option so, yes, the cost difference really was ~$500 which is a bargain.
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Old 07-22-2020, 04:05 PM #37
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Wife has a new Rav4 hybrid. It's great for the price and perfect for what we use it for - driving around town with occasional non-outdoors trips to the mtns.
It has a better torque to weight ratio and transmission so it's more enjoyable to drive in the mtns than the 4runner which ends up in 3rd gear the entire f**king time.
The hybrids drive far better than the regular rav4 and since I live in CO a 2wd car was never an option so, yes, the cost difference really was ~$500 which is a bargain.
Anything with an electric motor or turbo is going to perform better at Altitude here compared to the 1GR. I'll go for the Hybrid or Turbo 10/10 times over a comparably powered NA engine.
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:18 PM #38
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I’d definitely be in with those stats.

Supposedly Toyota will have capacity for 20k per year after model year 2021 (which is, like you said, limited to 5000 units in particular markets).


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I hope this is wrong. 20k per year is maybe 10% of what they should be producing at best. I think they'd sell more like 200K or more units if they'd make them. IMO the rav4 prime is Toyota's ford Bronco in it's own market - hit it out of the park on everything in the CUV world. But 20k units is really disappointing if that's the case. It checks every box for me as a people mover. And I want to buy one as soon as they're actually available in my state, which now is looking like at least 2022.

The new Venza is the same way. Although kinda meh to me, they said that they had planned on around 3k sales per month as a target and then got orders for 50k in the first few days of opening up the dealer order system.
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:53 PM #39
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The new Venza is the same way. Although kinda meh to me, they said that they had planned on around 3k sales per month as a target and then got orders for 50k in the first few days of opening up the dealer order system.
Yeah I never understood the Venza. They have the Highlander and the Lexus RX350. All three are on the same. Maybe it's supposed to be the Camary Wagon?
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:06 PM #40
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Yeah I never understood the Venza. They have the Highlander and the Lexus RX350. All three are on the same. Maybe it's supposed to be the Camary Wagon?
It used to be that the RX350 and Harrier were the same model with different names. 2011 Harrier looks pretty familiar right?



And then around 2014 or so the harrier was updated to a new generation based on the Rav4's new TNGA platform while the RX got a facelift and otherwise stayed the same and - even to this day the RX hasn't updated it's platform and still is essentially a carryover on the older K platform since at least 2010.

Now that they're different, Toyota is bringing the Harrier back to the USA under the old name of Venza. **** - why not just call it an FJ Cruiser? Since we're recycling names...

Anyway - yeah, it's basically what the Fortuner is to the 3rd gen 4Runner - the real successor while the USA got a bigger version. The Harrier is a same-size successor to the earlier RX models where the USA version got bigger. So it's half way between a Rav/NX and an RX/Highlander in size and a big jump up in luxury from the Rav. Probably right on par with the RX interior wise. Do we need another one in the middle? no. I don't think it fills any gap in terms of size - but offers a Toyota branded luxury midsize SUV that the RAV and Highlander don't really do. Kinda like the Avalon/Camry/ES350. This is the Avalon to the RX/Highlander.

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Old 07-23-2020, 03:57 PM #41
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Yah, it's like there is no real differentiator between the lot of cute utes. I get the highlander/RX deal or the Rav-4/NX. Family vs luxury, but why muddy the mix when the Rav-4 is soooo huge now anyway.

2021 Toyota Venza | Toyota Official Site

Why not just buy the Lexus? Sometimes too many choices is not a good thing. People get confused and go buy a Honda, because it come with everything and you pick the color.
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Old 07-23-2020, 10:27 PM #42
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Imagine if the Venza looked this good? Something really different from the RAV.


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Old 07-24-2020, 12:26 AM #43
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Imagine if the Venza looked this good? Something really different from the RAV.


Umph. I threw up a little in my mouth. What planet did that come from?
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:29 PM #44
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People buy 4runners because they DON'T want a vehicle that is following the current trends. 4Runner has been refusing to change for years, and is selling better than ever.

Aging Toyota 4Runner is more popular than ever | The Spokesman-Review

Stupid auto journalists are going to hate on toyota no matter what, there is no sense in trying to appease them.

I don't want a turbo engine in a 4runner, there are lots of other options out there if this is what appeals to you. If you want fuel economy, you won't be buying a BOF SUV to begin with, so whats the point in changing the most important mechanical component?
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:58 PM #45
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screw all the hybrid stuff...give me a 4cyl turbo diesel with a 6spd transmission (auto or manual).
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