IHME does a lot of data crunching and modeling around this coronavirus pandemic. Their forecasts are used for preparedness plans and by the media for talking points. See link below for an example of the dire warning on an impending shortage of hospital beds based on IHME models.

As it turns out, actual hospital bed utilization is way below IHME predictions. The closest model might be Florida where actual beds needed / model forecast is 47%. In New York it’s about 36%.

If you thought that’s ok because they’ll update the model as more data rolls in, you’d be wrong. They haven’t updated any of their models.

Their models for fatality predictions are used widely as well by the way. Those are very likely way off as well.

New COVID-19 Forecasts: US Hospitals Could Be Overwhelmed in the Second Week of April by Demand for ICU Beds, and US Deaths Could Total 81,000 by July | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Thanks for the info.

I just focused on the letter as a valid piece of data or ‘factoid.’ It would never be picked up by our handful of more mainstream “news” organizations. I do the same with their (mainstream “news”) tabloid spins, strip everything out but facts and data but there’s hardly any of it there most of the time.

Somebody has to pay for UBI. Illegal to catch rainwater...Next will be taxation for each breath we take.

Talking head on the Today Show this morning said the song “Lean on me” could “literally be the official song for this pandemic.”

Wouldn’t be a song more along the lines of “Get away from me and stand the f@#$ over there.”

Do the models take into account the lack of non china virus cases. Some hospitals are starting to lay people off. No one is going because of the "plandemic".

All you can do is laugh, at times (at plandemic).

So appropriate though.

Oh, I get it now. You know more than the experts who do this as a career.

You say “ As it turns out, actual hospital bed utilization is way below IHME predictions. The closest model might be Florida where actual beds needed / model forecast is 47%. In New York it’s about 36%.”
Where did you get this gem of a factoid? (no citation). Don’t believe it. And the sick and dying health care workers in NYC might disagree with your skepticism.

As for models, you say “ They haven’t updated any of their models.”
Wrong.
We’re getting real time data now from hospitals. Data is used to update assumptions made when a model is designed. Build model, make best assumptions with data you have, as new data tolls in you update model and it gets more accurate. That’s how modeling works.
The article you linked actually states:
“IHME will update the analysis routinely as a source of “real-time” information for hospital system administrators and local, state, and federal health policymakers. The analysis is based on an extensive range of information and data sources, including:

-Local governments, national governments, and the World Health Organization
Government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies
-Data from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital bed and ICU capacity and average annual utilization of these services by state
-Data on COVID-19-related demand for ICU services in the United States
-Age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea, and the US”

And the article linked within that parent article further states:
“The model was last updated at 7 a.m. Pacific, April 2, 2020 and will be updated again on Saturday, April 4.“

I’m not sure what your angle is in all of this. But keep it coming. Thanks for linking to that article.

Currently the journalism profession is a joke. I laugh when commercials are shown demonstrating their value to the community. Not that they are not reporting, it’s the sources they are getting their data from. We get a veneer version of the truth. The sources work for the industries that are being reported on and that prevents the real story from being told.

Fox News?

I'd say all of 'em report with twisting of facts that support their political bias (right or left). Seems very few truly objective outlets left these days. Although, from what I've seen historically it would be naive to think there was ever widespread reporting without bias influences of some sort. It appears jouralism has always been a tool used for manipulating the masses.

The news industry has become monetized. The corporations that own and deliver the content have shareholders to impress, so it’s mostly entertainment with lots of sensationalism deliberately built in.

Some fun reading. Don't know how to link a PDF "How to report cause of death on death certificates for cases involving COVID-19" 02April2020.

NVSS - COVID-19 Alerts and Information

“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death"

Looks like WHO put out these guidelines and of course CDC follows.

Attached Images

 

The “angle” is stupid simple. Every day the actual number of coronavirus victims in ICU beds divided by the number predicted by IHME models is <<1. You’d think they would recalibrate their models to at least get closer to actual numbers. But they don’t.

There’s marketing and then there’s reality. You can quote their marketing till the cows come home but it doesn’t change reality. Their models are way off.

By the way, Bill Gates funds the IHME. He also funds the WHO. More funny, odd coincidences,

Maybe we should expect a spiraling out of control coronavirus death tally over the next few weeks.

The CDC is now advising healthcare workers to effectively guess that a fatality was caused by coronavirus.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/c...-19-deaths.pdf

As posted above, they get to assume. "Trust the system!"