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Old 12-14-2020, 11:02 PM #46
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The case for hybrids is less and less about MPG and more about the experience they provide. Do you realize that Toyota sells hybrids as a premium over their gas counterparts? There's a reason for that... they drive and behave better, are more reliable, and more desirable.

Toyota hybrids offer seamless operation in low speed driving, immediate power via electric motors when you need it, silent operation, and... oh yeah... great MPG. And with a 150k mile powertrain warranty. Those are things people are willing to pay a premium for - in spades. Toyota can barely keep hybrid models on their lots.

After spending time in our family's RAV4 hybrid as well as Camry hybrids, the Venza, the Lexus ES 300h and RX 450h, a hybrid 4Runner would be a great addition. And with Toyota's promise to have a hybrid model of every vehicle by 2025, it's not that far off.
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Old 12-17-2020, 01:19 PM #47
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I believe in the NIO battery swap idea as well. They have charging ports like normal, but also can be a BAAS lease model where you don't own the battery and it'll swap a new one in five minutes.
I think EV is here to stay as battery technology is changing. I imagine there are alternatives out there that are super efficient, but not released or manufactured yet.
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Old 12-17-2020, 02:51 PM #48
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Regarding overall timeline to swap to EV in general, my bother works at an oil and gas exploration company in Houston, and during the big drop in oil prices earlier in the year, they had to do some serious thinking about the future of oil and gas.

The time line is something like this (as I remember it from a phone conversation 6 months ago):
The exploration they are doing now, will not be developed into production for 5-7 years.

Anything they turn to production must be profitable for 25-30 years for it to be a financially worthwhile venture.

If development of electric technology proceeds as expected (ie no new massively game changing tech, or walls that stop development), they expect electric will be more efficient and cost effective than gas in 35-40 years. That is INCLUDING the massive advantage gas has with an established and widely available delivery infrastructure. So that is the longest oil and gas will be dominant, and probably the last several years of that it'll pretty much be a toss up between the two.

So if oil and gas prices don't come up in the next couple years, the exploration won't happen, new fields won't be developed, gas prices will go up, and it'll drive the timeline toward electric faster.

If governments or private industry put a lot of money into developing the electric infrastructure, it'll also shift the time line toward electric.

So enjoy your ICE while they are around. I imagine getting a non-EV 2040 Gen 6 4runner will be as easy as getting a current one with a stick shift.

Also, watch The Long Way Up. Ewan McGregor and his buddy drive EV Harley's on the Pan American from Argentina to Los Angeles. With two Rivian EV trucks as support. It's pretty interesting.
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