New Car Market Observation

[djeepin]

Thanks to our wizards for current condition in our land of Oz, new car marked getting saturated with T4R. Is it time to shop for good deal?

 

[Humble Leader]

I'll sell you my 2012 limited, full service history to a T, 156k miles, $45k. it's a good deal, trust me. comes with 2 sets of tires/rims too

 

[SeattleDude]

maybe depending on the area. in PNW we are not even close to be saturated.

but maybe by the end of this year we might actually have a 4runner or two at the dealerships lot to be able to test drive one.

MSRP is still "Amazing" deal for ORP or TRD Pro.

 

[wsu_runner]

Thanks to our wizards for current condition in our land of Oz, new car marked getting saturated with T4R. Is it time to shop for good deal?

Perhaps in your local area, but not for any that I've researched. Local dealers are still charging $10k+ for a Pro and have a difficult time keeping most trim levels on the lot. For my part, I've been waiting months for an allocation since I'm not willing to pay the local markups, and I'm going to end up driving hundreds of miles to get it home once I take delivery.

The question probably isn't one of market saturation, but rather market demand. Demand is still plentiful in these parts.

 

[Buba1]

Here in Canada, Ontario to be more specific, the TRD Pros used are still selling for higher than MSRP, and people are buying them actually. I guess when you must have it, you are willing to pay anything above and beyond.

 

[gptoy09]

No saturation in western Canada either. A little shorter wait for T4R than other models, but still a wait. Nothing on the lot, everything gone before they get here. Waiting about 1.5 months for mine, compared to 4+ months for premium Tacoma.

 

[2021nightshade4x4]

Do not mistake the abundance of late 5th Gen used ones for market saturation. People are “seeing what they can get”.

The seller equivalent of a tire kicker.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[rooplstilskin]

I know the going advice right now is to buy new, but used prices are coming down, and deals can be found.

My personal situation: In a small Juke, which worked well with myself and a medium dog. Last year, grew to 2 dogs, 1 large. and that hatchback isn't cutting it, even with a roof rack.

Options:

Used: getting a lot for my juke, and paying the overprice is a flat trade mostly.

Pros: Its used so if youre going to beat it up, better for your mental health and wallet.

Cons: its used, and much closer to the original msrp than a standard market.


New: Wait 2-6 months, but get a brand spankin new rig.

Pros: its new, its all yours

Cons: Its new, and any roughness with it (even though its extremely capable, mis-judging a tree by a foot as your wheel slips can cost thousands) can cost.

Many mods will void your warranty.

Currently, because of the chip shortage, QA was lowered for all chips in all car manufacturers. Many industry experts are guessing that a lot of cars for 20-23 will have problems not seen before. and electrical problems suck


So i searched for ~1 month, and found a 2016 Trail Premium with 70k miles, for 33k, which included the Colorado 4runner mark up here, and talked them down to 30k.

A bit overpriced, and i could have afforded a new at 50k, but now i have left over cash for improvements, care a little less if I ding something, and am more empowered to mod it at my own will.

 

[wsu_runner]

Currently, because of the chip shortage, QA was lowered for all chips in all car manufacturers. Many industry experts are guessing that a lot of cars for 20-23 will have problems not seen before. and electrical problems suck

Can you share your source for this info? I'd like to read more.

 

[rooplstilskin]

Can you share your source for this info? I'd like to read more.

I work for a company that makes some of the technology used to make computer chips for cars/appliances/etc. I have some knowledge on how the certification process works for corporations that make the chips themselves. just a bunch of hearsay of my own opinion.

But this article does go over it a bit, while talking about why they don't move to newer, more efficient manufacturing processes:

MSN


Basically Pre-Chip Shortage, chips hit a quality standard minimum based on federal standards AND then some automakers upped that quality based on their company standards/reputation whatever. they use an older process called 'lithographic' designed wafers.

During chip shortage we have seen automakers basically start accepting chips of lower quality, but still hitting that minimum safety/federal requirement. This is like accepting a wafer with a scuffed edge, or having a wafer with 10 chips and 1 having a bent cap, etc. and in the past they wouldn't accept these, now they do. Like so: Toyota embracing small flaws as supply chain pressures bite | Reuters and so: Toyota OKs Use of Imperfect Parts to Keep Production Going

are they putting in bad chips? definitely not, especially since toyota initially stockpiled electronics, but personally, I trust them a bit less than wafers produced pre-shortage. and definitely wouldn't recommend any 1st year models that was released during the shortage.

 

[TRDHULK]

I'm in the car business. Take my advice, buy new at sticker or less if at all possible. There are no good pre owned deals to be had unless you get lucky.

 

[Terrapod]

My wife works directly with two major manufacturers. In a recent all-hands meeting, both of them said the following statement:

"...we fully expect to see the supply chain get back up to speed by the end of 3rd Q 2022. By 4th Q 2022, there will be a glut of vehicles entering the market. Vehicles that must be moved. Look for heavy incentives to take effect then, as well."

After hearing this firsthand, we are waiting till the end of the year into 2023 to buy.

 

[wsu_runner]

I work for a company that makes some of the technology used to make computer chips for cars/appliances/etc. I have some knowledge on how the certification process works for corporations that make the chips themselves. just a bunch of hearsay of my own opinion.

But this article does go over it a bit, while talking about why they don't move to newer, more efficient manufacturing processes:

MSN


Basically Pre-Chip Shortage, chips hit a quality standard minimum based on federal standards AND then some automakers upped that quality based on their company standards/reputation whatever. they use an older process called 'lithographic' designed wafers.

During chip shortage we have seen automakers basically start accepting chips of lower quality, but still hitting that minimum safety/federal requirement. This is like accepting a wafer with a scuffed edge, or having a wafer with 10 chips and 1 having a bent cap, etc. and in the past they wouldn't accept these, now they do. Like so: Toyota embracing small flaws as supply chain pressures bite | Reuters and so: Toyota OKs Use of Imperfect Parts to Keep Production Going

are they putting in bad chips? definitely not, especially since toyota initially stockpiled electronics, but personally, I trust them a bit less than wafers produced pre-shortage. and definitely wouldn't recommend any 1st year models that was released during the shortage.

Good info, thanks. Lots of folks are speaking non-authoritatively but it sounds likes you and yours have first-hand knowledge. I'm aware of some of the non-chip-related articles but hadn't heard that chips were directly impacted and was curious.

I work in an unrelated industry and indirectly dependent on chip availability (at significant scale). I wanted to hear more about your data and sources to 1)determine impact on my professional role, and 2)more importantly, determine impact on lead times for my 4runner Thanks for sharing.

 

[fastcars1971]

Very few Good Used 4runners

I live in a city with 450k population. There are very few good used 4runners available for sale by owner or at the dealer. The shortage is real and the prices continue to rise.