Member
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Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Galveston, TX
Posts: 45
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Galveston, TX
Posts: 45
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Regarding overall timeline to swap to EV in general, my bother works at an oil and gas exploration company in Houston, and during the big drop in oil prices earlier in the year, they had to do some serious thinking about the future of oil and gas.
The time line is something like this (as I remember it from a phone conversation 6 months ago):
The exploration they are doing now, will not be developed into production for 5-7 years.
Anything they turn to production must be profitable for 25-30 years for it to be a financially worthwhile venture.
If development of electric technology proceeds as expected (ie no new massively game changing tech, or walls that stop development), they expect electric will be more efficient and cost effective than gas in 35-40 years. That is INCLUDING the massive advantage gas has with an established and widely available delivery infrastructure. So that is the longest oil and gas will be dominant, and probably the last several years of that it'll pretty much be a toss up between the two.
So if oil and gas prices don't come up in the next couple years, the exploration won't happen, new fields won't be developed, gas prices will go up, and it'll drive the timeline toward electric faster.
If governments or private industry put a lot of money into developing the electric infrastructure, it'll also shift the time line toward electric.
So enjoy your ICE while they are around. I imagine getting a non-EV 2040 Gen 6 4runner will be as easy as getting a current one with a stick shift.
Also, watch The Long Way Up. Ewan McGregor and his buddy drive EV Harley's on the Pan American from Argentina to Los Angeles. With two Rivian EV trucks as support. It's pretty interesting.
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2019 ORP
Dobinsons suspension- Front:C59-314 / GS59-700 Rear:C59-325 / GS59-701
SSO Slimline bumper with Warn VR Evo 10-S, LFD Offroad crossbars
Diode Dynamics SS3 fogs,GE Megalight Ultra +130 low beam
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