Well, I did plugs and wires today. I also cleaned the throttle body and and MAF while I was at it, even though they weren't in bad shape and I don't think were likely culprits or contributors anyway, given the intermittent nature (at least for the throttle body). Plugs looked good, but the contacts on the coils for 4 and 6 were heavily corroded, and the #4 wire was missing part of the female coil connector... I don't know if that was a coincidence (p0304), or the culprit, guess we'll find out.
As for hot starting, this issue doesn't seem to care about temperature; sometimes it'll happen on a cold morning, sometimes when stopping for 5 minutes after running errands all day. Something is failing/malfunctioning intermittently; possibly mechanical, but I'm betting electrical. An injector, or even fuel pump would make sense (at least for hard starting), although I'm not sure yet how fuel pressure before the rail would cause a misfire in only one cylinder... if it throws another code and doesn't follow the coil (would be p0306 now), I'll go ahead and replace the #4 injector. It does seem that failing injectors in these seem to be a fairly hot forum topic...
Edit: did some searching on fuel pumps and it seems that these tend to get tired between 150-200K miles, so I might do it anyway, since I'm at 195k. It sure wouldn't hurt anything.