3rd gen 4runner is a good Toilet Paper Apocalypse rig.

[jross20]

This is far more lethal than Swine Flu, we're looking at around a 1% mortality rate (50x Swine Flu). The reason so few have died is that it's still early on and we've also quickly (though not quickly enough) engaged in mitigation strategies. This is real and very very serious.

There are always people that panic in any situation - the fact that some people are acting irrationally doesn't mean there's nothing to fear.

We should all expect significant disruption for the next month or two and it's possible we won't be fully back to normal until we get a vaccine - which might not happen till 2021.

I don't really like talking politics or really anything non-auto related on here, so I'll end with this. If you're planning to do any work on your truck in the next few months, I'd order the parts now. Depending on your job you might have a lot of down time and supply lines could be significantly disrupted moving foward.

Not trying to get political either... But honestly, a 1% mortality rate doesn't sound that bad to me. I mean, 1% for a virus we have no antibodies or medication for? I think we are doing pretty good.

To me, I'd be scared if it was 50%, and I would be panicking if it was 80%-100%. That would be a "pandemic" in my eyes. Like people dropping dead left and right within 12-36 hours. That would be some insane stuff!
I'd be throwing the girlfriend and our toilet paper in the rig and 4x4'ing the hell out of dodge into the mountains.
:wow:

I'm really curious if all this panic is due to the new age of social media... The internet wasn't a thing in the past and a lot of young people don't know how to handle something like this. Older folks have already gone through scares before so it isn't much new.

And some of us, like me, just don't worry about it. If I get sick, I get sick. Not going to stop living my life.
When you've been cheated for years due to medical nonsense you were born with, you tend to be highly opposed to go back to not living again.

Honestly with my luck I probably have a better chance of getting nailed by a drunk in georgia... Haha
(That would suck though, don't hit my truck dammit!)

 

[dogtail]

On a good note my well connected Chinese friend says China manufactures are back to work. I saw on the news no new cases there today. Hopefully things blow over quickly in the US.

 

[brillo_76]

On a good note my well connected Chinese friend says China manufactures are back to work. I saw on the news no new cases there today. Hopefully things blow over quickly in the US.

Well that started in December so that's 90 days out. We can hope.

Sent from my SM-J337V using Tapatalk

 

[mesooohoppy]

Not trying to get political either... But honestly, a 1% mortality rate doesn't sound that bad to me. I mean, 1% for a virus we have no antibodies or medication for? I think we are doing pretty good.

there are 327.2 million people in america. if you do the quick math thats 3.272 million dead for a 1% mortality rate. not sure how that 'doesnt sound that bad' to you.

 

[jross20]

there are 327.2 million people in america. if you do the quick math thats 3.272 million dead for a 1% mortality rate. not sure how that 'doesnt sound that bad' to you.

Sure 3.2 million is a lot when we say it, but it is still a very tiny percentage of the whole nation. And most of those are probably going to be people with compromised health. It is depressing to look at it that way, but it is what it is.

I'm not saying it doesn't suck, yeah it sucks, but if we are panicking about 1%, what would happen if we had something at 25%/50%/75%+?

The situation isn't great, but it definitely is not a "end of the world" situation right now. That is my point. There are a lot of people who are treating it that way which is crazy. One of my employees went on a cruise 2 weeks ago, everything was fine. He is like me, it is what is it.

 

[phattyduck]

I'm not saying it doesn't suck, yeah it sucks, but if we are panicking about 1%, what would happen if we had something at 25%/50%/75%+?

Luckily, viruses that deadly don't spread very far... in general. See: Ebola.

-Charlie

 

[brillo_76]

Do you guys and girls really think these numbers are actually accurate? Do you honestly think they shut entire countries if the infection rate is 1 person infects 3?

If we want to discuss these kinds of things. It's best to go a group chat or pm group.

I just hope and pray for the safety of everyone in this crazy time.



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[jross20]

Luckily, viruses that deadly don't spread very far... in general. See: Ebola.

-Charlie

Agreed, I am thankful for that. Can you imagine if rabies spread super easily? Lord.

Also...for anyone who cares, gas is $1.59 at a few places near me!

 

[fan of fanboys]

I have used a bidet for years. I could get by without no TP the rest of my life as long as I am at home

 

[fan of fanboys]

there are 327.2 million people in america. if you do the quick math thats 3.272 million dead for a 1% mortality rate. not sure how that 'doesnt sound that bad' to you.

1% of those infected, not 1% of the entire population

 

[fan of fanboys]

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%

consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets

those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020

 

[brillo_76]

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center



this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%



consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets



those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020

Consider how many people were tested as the tests were not readily available and it the people can go 2 weeks without any symptoms and be infectious.

I believe 2 strains exist as well. Let's hope it dosent mutate and produce several other strains.

Time will tell how this plays out. I would be washing my hands and staying away from groups but that's me. Others can do as they wish.

Certain areas seem to be hit harder then others but we really didn't need this and it's a shame that the virus exists.




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[shadow247]

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%

consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets

those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020

What do you say to all the doctors right now with rooms overflowing with patients? This is not going to magically disappear. We are trying to prevent what's going on in Italy. Yes THOUSANDS die from the flu, but this is a new virus, and we can already see what happens when things tip out of balance just a bit. We can not stop this virus. We can slow it's spread so that there are not too many people with it at once.

That is the only goal.

If we had a Pandemic team, sensible regulations to deal with this would have already been put in place. Instead we have a bunch of people who AREN'T DOCTORS trying to monday morning quarterback things. Listen to the DOCTOR'S in the countries this has already hit. IDGAF what Johns Hopkins says. There are too many videos of too many people dying in hospitals. The point of all this is that we ALREADY have too many people dying from disease at any given time. If this spreads, millions could die because we simply don't have the equipment or capability to produce what is needed to treat the ones who will be hardest hit.

 

[TheSaturnV]

If we had a Pandemic team, sensible regulations to deal with this would have already been put in place.

Just to be clear:

“Claims that streamlining NSC structures impaired our nation's bio defense are false. Global health remained a top NSC priority, and its expert team was critical to effectively handling the 2018-19 Africa Ebola crisis.

Bolton defends decision to shutter NSC pandemic office | TheHill

 

[brillo_76]

Is it too much to ask that people be sympathetic and compassionate of other human beings that are infected with this virus?

No reason to disagree and argue on specifics.

The doctors, medical staff and first responders need our support and encouragement.

I rather not see families losing loved ones. Family pets getting infected etc.

Everyone needs to do their best in these troubling times.


As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived.




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[fan of fanboys]

What do you say to all the doctors right now with rooms overflowing with patients? This is not going to magically disappear. We are trying to prevent what's going on in Italy. Yes THOUSANDS die from the flu, but this is a new virus, and we can already see what happens when things tip out of balance just a bit. We can not stop this virus. We can slow it's spread so that there are not too many people with it at once.

That is the only goal.

If we had a Pandemic team, sensible regulations to deal with this would have already been put in place. Instead we have a bunch of people who AREN'T DOCTORS trying to monday morning quarterback things. Listen to the DOCTOR'S in the countries this has already hit. IDGAF what Johns Hopkins says. There are too many videos of too many people dying in hospitals. The point of all this is that we ALREADY have too many people dying from disease at any given time. If this spreads, millions could die because we simply don't have the equipment or capability to produce what is needed to treat the ones who will be hardest hit.

so you just want to rant, I am here to listen

absolutely zero of what you said applies to me and what I said (btw Johns Hopkins is a world-class hospital full of world-class doctors)

 

[fan of fanboys]

Is it too much to ask that people be sympathetic and compassionate of other human beings that are infected with this virus?

No reason to disagree and argue on specifics.

The doctors, medical staff and first responders need our support and encouragement.

I rather not see families losing loved ones. Family pets getting infected etc.

Everyone needs to do their best in these troubling times.


As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived.




Sent from my SM-J337V using Tapatalk

"As Our ancestors lived through much worse and survived"

well, I am pretty sure they are all dead. many from bacteria and viruses

 

[Jidaran]

Just to be clear:

“Claims that streamlining NSC structures impaired our nation's bio defense are false. Global health remained a top NSC priority, and its expert team was critical to effectively handling the 2018-19 Africa Ebola crisis.

Bolton defends decision to shutter NSC pandemic office | TheHill

I know I said I wouldn't get political, but...

You're quoting from a Bolton tweet. How is that proof of anything? Of course he'll claim that disbanding the pandemic team didn't effect readiness. Show me a pandemic expert who says Bolton's move didn't effect anything, that would have some meaning. But Bolton's opinion on his own move means exactly nada.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

this shows a mortality rate of 0.04%

consider the confirmed infected rate is assumed to be drastically lower than the actual infected rate and that mortality rate plummets

those numbers are accurate as of 9:17pm eastern 3/19/2020

John Hopkins is legit. But where are you getting that mortality rate from? I just divided the deaths (~10,000) by the confirmed cases (~400,000) and got a mortality rate of 4%.

You're right that the mortality rate based on confirmed cases will drop as tests become more available. But it's not going to get down to 0.04%. South Korea, which has done more widespread testing than any other country, currently has about a 1% mortality rate... which is why the experts are suggesting we should expect something similar here.

Luckily, viruses that deadly don't spread very far... in general. See: Ebola.
-Charlie

That's a really important point.

This isn't the worse case scenario (because there's always something worse). But it's pretty bad - high transmissible, lethal enough to cause chaos, not so lethal that it flames out.

Keep in mind, things start to change when you scale up. Many cases require hospitalization (looking like 20%, or 200 out of every 1000). Considering we have 2.8 beds per 1000 people in the US, Covid19 sweeping the country unchecked would overwhelm hospitals. If that 20% can't get to the hospital your 1% mortality rate starts to climb pretty quick. Not to mention all the other people already in the hospital, are we kicking them out? We're currently at 95% capacity.

It took a minute, but at this point most everyone agrees this is a big deal, Trump, the Democrats, news media, the entire medical establishment.... We've seen what's happened in other countries that didn't react quick enough (see: Italy, Iran) so it's not like we don't know what to expect.

 

[fan of fanboys]

I know I said I wouldn't get political, but...

You're quoting from a Bolton tweet. How is that proof of anything? Of course he'll claim that disbanding the pandemic team didn't effect readiness. Show me a pandemic expert who says Bolton's move didn't effect anything, that would have some meaning. But Bolton's opinion on his own move means exactly nada.


John Hopkins is legit. But where are you getting that mortality rate from? I just divided the deaths (~10,000) by the confirmed cases (~400,000) and got a mortality rate of 4%.

You're right that the mortality rate based on confirmed cases will drop as tests become more available. But it's not going to get down to 0.04%. South Korea, which has done more widespread testing than any other country, currently has about a 1% mortality rate... which is why the experts are suggesting we should expect something similar here.



That's a really important point.

This isn't the worse case scenario (because there's always something worse). But it's pretty bad - high transmissible, lethal enough to cause chaos, not so lethal that it flames out.

Keep in mind, things start to change when you scale up. Many cases require hospitalization (looking like 20%, or 200 out of every 1000). Considering we have 2.8 beds per 1000 people in the US, Covid19 sweeping the country unchecked would overwhelm hospitals. If that 20% can't get to the hospital your 1% mortality rate starts to climb pretty quick. Not to mention all the other people already in the hospital, are we kicking them out? We're currently at 95% capacity.

It took a minute, but at this point most everyone agrees this is a big deal, Trump, the Democrats, news media, the entire medical establishment.... We've seen what's happened in other countries that didn't react quick enough (see: Italy, Iran) so it's not like we don't know what to expect.

typo, thanks for catching. I meant to type .04, which would be 4%, but added the percent because thinking in my head vs typing got confused

I did not mean for that to be confusing/misleading, which it def. was.

 

[shadow247]

Just to be clear:

“Claims that streamlining NSC structures impaired our nation's bio defense are false. Global health remained a top NSC priority, and its expert team was critical to effectively handling the 2018-19 Africa Ebola crisis.

Bolton defends decision to shutter NSC pandemic office | TheHill

Of course they are going to defend their decision to disband the pandemic team. My problem is they are NOW finally doing something when three weeks ago many officials were privately telling their donors things were going to get bad, while telling all of us that it will be fine.