Hope for the best prepare for the worst.How are you prepping for the covid-19 virus.
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John's Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering has a near real-time interactive site that you can explore until your heart's content. The data they have comes from WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, etc... in other words, the CDCs of the world. Read about their efforts from their blog:
ncov – CSSE
They have published the site here:
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Hint, look at the yellow dotted line in the lower right hand corner.
Also note that Italy is less than 200 deaths shy of China's yet their population is but a fraction of China's - these two countries have taken two distinct approaches to controlling the spread of this virus.
and they make the complete dataset available on GitHub for you data wranglers:
GitHub - CSSEGISandData/COVID-19: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
ncov – CSSE
They have published the site here:
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Hint, look at the yellow dotted line in the lower right hand corner.
Also note that Italy is less than 200 deaths shy of China's yet their population is but a fraction of China's - these two countries have taken two distinct approaches to controlling the spread of this virus.
and they make the complete dataset available on GitHub for you data wranglers:
GitHub - CSSEGISandData/COVID-19: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
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RichinRidgewood
New member
Two days ago, Germany had 6000 infections. Today it is over 12000 as you can see here.
We have no clue what numbers we have here in the US since we are so far behind on testing.
There are 82,000,000 people in Germany
12,000 is 1.4%
85% will only see mild symptoms (WHO)
"Between two and 10 million German citizens are infected with the flu each year. -2018 "
Flu season wreaks havoc on German workforce | News | DW | 22.02.2018
The sky is not falling
RichinRidgewood
New member
Thanks for this. The John Hopkins chart was posted on page 3
Average age in Italy is 46
Average age in China is 37
Italy has had a 68k deaths 2013-2016 from the flu. There have an aging population susceptible to the flu that has been going on for years.
Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect
ElectroBoy
Banned
So you’re saying don’t worry about it?
Stay tuned. This is only the beginning.
cb1111
Member
Aside from the fact that this is deadlier than the flu and this is only the beginning, I suggest that we have a recap of this situation when this is over - perhaps by the end of the year - assuming that you are still alive because you are (by your own words) far older than I am so clearly in the high risk group.
RichinRidgewood
New member
My wife and I are going to be fine. Thanks for your concern.
VB.TRD.Pro
New member
We are only in the 2nd inning of the C19 ballgame here in the US. To compare stats of an entire flu season -- which usually is handicapped by an available vaccine -- to something that hasn't run its course unimpeded (without a vaccine) is both irresponsible and inaccurate.
So right you are, I just scrutinized page 3 to find it - I found it under "FYI There are 7.7 Billion people in the world", and it really didn't seem to belong there, but that's where I found it.
Thanks for pointing that out.
thennen
New member
Agreed.
And this is the first time in my memory that we’ve been able to track an easily-transmitted highly-contagious disease from inception. Influenza is so widespread and has so many variants that tracking it across a billion infections would prove useless. But C19 appears to be very defined and trackable. This may actually be contributing to the hysteria - knowing about each new infection.
cb1111
Member
Speaking of tracking, the best system of tracking must be Singapore. Not only are they tracking cases and establishing linkages, but they actually list each case with status and location (I linked to an earlier page as the current page was undergoing maintenance - You can see the current page under paragraph 6 "Annex"). They clearly don't have HIPAA there although there is discussion about lifting HIPAA regs here - especially for telemedecine.
RichinRidgewood
New member
If you want to make yourself sick worrying about this I will step aside and let you. I, however, will go about my regular day comfortable with the math and science.
VB.TRD.Pro
New member
Not worried as we've been ready for weeks by paying attention to data provided by medical professionals who are on the front lines. The Mrs. works for the non-profit healthcare co. that is currently testing the vaccine in WA so we're pretty in tune with the scientific facts. It's pretty frustrating that information is not getting out fast enough and even more so when others are discounting or disregarding that the worst is yet to come. Either way, stay safe and we will make it through by being smart about it.
Jernik
New member
Interesting.
Not sure this has been brought up, but I'd like to ask a question, since it seems you've worked close to people who might make these decisions...
In regards to places on lockdown due to concern the virus could spread, it seems irrational and impossible to stay locked down forever. So at what point will they decide to lift these restrictions? Being viral, my understanding is it's not likely this will just die off and disappear, so there will always be a chance of it spreading once people start interacting again. Based on your experience, what kind of criteria do you think will need to be met before restrictions are lifted? For example, what would need to happen for restaurants to reopen their dining rooms to the public?
cb1111
Member
That's an interesting question and one that is impossible to answer. The reasons for a draconian social distancing is to slow the spread (that flattening of the curve) to allow the medical system to keep from being overwhelmed and for a vaccine to be developed.
Most of us (me included) initially looked at this and said "we've got a plan, we've got this", but some of us quickly realized that assumption was incorrect and we had to take swift and unprecedented actions. We looked at the situation much like the findings in this report that was published a few days ago and prompted the UK government to take action.
There are also problems with saying "why don't we have sufficient respirators?" because that addresses today's requirements. We cannot afford to address each and every possible scenario and stock huge supplies of ventilators, food, toilet paper, blood and so forth. We must plan for the known unknowns and cannot plan for the unknown unknowns - but - in future disasters we do need to be more resilient and learn (and act) far faster.
According to information posted on page 3 about numbers of deaths per year by a couple of causes and what we see to-date with COVID-19 let's do a little math.
7,700,000,000 (7.7 billion people on earth)
1,000,000,000 - estimated # of people that get influenza each year
291,000 - lower estimate of # of people that die from influenza / year
646,000 - upper estimate of # of people that die from influenza / year
= 0.03% - 0.06% of those getting the flue die from it
2,000,000 - estimated cases of norovirus / year
50,000 - estimated deaths / year by norovirus
Bad Water:
4,000 - deaths per day
or 1,460,000 - deaths per year
Air Pollution in China
4,000 - deaths per day
or 1,460,000 - deaths per year
What we can see from the John's Hopkins site as of 3/19/2020 @ 06:33am
222,642 - confirmed infections
84,506 - people recovered (38%)
9,115 - deaths (4%)
129,021 - still infected: outcome death or recovery (58%)
If we look at 9115 deaths per (84506+9115, or 93621 cases with known outcomes) we see a death rate of 9.74%
If we look at 9115 deaths per total confirmed infections (222642) we see a death rate of 4.09% but this assumes that all 129,021 still infected recover.
Lets take that 4.09%-9.74% range of deaths and extrapolate that to the estimated number of people that get influenza per year since they are both caused by similar viruses.
1,000,000,000 * 4.09% = 40,900,000
1,000,000,000 * 9.74% = 97,400,000
Is 40-97 million potential deaths around the world worth not taking any actions to slow it down or stop its spread?
Only you can answer that.
7,700,000,000 (7.7 billion people on earth)
1,000,000,000 - estimated # of people that get influenza each year
291,000 - lower estimate of # of people that die from influenza / year
646,000 - upper estimate of # of people that die from influenza / year
= 0.03% - 0.06% of those getting the flue die from it
2,000,000 - estimated cases of norovirus / year
50,000 - estimated deaths / year by norovirus
Bad Water:
4,000 - deaths per day
or 1,460,000 - deaths per year
Air Pollution in China
4,000 - deaths per day
or 1,460,000 - deaths per year
What we can see from the John's Hopkins site as of 3/19/2020 @ 06:33am
222,642 - confirmed infections
84,506 - people recovered (38%)
9,115 - deaths (4%)
129,021 - still infected: outcome death or recovery (58%)
If we look at 9115 deaths per (84506+9115, or 93621 cases with known outcomes) we see a death rate of 9.74%
If we look at 9115 deaths per total confirmed infections (222642) we see a death rate of 4.09% but this assumes that all 129,021 still infected recover.
Lets take that 4.09%-9.74% range of deaths and extrapolate that to the estimated number of people that get influenza per year since they are both caused by similar viruses.
1,000,000,000 * 4.09% = 40,900,000
1,000,000,000 * 9.74% = 97,400,000
Is 40-97 million potential deaths around the world worth not taking any actions to slow it down or stop its spread?
Only you can answer that.
Rapid_Amble
New member
The death rate you're using is grossly inflated.
In the US, as of this morning 159 fatalities/9521 confirmed cases = 1.7%.
In reality, the death rate is lower because more people are walking around with this novel coronavirus than known or estimated, due to testing not being widespread and lack of historical data for smart people to extrapolate estimates.
Jetboy
New member
The fatality rate will not scale up linearly with an exponential growth rate. That's why it's not accurate even at just a mathematical analysis level to compare the 1.7% mortality rate of a virus like this with something like car crashes. Or even the flu. It's comparing two fundamentally non-comparable values.
Rapid_Amble
New member
It's perfectly valid to compare this novel coronavirus with the flu.
Per the video I posted earlier, non-novel coronavirus makes up 5-14% of all flu viruses in any given year.
This one's different because it's new, so the questions are what's the excess infection, illness, and mortality rates over the norm, where's a vaccine, and when will people's immune systems adjust.
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