6th gen coming 2022

[phillyd2]

I have read rumors that it will be "joint" vehicle with BWM. Not kidding. But reverse of the Supra. BMW will sell a re-branded Land Cruiser because BMW has no meaninful presence in the off road capable market. And they want a vehicle for eastern Europe and the middle east. So they'd like a re-branded Land Cruiser. I could actually see this happening.

That doesn’t make much sense to me because the LC is so iconic and remains the gold standard around the world. especially in the ME, AU, Asia & Africa. That would be like BMW doing a 4 door sports sedan for Toyota.

I’m lucky in that the price of the LC is not an issue so I recently test drove one since the rumor I read was that they may get rid of it’s V8. Not much not to like but it was just too big for my needs. Other than a different body, engine, tech, etc. there is just no way that the new 300 will have a much shorter wheel base, solid fronts or much of what is being said here.

There will be a serious truck based off road capable next generation 200 (LC) and 150 (Prada, 4R, GX, etc.). And the 300 will also be designed as a 250K mile vehicle – it just has to be. The only real question is the same old question of what we will see here in North America. 10 years ago I may have believed that they would just stop offering the 150 platform here in favor of the Highlander type SUV. But the explosion of sales to Beta Pro & Jeep owners tells me that there is just no way they will abandon that market.

 

[Jetboy]

This is not an engine swap. It’s a redesign. The new engine trans and related body structure etc. would be an easy 200 lbs reduction with a marginally competent Design Manager.

The 8AR is among the newest engines in the Toyota stable and it's less than 30lbs lighter than the v6. The Mercedes 2.0 4cyl turbo is 354lb. The GM 2.7 turbo weighs 380lbs. As alternate choices the remaining driveline would be approximately equivalent. A turbo 4cyl is not meaningfully different in weight from a v6 in any current vehicle configuration I'm aware of. Maybe you could point to a turbo 4cyl in a production suv or truck that's less than 300lb? Any weight savings from the structural re-design would be the same whether a v6 or turbo 4cyl is chosen.

 

[Jetboy]

That doesn’t make much sense to me because the LC is so iconic and remains the gold standard around the world. especially in the ME, AU, Asia & Africa. That would be like BMW doing a 4 door sports sedan for Toyota.

I’m lucky in that the price of the LC is not an issue so I recently test drove one since the rumor I read was that they may get rid of it’s V8. Not much not to like but it was just too big for my needs. Other than a different body, engine, tech, etc. there is just no way that the new 300 will have a much shorter wheel base, solid fronts or much of what is being said here.

There will be a serious truck based off road capable next generation 200 (LC) and 150 (Prada, 4R, GX, etc.). And the 300 will also be designed as a 250K mile vehicle – it just has to be. The only real question is the same old question of what we will see here in North America. 10 years ago I may have believed that they would just stop offering the 150 platform here in favor of the Highlander type SUV. But the explosion of sales to Beta Pro & Jeep owners tells me that there is just no way they will abandon that market.

If you told me Toyota would sell a BMW re-skinned as a Supra - I'd have said that didn't make sense either. It would also surprise me, but after the Supra it's less of "they'd never" and more of "they probably shouldn't".

I've read a few interviews from Toyota execs who said a few things indicating that they did intend to discontinue the 4Runner and GX after the 5th gen, but sales are too good to drop them. The GX470 was intended originally as a 3-5 year run while Lexus developed a 3 row cross over slotted above the RX and it ended up selling so well that they kept it. Then the 4Runner was going to be phased out so they did a pretty minor update for the 5th gen with the idea of it running out the remaining life of the BOF architecture, but then sales took off again so it's back in the future plans. The LC200 is probably a net loser all around. If it wasn't for the historic significance I'm sure they'd have killed it off a long time ago.

One of the more recent discussions was about how the 4Runner and Highlander are very similar in size but have totally different markets. The Toyota exec said that they intend to bring a short wheel base off road oriented vehicle to north america. Specifically he said that the same comparable market exists with the Rav4 as the 4Runner is to the highlander. A body on frame, long travel suspension (his words), smaller size SUV. My guess is that the comment about the 5 seat Land Cruiser is meaning a return of something called an FJCruiser or similar not the real *Land Cruiser* which will be the LC300 and have 3 rows, etc. The re-birth of the FJ cruiser and elimination of the LC300 in north america would fit the statement of being significantly cheaper and a 5 seat model.

 

[phillyd2]

If you told me Toyota would sell a BMW re-skinned as a Supra - I'd have said that didn't make sense either. It would also surprise me, but after the Supra it's less of "they'd never" and more of "they probably shouldn't".

I've read a few interviews from Toyota execs who said a few things indicating that they did intend to discontinue the 4Runner and GX after the 5th gen, but sales are too good to drop them. The GX470 was intended originally as a 3-5 year run while Lexus developed a 3 row cross over slotted above the RX and it ended up selling so well that they kept it. Then the 4Runner was going to be phased out so they did a pretty minor update for the 5th gen with the idea of it running out the remaining life of the BOF architecture, but then sales took off again so it's back in the future plans. The LC200 is probably a net loser all around. If it wasn't for the historic significance I'm sure they'd have killed it off a long time ago.

One of the more recent discussions was about how the 4Runner and Highlander are very similar in size but have totally different markets. The Toyota exec said that they intend to bring a short wheel base off road oriented vehicle to north america. Specifically he said that the same comparable market exists with the Rav4 as the 4Runner is to the highlander. A body on frame, long travel suspension (his words), smaller size SUV. My guess is that the comment about the 5 seat Land Cruiser is meaning a return of something called an FJCruiser or similar not the real *Land Cruiser* which will be the LC300 and have 3 rows, etc. The re-birth of the FJ cruiser and elimination of the LC300 in north america would fit the statement of being significantly cheaper and a 5 seat model.

The BMW Z4 / Supra actually makes perfect sense to me that they shared development costs for such a none core product. That’s just the direction the automakers are going. I just got a new M340i and see that the same engine is going into the 2021 Supra which will make it interesting.

I find it impossible to believe that the LC200 is a financial loser for them so would be interested to hear what you based that on. I would think it was the exact opposite.

As I said, them considering to discontinue the 4Runner makes historical sense as does their decision to change their minds based on the sales explosion.

The FJ was a 4R made on the same production line but with an different outsourced body. I think they are still offering it for the Aussie market. Whatever shorter body replacement coming must be the next gen 150 (4R / FJ / GX / Prado) or it may be something completely different but it just can’t possibly be the new LC300.

 

[RichinRidgewood]

The 8AR is among the newest engines in the Toyota stable and it's less than 30lbs lighter than the v6. The Mercedes 2.0 4cyl turbo is 354lb. The GM 2.7 turbo weighs 380lbs. As alternate choices the remaining driveline would be approximately equivalent. A turbo 4cyl is not meaningfully different in weight from a v6 in any current vehicle configuration I'm aware of. Maybe you could point to a turbo 4cyl in a production suv or truck that's less than 300lb? Any weight savings from the structural re-design would be the same whether a v6 or turbo 4cyl is chosen.

Once again we are not taking about an engine swap. We are taking about a redesign going from a V6 to a 4T.

30 pounds is a significant number.

When Honda went to a 4T from a V6 they got 22 lbs out of the new trans and as much as 170lbs out total and its a FWD car. A 10 years old design RWD SUV like the 4R would have alot more low hanging fruit for weight reduction.

2018 Honda Accord Officially Revealed! | News | Car and Driver

 

[Jetboy]

The LC200 selling in very small volume is pretty hard to cover the development and production costs along with the lifecycle requirements to maintain all of the parts supply and such. Selling only around 3,000 per year is a pretty tough market. I don't have a good idea on what global total sales are. My guess would be 20k or so. There aren't a lot of models that survive with sales figures below 30k in the USA and even less with sub 5k sales. For example the FJ cruiser discontinued in the USA with around 14k annual USA sales. Honda discontinued the Ridgeline at around 30k, brought back, and again dropped quickly to 30k and I don't think that it'll see another generation. The Venza was discontinued selling 21k units in the USA.

The LC200 may have a higher profit margin than a Venza or FJ Cruiser - but I'm not sure how much. They sit a LONG time on dealer lots - meaning the dealer has to finance a $70k car for lots of days before selling. As a result they're often not willing to order any to have in the show room. Most Toyota dealers have zero on hand. The LC200 simply isn't a good product for north america. Dealers don't want to sell them. Few customers are buying them. I don't think another generation will exist unless it's significantly changed to sell at much higher volumes. 20 combined mpg is an absolute minimum requirement IMO to have any long term market success.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot to like about the LC200. It's partially that our North America version is exceedingly heavy, inefficient, expensive, and overall pretty underwhelming. I'm a big Toyota fan, but even I would have a pretty hard time buying one new or at anywhere near retail price. There's just so many better vehicles out there for daily driver duty. I might buy a LX570 in the fairly near future for a family adventure vehicle. With Tundra front suspension and probably 35s or 37's I think it would be great as a weekend family exploring toy. But only because you can buy them for 20k now so chopping one up isn't such a big expense. If an LC300 drops in a year or two with 25+ mpg, I'd bet the LX570s with higher miles will be $15k. At that point - I probably can't say no.

 

[Jetboy]

Once again we are not taking about an engine swap. We are taking about a redesign going from a V6 to a 4T.

30 pounds is a significant number.

When Honda went to a 4T from a V6 they got 22 lbs out of the new trans and as much as 170lbs out total and its a FWD car. A 10 years old design RWD SUV like the 4R would have alot more low hanging fruit for weight reduction.

2018 Honda Accord Officially Revealed! | News | Car and Driver

Who said anything about an engine swap? What exactly do you think will change structurally between a turbo 4 and v6 in a body on frame SUV that is designed to fit probably 4 engines for the global market? Specifics! What parts will change and how?

Do you not realize that the same new transmission Honda used would also work with the v6? It's weight savings in a transmission that's agnostic to the engine in front of it. I assume Toyota will likely have weight savings from a variety of changes. The difference between a v6 and T4 is not one of them. This is particularly true in the case of a longitudinally mounted engine - 4cyl is taller, longer, and narrower and weighs the same. V6 is wider and shorter. Fitting in the engine bay is a non-issue and will have no meaningful difference in the frame design or body design.

 

[phillyd2]

The LC200 selling in very small volume is pretty hard to cover the development and production costs along with the lifecycle requirements to maintain all of the parts supply and such. Selling only around 3,000 per year is a pretty tough market. I don't have a good idea on what global total sales are. My guess would be 20k or so. There aren't a lot of models that survive with sales figures below 30k in the USA and even less with sub 5k sales. For example the FJ cruiser discontinued in the USA with around 14k annual USA sales. Honda discontinued the Ridgeline at around 30k, brought back, and again dropped quickly to 30k and I don't think that it'll see another generation. The Venza was discontinued selling 21k units in the USA.

The LC200 may have a higher profit margin than a Venza or FJ Cruiser - but I'm not sure how much. They sit a LONG time on dealer lots - meaning the dealer has to finance a $70k car for lots of days before selling. As a result they're often not willing to order any to have in the show room. Most Toyota dealers have zero on hand. The LC200 simply isn't a good product for north america. Dealers don't want to sell them. Few customers are buying them. I don't think another generation will exist unless it's significantly changed to sell at much higher volumes. 20 combined mpg is an absolute minimum requirement IMO to have any long term market success.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot to like about the LC200. It's partially that our North America version is exceedingly heavy, inefficient, expensive, and overall pretty underwhelming. I'm a big Toyota fan, but even I would have a pretty hard time buying one new or at anywhere near retail price. There's just so many better vehicles out there for daily driver duty. I might buy a LX570 in the fairly near future for a family adventure vehicle. With Tundra front suspension and probably 35s or 37's I think it would be great as a weekend family exploring toy. But only because you can buy them for 20k now so chopping one up isn't such a big expense. If an LC300 drops in a year or two with 25+ mpg, I'd bet the LX570s with higher miles will be $15k. At that point - I probably can't say no.

The mistake you are making is considering the LC200 as a North American vehicle which it is absolutely not. They may stop selling here because of slow sales but the worldwide market is completely different and it still can't be possible they aren't making a good profit on them. Especially considering how long they have been making them without a major change.

But you got me interested so I did a quick search. They sell even more than I thought.....:

At present, the Land Cruiser is sold in approximately 170 countries and regions worldwide, with annual global sales standing at approximately 400,000 units.

Cumulative Global Sales of the Toyota Land Cruiser Series Surpass 10 Million Units | Toyota | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

 

[Jetboy]

The mistake you are making is considering the LC200 as a North American vehicle which it is absolutely not. They may stop selling here because of slow sales but the worldwide market is completely different and it still can't be possible they aren't making a good profit on them. Especially considering how long they have been making them without a major change.

But you got me interested so I did a quick search. They sell even more than I thought.....:

At present, the Land Cruiser is sold in approximately 170 countries and regions worldwide, with annual global sales standing at approximately 400,000 units.

Cumulative Global Sales of the Toyota Land Cruiser Series Surpass 10 Million Units | Toyota | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

That number includes all of the prado sales and lc70. The 200 is much much less. I don't know the exact number. In that 400,000 unit count for example they consider all GX sales as "land cruiser" so the same press release shows 36,000 sales in north america. And we know that less than 10% of that were LC200's. If that ratio holds globally, it's something like 40,000 total. But it's probably less than that. We don't have the LC7x and sales have fallen off a cliff since that was published in 2018. 2019 only sold about 250,000 globally of all models. So maybe 25,000 LC200's plus or minus a few. Australia sells the most at around 13,000 per year. If the ME also sells that many and Africa sells 5k, maybe you could add up 40k globally prior to the drop off in the last year. Even at 50k, it's not a very good selling model.

 

[bane]

One of the more recent discussions was about how the 4Runner and Highlander are very similar in size but have totally different markets. The Toyota exec said that they intend to bring a short wheel base off road oriented vehicle to north america. Specifically he said that the same comparable market exists with the Rav4 as the 4Runner is to the highlander. A body on frame, long travel suspension (his words), smaller size SUV. My guess is that the comment about the 5 seat Land Cruiser is meaning a return of something called an FJCruiser or similar not the real *Land Cruiser* which will be the LC300 and have 3 rows, etc. The re-birth of the FJ cruiser and elimination of the LC300 in north america would fit the statement of being significantly cheaper and a 5 seat model.

Toyota already makes the Fortuner (aka Hilux SW4) for markets outside the US which is BOF and a little smaller than a 4Runner.

 

[Jetboy]

Toyota already makes the Fortuner (aka Hilux SW4) for markets outside the US which is BOF and a little smaller than a 4Runner.

It very well could be the basis for a small BOF SUV. I've driven one in Indonesia. They're pretty decent. Very similar to a 3rd gen 4Runner. They're really the predecessor of the 3rd gen 4Runner when north america upsized to the larger platform. I don't think the styling would do well in the USA, but the concept would probably work with some sheet metal changes.

 

[phillyd2]

That number includes all of the prado sales and lc70. The 200 is much much less. I don't know the exact number. In that 400,000 unit count for example they consider all GX sales as "land cruiser" so the same press release shows 36,000 sales in north america. And we know that less than 10% of that were LC200's. If that ratio holds globally, it's something like 40,000 total. But it's probably less than that. We don't have the LC7x and sales have fallen off a cliff since that was published in 2018. 2019 only sold about 250,000 globally of all models. So maybe 25,000 LC200's plus or minus a few. Australia sells the most at around 13,000 per year. If the ME also sells that many and Africa sells 5k, maybe you could add up 40k globally prior to the drop off in the last year. Even at 50k, it's not a very good selling model.

Another quick search says more than 40k per year in AU alone.

The '''legendary''' Toyota Land Cruiser barely sells in the US

Btw, they are saying no more LC for the US

Anyways, at this point we should stick to what can be referenced instead of what we feel should be true.

Toyota has already publicly confirmed that the LC will continue and that “The all-new 300 Series Toyota LandCruiser will be just as capable as the 200 Series it replaces in 2021 – whether it’s powered by V6 petrol, diesel or even hybrid powertrains”.

 

[Jetboy]

Another quick search says more than 40k per year in AU alone.

The '''legendary''' Toyota Land Cruiser barely sells in the US

Btw, they are saying no more LC for the US

Anyways, at this point we should stick to what can be referenced instead of what we feel should be true.

Toyota has already publicly confirmed that the LC will continue and that “The all-new 300 Series Toyota LandCruiser will be just as capable as the 200 Series it replaces in 2021 – whether it’s powered by V6 petrol, diesel or even hybrid powertrains”.

Australia breaks it down by model. In 2018 the ~ 40,000 were made up of (Prado: 18,553, 200 Series: 13,677, 70 Series: 10,037). I wasn't really guessing about Australia.

Toyota LandCruiser hits 10 million global sales, passes 1 million in Australia | CarAdvice

I sent an email to Toyota's marketing group. They'll probably just tell us.

 

[RichinRidgewood]

Who said anything about an engine swap? What exactly do you think will change structurally between a turbo 4 and v6 in a body on frame SUV that is designed to fit probably 4 engines for the global market? Specifics! What parts will change and how?

Do you not realize that the same new transmission Honda used would also work with the v6? It's weight savings in a transmission that's agnostic to the engine in front of it. I assume Toyota will likely have weight savings from a variety of changes. The difference between a v6 and T4 is not one of them. This is particularly true in the case of a longitudinally mounted engine - 4cyl is taller, longer, and narrower and weighs the same. V6 is wider and shorter. Fitting in the engine bay is a non-issue and will have no meaningful difference in the frame design or body design.

You seem to have, all of it, all figured out so there's nothing else I have to add.

 

[phillyd2]

Australia breaks it down by model. In 2018 the ~ 40,000 were made up of (Prado: 18,553, 200 Series: 13,677, 70 Series: 10,037). I wasn't really guessing about Australia.

Toyota LandCruiser hits 10 million global sales, passes 1 million in Australia | CarAdvice

I sent an email to Toyota's marketing group. They'll probably just tell us.

Ask them if they make money on them

 

[sn_85]

I want the 4Runner to stay a primitive BOF vehicle with a basic engine and transmission that's easy to modify with parts that are readily available. I would like an SR model like the Taco that doesn't have any unnecessary features or add-ons.

If it's some crossover, I'm not getting one.

If they make the Land Cruiser "more affordable" the way the 80 series was and do away with the 4Runner, or ruin it--I'm still okay. I just want one off-road focused BOF SUV in the line up.

The Sequoia is too fat, too useless.

And I really don't want some gimmicky turbo or hybrid assist engine, or a CVT or a sequential.

There are lots of cars and crossovers that already do that. Toyota is like Jeep, they have a product people buy because it's outdated technology.

The FJ Cruiser wasn't a terrible idea. It just was ugly and it had crap seating instead of being a proper 4 door.

If they want the 4Runner to be a crossover luxo barge with a turbo and a fancy transmission I'll just get a Cayenne.

It will be a very interesting time for sure. I'm not interested turbo's, mild hybrids or CVTs either. I don't care if they offer them but I hope Toyota has multiple powertrain options in their new lineups without turbos or CVTs. If the new 4Runner or LC are a let down I think I'm going to get a used 200 series even if the market for a used one is inflated.

 

[fortinbras63]

I know I gain a couple extra horsepower when I deploy my fart shift tech to power me off the couch after too many nachos and beer.

They’re putting a methane vacuum in the bottom cushions in the front seats. It activates upon vibration and sucks methane into a hose leading directly to the fuel intake for the tiny motor to give it extra boost. But it only provides boost when a flatulent seat-occupant lets loose with a loud one (for the vibration activation) so you have to really push them out.

Bonus: It also eliminates the smell from the cabin.