I certainly do believe prices will get to that level, or very close to it. This stuff today is nuts, and in my opinion, stinks of Enron type business practices. The investment banks are raping the commodities market to pay for thier own stupidity in the housing markets. I find it sickening that some analyst at Morgan Stanley says "it'll be $150 by the 4th of July", then 3 hours later, it's up over $11 dollars. Geee.....I wonder how much money that guy just made for Morgan Stanley?? It's criminal to manipulate investments that effect the food on American's table. But what's worse, is Congress has allowed it to happen, and would continue if the public "voters / market" weren't struggling so badly with it. These politicians are stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one side, you have the financial donors that make politicians win campaigns running wild in the markets, and on the other, you have Joe American going further down the debt rabbit hole. But you watch, and mark my words, the public "voters / market" will win this battle, no doubt in my mind. Just yesterday a panel of financial experts told congress point blank that if they would just install some caps, stops, requirements, basic RULES within the commodities market, gas would be about $2 a gallon within 30 days. When something gets so far out of whack that it causes major industry to shut down...it's action time. Perfect example are the airlines. But further trickle will be the mom & pop restuarants. You'll start seeing your local bank parking lots filling up with repos. You'll see a stall. That's when the "fight or flight" instinct kicks in. And either one of those reactions will cause harm to the financial markets. One kills demand "flight", the other creates alternatives "fight"...aka...diversions out of the market.
The other issue at the moment is the fact that those "senior" players aren't in the markets. They're spooked by all the turmoil, and are sitting on the sidelines, riding out the storm. So, it's now amateur hour. And all they hear about is how much money is to be made in the oil/food/clothing sectors. Welcome back, day traders. Same folks who ran up the tech stocks in 2000, which led to it's collapse. Same players who bought "junk bonds", and caused the recession of 92'. History repeats itself, time and time again.
The trick though, is to steer these investment banks to other alternatives. One thing we don't want is big financial institutions taking another whopper hit and start folding, like Bear Sterns did. That can, and probably would, wipe out a lot of money from the markets, and cause some serious problems. Hopefully, someone will realize the play to sell their futures contracts to Iran, right before the collapse. That would wipe them out. SOMEBODY is going to get whacked by this, that's for sure.
So, before these guys can take their profits from the commodities markets, they need to have a road map to other successful sectors. Oddly enough....real estate is quite good, if you know a little bit. Commercial Real Estate fundamentals continue to be STRONG. Understanding the differences between real estate types is key. Residential: took it on the chin, thanks to subprime regulations and used car salesmen becoming mortgage brokers. Commercial real estate however, is a-ok. You won't find any successful used car salesmen in that sector. Certainly not enough to have any impact on the sector's performance.
But for now, it's a candy-bag-grab for the next several weeks. Nothing will happen this summer, but as we get closer to election time...signs will start to show that the Bush Boys are leaving the field.
Supply and Demand only accounts for about 15% of the cause for these prices. Demand is dropping now too, thanks to folks parking their SUV, trading for econoboxes, taking the metrorails, carpooling, staying closer to home for vacations, etc.... Yet, the prices keep going up? Saudi Arabia said they'll pump 200,000 more barrells a day. Yet prices spiked again. Make sense to you? Even if the dollar is weak, that isn't supply and demand. That's financial plays of interest rates.