Ebola

[MtnT4R]

I've tried to start several discussions about the Ebola epidemic with friends and coworkers but it seems hardly anyone is taking the level of interest I am, outside of your usual crackpot comments at the end of web articles. Has anyone read this?

The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings: Act Now or Regret It | WIRED

I understand that statistical projections are not necessarily something to live and die by, but I'm curious what you all think about how these events are unfolding.
The WHO anticipates somewhere around 20,000 cases before containment in the next six to nine months, which can honestly be nothing more than a joke, seeing as we are at 5,000 cases and we are only halfway through September with ZERO containment. What concerns me is the graphs showing classic exponential growth rates:

I currently see no evidence to believe that the recently announced efforts by the international community will be sufficient to contain or even slow the spread of the virus, which models show will infect an additional 77,181 to 277,124 people by the end of 2014.

Does anyone here have any experience or a more informed viewpoint about what's going on over there? Armed with the generally safe assumption that the WHO is seriously under reporting infection rates and the fact that they aren't even releasing information regularly enough for anyone to keep abreast of an exponentially increasing epidemic, I think the situation is already much worse than we can guess. Thoughts?

 

[BrianSD_42]

I will warn you that Wired.com has been questionable in the past.

I too am concerned about Ebola although I have little qualifications to discuss it in medical detail.

IMO instead of sending arms money to terrorist rebels we should be sending aid money to fight Ebola.

Also be aware that Obama is sending 3000 American military men and women into the infected zones to help with the crisis. We should offer our prayers for them and the families. They are active duty US military and their lives will be in significant danger.

A few more thoughts ... America should act now. Think of all the money we are wasting even now in Iraq and Afghanistan. Literally billions a month. How about a Billion for stopping Ebola?

 

[Ask10]

Just from a statistical point of view, I know that often times statistics are swayed one way or another to keep the public's "mind" at ease (in some cases). Also, it's "teh internetz" and all of those "news" sites are places I wouldn't trust to report that the sky was blue honestly. They make money if you're reading their stuff and talking about it, so whatever gets people reading is what goes.

I've somewhat followed the epidemic (here and there) and from what I've seen (I watched other countries' news as well), there is actually a fair amount of efforts to contain the areas as well as a "lot" of resources going into the efforts to control it as it is a national matter of safety.

Anyway, we can all speculate but in my opinion, public panic and outrage over the matter can make things far worse than an ignorant but "happy" public.

 

[BrianSD_42]

If have to disagree that there is a lot of effort.

The US licensed doctors who have fled stated reasons such as lack of latex gloves and protective eyewear as why they were forced to leave. These countries are so poor that even the few !medical personnel in territories with millions of citizens ran out of basic protective supplies.

We could send these materials but right now. IMO nowhere near enough it's being done.


This was interesting but even it fails to point out that bodily fluid diseases don't normally mutate into airborne viruses. Think Hepatitis, HIV, Herpes, HPV. Millions of transmissions and no airborne mutation.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinion/what-were-afraid-to-say-about-ebola.html?referrer&_r=0

 

[MyHigh]

BFD's may not have a history of mutating into airborne ones, I have no clue!

BUT

I think with this one there could be a chance, maybe not, but I'd rather plan for the worst and hope for the best on fighting this bug. What bothers me the most is our government has a way of down playing certain facts as to not panic the public and if by chance they do that with Ebola we don't stand a chance. That exponential growth graph will become reality and a scary one at that!

And I will pray for those 3,000 men and women that are going over to Africa. I'm sure it's always a scary scary thing going into war with a known enemy but it's got to be down right frightful for them right now being sent to a place to help fight against a engineered killer, and an effective one at that!

OP, thank you for bringing this topic to the table, I'm looking forward to reading the opinions of others and maybe learning something about this virus that I wouldn't normally have known.

 

[LittleCaesar]

War is profitable for those who sell equipment to fight it; there isn't much money to be made fighting a disease unfortunately. Always follow the money. But it would be proactive for all to quell the Eboal spread, or those who build and sell war equipment may not be around to enjoy their profit. I agree with Brian, not enough has been done so far to stop or quell the spread of the virus.

My uncle's friend designed this robot to kill pathogens in hospital rooms and such to cut down on nosocomial infections . Now it is being sent to try and destroy Ebola in makeshift hospitals and WHO wards:
South Carolina doctor wants to eliminate Ebola virus - CBS46 News

 

[MtnT4R]

I will warn you that Wired.com has been questionable in the past.

I was a little confused why Wired would even be publishing articles on Ebola in the first place, but the numbers they reference were released by researchers from Tokyo University and Arizona State and the reference material came from Eurosurveillance(Apparently the European Union's equivalent of our CDC) and Washington Post articles, so the information contained in it is somewhat more diverse. I wholeheartedly agree that we aren't seeing anywhere close to enough aid being supplied, and much of Africa's healthcare infrastructure is an absolute joke.

I don't agree with the deployment of military forces to the region- yes, they are trained in NBC equipment and procedures, but with a 21 day incubation period and rotation stateside we have absolutely increased mainland exposure to the virus, let alone putting 3,000 American lives in immediate danger to fulfill a role that isn't all that relevant to their occupational specialties. IF the virus propagates anywhere within the projected infection rates between now and 2015, not even 10,000 soldiers on the ground will make much difference. Obama stated that the goal is to train 500 indigenous personnel each week to fill care giving roles, which frankly is not nearly enough either.

I usually run a google search for ebola news and try to pick around through all sorts of publications. This one is from Off the Grid News(basically a survivalist website so make of it what you will. Still has good reference material). The US State Department has submitted a contract for 160,000 Hazmat suits, and this article quotes researchers who anticipate a 25-28% change of Ebola making it to the UK, and 18% chance of it spreading to the mainland US. So there is at least some concern(valid?) that containment on mainland Africa might soon be unrealistic(or is already compromised).:

http://www.offthegridnews.com/2014/...us-government-orders-160000-protective-suits/

 

[snivilous]

I don't have anything to say really, except that we just did population modeling in my Differential Equations class and calculating disease spreads and stuff, and it's pretty cool to see mathematically that graph is just like we calculate with an exponential increase until something intervenes or a limit is hit and the curve starts to decrease since there's not enough people left to infect at a fast rate. Totally irrelevant, but that's that may be the first time I've seen an actual real world application of derivatives

 

[Doc2012]

There's somethig you're forgetting about Ebola.

It kills with such a rapid rate, the patient is usually dead within 10 days of contracting the virus, that there is no way to really know how long it will last.

IMHO, the best thing to do is to STOP SENDING PEOPLE IN THERE. Quarentine the area of the outbreak, BIOHAZARD suits for EVERYONE, DECON showers, the whole nine yards. Leave the area of the out break alone, and let the virus run its course.

For those interested, "The Hot Zone" is a great book about Ebola. You have no idea how close we came to an outbreak here in the States.

There are 4 strains of the Ebola virus'. Ebola Reston, Ebola Marburg, Ebola Ziare, and Ebola Tai.

As far as Osama(not a typo, hes a ****ing terrorist) sending people in there....

WAY TO GO *******!!!!!!!!

 

[MtnT4R]

Snivilous, do you think your professor would be interested in modeling the outbreak for class? If you guys do anything like that I would really like to see it.

Doc2012, I have a nagging suspicion that the Western world is too concerned with the humanity of the situation to cordon off the affected areas and let it burn itself out. Effectively putting a stop to uncontrolled transmission is probably impossible at this point without the drastic measures you outlined. I'm going to grab my copy of the Hot Zone tonight and read it again actually.

There is an infected container ship that tried to make landfall in Italy(I think) but was turned away, and another ship crew hospitalized with Malaria in New Orleans(CDC says they have ruled out Ebola). Apparently some 12,000 people fly each week between the US, Canada, and the UK to West Africa, so until those routes are shut down completely, I think its extremely likely that we are going to see outbreaks in western countries, probably before the end of the year. I don't know, is that an unrealistic viewpoint?

 

[Slowgoat]

It's in New Orleans:

African ship carrying sick crewmen to dock in New Orleans | WGNO

Oh, wait, CDC says all clear:

No trace of Ebola on New Orleans-bound ship, CDC insists | New Orleans - WDSU Home

Pray.

 

[Doc2012]

{post}
Doc2012, I have a nagging suspicion that the Western world is too concerned with the humanity of the situation to cordon off the affected areas and let it burn itself out.

You're absolutely right.

We just need to mind our own damn business, stop getting involved in other peoples affairs, protect out borders, and worry about our own country for a while.

 

[MtnT4R]

The CDC finally updated their numbers and its not looking good:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/h...4-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=0

The transmission rate is estimated to be about 1.4 to 1.7, which means that the average Ebola patient is infecting 2 more people before they die. The CDC has also acknowledged that the actual number of cases may be 2.5 times more than what they are currently reporting, which they have figured into their worst case projections. The WHO has also indicated for the first time that Ebola could become a permanent presence the West African region.

The article states a few things that the CDC and WHO have known for some time but didn't want to release prematurely, which means its a sure bet that they have much worse news that they don't want to tell us. I suppose that should surprise exactly nobody.

 

[BrianSD_42]

Those of you saying "the west should quantine the area and let it burn out" but also "don't send any US personnel" - I hope you realize that is totally a conflict.

These areas don't have trained people, they need supplies and training. The 3000 US are being sent to train several hundred a week best case.

You can only do that if you send in people. You can only enforce a quarantine if you send in aid and people.


Saying the US shouldn't send people is like saying the US should do nothing.

The comments about the risk to the mainland from sending people are overstated IMO. We would quantine and check everyone coming back. It is much more likely that the virus will come over here if the US does nothing and 50 million people worldwide get the virus.

As for the troop deployments ... This representative of the risks that our troops are put in when they serve the country. I wish more people realized and understood that being US military means that you may be sent anywhere for any reason.

 

[Nervo19]

.."These areas don't have trained people, they need supplies and training. The 3000 US are being sent to train several hundred a week best case."

We could air drop supplies and make YouTube videos to train them.

The notion that thousands of U.S. troops belong there is insane.

If you read anything about infectious diseases the idea of "burning itself out" has merit. When you introduce new hosts who don't have any natural immunity to the local African bugs to this virus you potentially make it stronger.

 

[BrianSD_42]

We could air drop supplies and make YouTube videos to train them.
The notion that thousands of U.S. troops belong there is insane.

I kind of feel like some of you guys just don't get it.

These people live in the jungle, the virus is still in the jungle villages and hasn't made it to the major African cities of 1 million plus yet.

The people in these villages are uneducated and don't have basic running water in many cases and especially don't have YOUTUBE access.

The troops and aid workers sent in are going to setup stations and train the locals on how not to catch the virus, how to dispose of bodies and more. The virus is burning itself out but if the locals don't follow even basic procedures many more will get sick.

At this rate of new infections per virus contraction we are looking at 1.4 million by January (I read the same articles as you guys).

The time to act is now.


BTW - you should be scared. An Ebola strain has already mutated at least once into an airborn virus - right here in the United States. The event happened in 1990 and it was detected / mutated among monkey's in a pharma lab in Virgina into the 4th known strain. The Army and CDC were called in and "took care of it". During the event it was confirmed to be able to transmit through air ducts as a pure airborne virus, infecting monkeys that were in different rooms with no direct contact besides air ventilation. This 4th strain was also was transmitted to at least 4 humans, onsite in Virgina, but this virus mutation of Ebola was easily defeated in human host. The 4 people all tested positive (reaction) to Ebola Reston strain, confirming this was a mutated strain from the original Ebola. They did not test positive for (normal) Ebola.

The next mutation could easily keep its deadly attributes causing a world wide pandemic. The more cases, the more mutations.

Reston virus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

:wow2:

Reston virus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[MyHigh]

CDC report an estimated 1.5 million affected by January if nothing is done to eradicate the virus. Leaving much of Western Africa contaminated.

Even writing it just now, I still can't believe it to be true. I'm hoping I misread something and get numerous responses telling me of my mistake.

 

[MyHigh]

Crap! Just read Brian's most recent post and it appears that what I just mentioned was already mentioned by him. 1.4 million by January that's in

100 days people!!!:wow2:

 

[MtnT4R]

These people live in the jungle, the virus is still in the jungle villages and hasn't made it to the major African cities of 1 million plus yet.

The virus has been running rampant in Conakry, Guinea - Freetown, Sierra Leone - and Monrovia, Liberia(Especially the West Point slum district)- these three are the most populous cities in each country. Effective treatment/containment is a moot point when roughly 3 million people living in very close proximity are infecting each other at a rate of up to 1.8 with virtually no sanitation facilities, access to health care as we know it, or a reliable source of food. Passing out health care kits and soap is a ridiculously inadequate response.

 

[BrianSD_42]

Effective treatment/containment is a moot point when roughly 3 million people living in very close proximity are infecting each other at a rate of up to 1.8

If you are in favor of US doing more, far far more then great we agree.

But if the attitude is that these measures won't work, I'm going to criticize them, but I really support the US doing nothing ... well that I personally disagree with.

I'm not sure where you fall.