Jay4runner7
New member
I heard California’s trying to phase out all gas powered vehicles by 2035. Do you guys think eventually the whole country will do that? I’m scared that will happen. I do not want to drive a silent electric car!
Gas operated vehicles
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I think one of two things will happen. Either electric cars will continue to drop in price and increase in range to a point where ICE cars are phased out by manufacturers due to lack of interest as we have seen over the last couple of decades with manual transmissions, and no legislation will be necessary because ICE engines will be a boutique brand thing. Or that demand based manufacturer lead phase out won;t happen fast enough and there will be legislation banning new ICE cars.
The more interesting question is will we in the states start to see more legislation like Europe has favored with taxing cars based on CO2 output and engine displacement, and in some cases banning older cars from city centers.
Devbot
New member
Not for any measure of time because a number of things, a big one is interstate commerce - this alone has many even doubting the legitimacy of this law as it stands.
Not to be rude or anything but this doesn't seem like the place for politics, and seems better fit in the General Discussion or Off Topic boards.
Not to be rude or anything but this doesn't seem like the place for politics, and seems better fit in the General Discussion or Off Topic boards.
Jay4runner7
New member
This has nothing to do with politics, that’s the last thing I’m trying to talk about. I just always liked driving late 90’s early 2000 vehicles. I want to drive them as long as I live. I don’t understand why you think this has to do with politics? I just brought up California because there the first state to bring this up.
T4topher
Member
Even if that is the case it will be more of a no new gas vehicles. So all of the old stuff like our 3rd gens will be grandfathered in I’m pretty sure.. The thing I’m worried about is once that starts happening gas prices are going to skyrocket cause it will be more of a rarity.
gamefreakgc
Elite Member
I live in CA so I was watching that development. Here's what I think will happen.
- Automakers will try and make electric cars in large quantities and slowly phase out gas vehicles.
- The market will become saturated with electric vehicles to the point where everyone who wanted one, has one
- Automakers will no longer sell enough EV's to make a profit
- Automakers lobby California's legislature to delay or revise the goal to something like 50% of all auto sales or push back another 5-10 years
- We keep driving gas powered cars past 2035.
Who ever heard of an all-electric Jeep Wranger or 4Runner? Are there any charging stations on the Rubicon? What would you rather buy, an all-electric Tesla or a supercharged, gas guslin' Dodge Demon or Helliphant (rhetorical questions). This law will not last, just like the Paris Climate Accord didn't last. There's not much point in reducing CA or even US emissions to 0 when you've got gross polluters like Russia, India and China.
TheSaturnV
Member
Agreed.
You can hardly have this discussion without involving some level of politics. If electric cars improve enough, people will simply buy them of their own free will. Dunno why with some folks it has to be such a "my way or the highway" proposition.
Surely we can have a hybrid society of vehicles, gas and electric. The electric, no-cow meat people can toodle around saving the planet. The rest of the gas-powered heathens can cruise around to their heart's content, and we will STILL be putting out vastly lower C02 than Chyna, Russia, etc.
You can hardly have this discussion without involving some level of politics. If electric cars improve enough, people will simply buy them of their own free will. Dunno why with some folks it has to be such a "my way or the highway" proposition.
Surely we can have a hybrid society of vehicles, gas and electric. The electric, no-cow meat people can toodle around saving the planet. The rest of the gas-powered heathens can cruise around to their heart's content, and we will STILL be putting out vastly lower C02 than Chyna, Russia, etc.
I don't understand why you think everyone who wants an EV would have one and demand would disappear?
Are you suggesting that the majority of consumers care about ICE vs electric beyond being concerned about having a place to charge, and possibly range anxiety? If those are overcome which I expect is likely in the next 15 years then I don't see a huge percentage of the population caring all that much about the transition.
Or are you suggesting that once someone buys a car they don't ever have need to go buy another one?
As far as your question about an all electric Jeep and charging stations on the Rubicon trail, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but the times are changing.
pluton
Senior Member
The market will decide, mandates or not. IF the EV mfgs improve the energy storage capacity to ≈400 miles with the ability bring extra "fuel" if needed, and the cost of the vehicles comes down to "normal" levels, why not have an EV 4Runner or modern day equivalent. No engine noise, no poison gas coming out of it. I would accept a lighter, Subaru-sized body if the off-pavement ability was present. I'm not paying $50,000 or $75,000 for it, since I can have a really nice 1997 4Runner (or equivalent) for $12K or so.
ElectroBoy
Banned
Electric Jeep. Very cool.
Gradually, eventually, all new cars will be EVs.
Nothing to be afraid about.
I know lots of people who own electric cars and will not give them up. Some of them stopped driving their gas cars and got rid of them. They’re entirely electric now.
Dieselchessy
New member
The big issue with electric cars and California is the electricity.
There is no clean way to get electricity. You either dam a river, make a wind farm, make a solar array farm, or maybe wave energy?
We all know about the negatives of whale oil and fossil fuels, we’re pretty learned about the negatives of dams, we’re yet to learn the negatives of sapping off wind energy, and solar arrays effects are still unknown other than the semiconductor fabs and all the chemicals it takes to make them.
California is already in an electricity crisis. They can’t really support more demand.
But, if push came to shove converting my 4-runner to electric would be cool. I don’t really like how the motors kind of obsolete the need for a manual transmission though.
If a coal plant or natural gas or nuclear plant makes your electricity for your car, is your electric car still zero emissions?
There is no clean way to get electricity. You either dam a river, make a wind farm, make a solar array farm, or maybe wave energy?
We all know about the negatives of whale oil and fossil fuels, we’re pretty learned about the negatives of dams, we’re yet to learn the negatives of sapping off wind energy, and solar arrays effects are still unknown other than the semiconductor fabs and all the chemicals it takes to make them.
California is already in an electricity crisis. They can’t really support more demand.
But, if push came to shove converting my 4-runner to electric would be cool. I don’t really like how the motors kind of obsolete the need for a manual transmission though.
If a coal plant or natural gas or nuclear plant makes your electricity for your car, is your electric car still zero emissions?
brillo_76
Elite Member
Interesting discussion. I was thinking of building an electric 4 runner but it's not very economical to do. 
I do agree it's a cost issue. If energy costs become alot cheaper then gasoline and ranges increases significantly. ICE and gasoline engines will become whale oil.
These things take time though. Lots of $$ in the oil and natural gas industries that will lobby to leave it be.
Also in states like PA the tax the fuel to pay for road rebuilds. Would they tax the energy used in electric vehicles to pay for the roads rebuilds.
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I do agree it's a cost issue. If energy costs become alot cheaper then gasoline and ranges increases significantly. ICE and gasoline engines will become whale oil. These things take time though. Lots of $$ in the oil and natural gas industries that will lobby to leave it be.
Also in states like PA the tax the fuel to pay for road rebuilds. Would they tax the energy used in electric vehicles to pay for the roads rebuilds.
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St Runner
Member
I love my tacoma and 4runners too, but the day I can get a used reasonably priced electric truck I will be all over it. The potential is pretty amazing, complete independent suspension, and whatever drive wheel combination you want at the time because you can have a motor on each wheel with no drivetrain, just computers running the traction. Plus there is the ability to put a bunch of solar panels on your house and charge it yourself. As someone who has lived through the infrastructure destroyed more than once this is a big deal. As for the average consumer as soon as there is a charging infrastructure in place there is no reason to ever drive a gas vehicle again as the maintenance on an electric car is almost nothing. Also as pointed out there will always be exceptions grandfathered in for the diehards and long range applications.
thennen
New member
I think Devbot's point is that this isn't a 3rd Gen specific issue, and that the California 'mandate' is definitely political. Might fit the "Off Topic" category better. My two cents.
sleepydad
Senior Member
people said the same thing about the horse
As battery energy density continues to rise EV will take more market share.
if life has shown me anything: it's that people are lazy and something that costs less and is easier to use will win out. convenience wins for the mass of people.
charging stations have shown up at the Target store by my house already. Plug your tesla in while you grab your target run. it's real and it's happening. I personally know 2 people who own tesla's and they say they will never go back to ICE.
the other thing it has shown me is that markets are diverse, way more diverse than most people believe. back in the 1970's there was one kind of spaghetti sauce. only one god dam sauce, but today there are 30-40 different kinds. This market fragmentation will continue and making generalizations will never hold 100% of the time. This will be the case with transportation going forward. it might take another 30-40 years to sunset ICE but it will happen in most of the US light car/truck domestic market.
As battery energy density continues to rise EV will take more market share.
if life has shown me anything: it's that people are lazy and something that costs less and is easier to use will win out. convenience wins for the mass of people.
charging stations have shown up at the Target store by my house already. Plug your tesla in while you grab your target run. it's real and it's happening. I personally know 2 people who own tesla's and they say they will never go back to ICE.
the other thing it has shown me is that markets are diverse, way more diverse than most people believe. back in the 1970's there was one kind of spaghetti sauce. only one god dam sauce, but today there are 30-40 different kinds. This market fragmentation will continue and making generalizations will never hold 100% of the time. This will be the case with transportation going forward. it might take another 30-40 years to sunset ICE but it will happen in most of the US light car/truck domestic market.
Jay4runner7
New member
I can live with that, happening in 40 years. I know time changes everything, but don’t know about 15 years. Hell we were suppose to have flying cars by now like in the movies. Even then we should be able to choose what vehicle we want to drive. People still drive cars made in the 50’s so maybe it’ll be like that. Are 4Runners will be classics.
sleepydad
Senior Member
in the 50's they were thinking about putting people on the moon and they went for it. They were seeing incredible change. My grandfather rode his horse to school. Think of the change they saw in their lifetime. they were thinking "wow we can do anything"
you have to set a goal, a deadline, and you have to push for it. that is political part of it, people will form clubs and movements to resist anything now days. A lot of people don't think ahead and unless somebody is dragging them kicking and screaming they just want to fight anything. I think it's just fighting something/anything that people want.
The market will decide. The outcomes may be interesting.
I work for a company that did a green vehicle pilot about a decade ago. I enthusiastically jumped into the program and got a hybrid company vehicle. Early on, I decided I would have the highest MPG in the entire fleet, so I did it all - hypermiling, no AC in summer, no heat in winter, etc.
Guess what - I got beat every month. Every Month! By a POS 1997 Ford Taurus assigned to a guy who drove less than 100 miles most months. No matter what I did, a well broken in ICE beat my hybrid. We had 600+ vehicle fleet, so being number 2 was an accomplishment, but I couldn’t beat that old Ford over a two year period.
I also noted that a decade ago, I averaged 18% less efficiency in the months the weather got below 40 degrees F. Similar story in Canada, Lithium Ion batteries struggle in the temperature ranges that a majority of Americans live.
Now my company has a few dozen all electric one-ton trucks. They have to be garaged at least six months a year due to low temperatures. That was never necessary for ICE vehicles.
Gavin Newsom is clown. His move was trolling Trump and EPA, timed to distract from the missteps his administration made in Fire season preparedness. To Newsom’s credit, it worked...
I work for a company that did a green vehicle pilot about a decade ago. I enthusiastically jumped into the program and got a hybrid company vehicle. Early on, I decided I would have the highest MPG in the entire fleet, so I did it all - hypermiling, no AC in summer, no heat in winter, etc.
Guess what - I got beat every month. Every Month! By a POS 1997 Ford Taurus assigned to a guy who drove less than 100 miles most months. No matter what I did, a well broken in ICE beat my hybrid. We had 600+ vehicle fleet, so being number 2 was an accomplishment, but I couldn’t beat that old Ford over a two year period.
I also noted that a decade ago, I averaged 18% less efficiency in the months the weather got below 40 degrees F. Similar story in Canada, Lithium Ion batteries struggle in the temperature ranges that a majority of Americans live.
Now my company has a few dozen all electric one-ton trucks. They have to be garaged at least six months a year due to low temperatures. That was never necessary for ICE vehicles.
Gavin Newsom is clown. His move was trolling Trump and EPA, timed to distract from the missteps his administration made in Fire season preparedness. To Newsom’s credit, it worked...
