Is the auto market bubble finally about to burst?

[ErnieArt]

So I’m looking for a 21 pro 4Runner. Have been checking the market for a while. Prices have only been going up for months now. Last week though it was the first time the market actually went down. Only .04%. Though it’s not much but it didn’t go up which is what really matters. New numbers today. It is now down .33%. That’s great news. Hope this begins the trend and this auto market bubble bursts.

 

[Too Stroked]

As much as I hope the trend continues, I'd suggest that the scale used in the graph makes the change look much greater than it actually is. I mean really, one third of one percent? Not something anybody but a politician is going to get excited about.

 

[ErnieArt]

The numbers are small but nationwide it is substantial. The most important thing is that’s 2 weeks in a row of a drop. If trend starts. Never know where the drop might end.

 

[Sundy]

The numbers are small but nationwide it is substantial. The most important thing is that’s 2 weeks in a row of a drop. If trend starts. Never know where the drop might end.

If you start to see a 1 or 2% drop then there might be something. Go a week with lower sales due to inventory, people not wanting to buy etc.

0.33% is NOTHING aka $165 on $50K. If you start to show some actual drops then sure, but with stuff I'm seeing in Colorado it's not slowing down.

 

[lewdog998]

just read that Chevy is dropping wireless charging from new tahoe's because of chip shortages They have already removed cylinder deactivation and start/stop fuel saving.

So at least from GMs perspective they are still actively taking steps to help mitigate the issues caused by chip shortages. To me this means the light at the end of the tunnel is still pretty dim.

 

[ErnieArt]

If you start to see a 1 or 2% drop then there might be something. Go a week with lower sales due to inventory, people not wanting to buy etc.

0.33% is NOTHING aka $165 on $50K. If you start to show some actual drops then sure, but with stuff I'm seeing in Colorado it's not slowing down.

The price drop is in wholesale. This is what the dealers pay to get them in lots. This is the main indicator of the market. If dealers start to pay less the whole market starts to go down. So your .33% isn’t jus $165. That could mean thousands on OTD prices.

 

[Kandor]

I don't think there is one new 4Runner on a dealer lot in my medium sized city. Can't see the prices coming down much until they get some inventory. Hopefully, they will overproduce in an attempt to catch up and cause a bit of glut and there will be some good deals to be had but I don't see that any time soon.

 

[jpallist]

I agree with Kendor, been looking, but none available.
jp

 

[MAST4R]

Chips shortages won't be resolved that quickly plus places outside the US continue to feel Covid impacts.

And on top of that, it seems like half the people have decided they must buy a car now.

I don't think the supply side issues will get fully resolved by year end. I have no idea how different automakers will be impacted but I won't be shocked if the 4R feels it more than others due to place of production/transport.

Apparently I can sell mine for more than I paid and get a new one for like a couple of thousand. But that's on paper. Not willing to risk it plus taking off suspension and skids and sliders and putting back all the stock stuff is quite a bit of work. And I don't think I want push start and TSS though actual headlights would be nice.

 

[85GT-79FJ40]

I've been looking at Tacoma's again. And it's insane. Yes I can get WAY more for mine now than I could six months ago. Actually only a few grand less than I paid for it 60k miles ago. Which is amazing. But I'm not paying 2-3 grand more than new MSRP for a 3 year old truck with 40k miles. There aren't any new trucks so it seems all the dealers have added 4-7 grand to the price of used ones. Great for them but it's a good thing I happen to really like my 4Runner and don't HAVE to have a pickup. But I admit I really miss having a manual transmission. And a truck bed.

 

[Old Tanker]

The chart shows the changes in prices, not the prices, so if it "drops" to zero, prices didn't drop, they just held steady at the inflated price. There is a normal annual cycle in play, and this normally drops by 0.35%, but this time it held steady, only dropping an insignificant 0.04%. So while I hope inflation has abated, we have a weekly inflation rate that is 0.31% above norm, which is a 16% annual inflation rate.

 

[Deuxdiesel]

The bubble will burst when chip production catches up. There are thousands of F150's sitting in storage lots near me waiting for that one little part. Being the number one selling vehicle in America, it is a bellwether for the market. This is what outsourcing gets us.

 

[Frasher4Runner]

The bubble will burst when chip production catches up. There are thousands of F150's sitting in storage lots near me waiting for that one little part. Being the number one selling vehicle in America, it is a bellwether for the market. This is what outsourcing gets us.

Are you in KY?


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[Redsoxx1918]

The bubble will burst when chip production catches up. There are thousands of F150's sitting in storage lots near me waiting for that one little part. Being the number one selling vehicle in America, it is a bellwether for the market. This is what outsourcing gets us.

All these chips are coming from China. They're loving it as our automotive industry collapses.


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[Deuxdiesel]

Are you in KY?


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Outside of Detroit.

 

[Frasher4Runner]

Outside of Detroit.

Oh ok. We have a similar situation here. The Kentucky Speedway parking lots are full of Ford trucks waiting on chips.

Stockpile of Unfinished Ford Super Duty Pickups Missing Chips Is Now Visible from Space

 

[CutthroatSlam]

We Still Expect Elevated Inflation to Be Temporary | Morningstar

Largely ^^^ due to autos.

 

[Stabbi]

I drove my there last week, it appears there are a lot less trucks out there now as compared to 2 months or so ago.

 

[Ripper238]

The bubble will burst when chip production catches up. There are thousands of F150's sitting in storage lots near me waiting for that one little part. Being the number one selling vehicle in America, it is a bellwether for the market. This is what outsourcing gets us.

But i don't want a Ford. lol

 

[AlpinUltra]

The bubble will burst when chip production catches up. There are thousands of F150's sitting in storage lots near me waiting for that one little part. Being the number one selling vehicle in America, it is a bellwether for the market. This is what outsourcing gets us.

You might be one of the best positioned people in the country to know when this shortage is coming to an end. 100% agree that until that sitting inventory drops we are not out of it.