"Official" 5th Gen 4Runner Sales Thread
- Thread starter 1engineer
- Start date
Toffees
Member
Toffees
Member
[MENTION=66316]1engineer[/MENTION] [MENTION=51186]philsey[/MENTION]
Looks like sales for this product are pretty steady and straightforward. Ignoring (or better, adding FJ) sales and the reduction during that span, looks like 4R sales are constant, with a slightly increasing trend (currently).
Would be interested in a 3-way table showing 4R, FJ, and GX sales during the same period 10-15 year period. Obviously there are other competitors, but I wonder if these three are borrowing from each other out of a steady demand for the BOF SUV.*
*And of course, would be interesting to compare against the Wrangler and Grand Cherokee, etc., to see if there are other trends in the market for similar vehicles.
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1engineer
Moderator
[MENTION=66316]1engineer[/MENTION] [MENTION=51186]philsey[/MENTION]
Dude... I went to Good Car Bad Car twice this AM with no update. Are you just sitting there hitting refresh every five seconds? I would have never guessed 11K though.
No it's not interesting at all. FJ and GX never sold high volumes. They robbed from the 4th gen sales more than 5th gen. 15K was the highest FJ sales YE since 2010. Slightly increasing trend? That's like saying the temperature difference between January and July shows slightly warmer trend lol.
I have compared 4Runner to other SUV's multiple times, including the first post in this thread. BTW you know you can look this stuff up and contribute to this thread also right?
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Ryan1975
New member
I hit refresh on the Toyota Press Release page and it popped up. I'm getting it straight from the horse's mouth nowadays.
1engineer
Moderator
Well I appreciate the update! Now all those front end haters can see the 4Runner is even more popular than ever.
Ryan1975
New member
Second highest month for sales, just a few hundred off from Dec 2016, in a short month (28 days vice 30/31).
Averaged what, 389.7 per day?
Ryan1975
New member
Oh and [MENTION=66316]1engineer[/MENTION] ...don't for one second think that you got away with stealing likes from me. :mad2:
I see through your thinly veiled attempt. By forcing all of my updates into one thread, created by you, you have in effect stolen my like machine and directed at yourself.
lane:
I see through your thinly veiled attempt. By forcing all of my updates into one thread, created by you, you have in effect stolen my like machine and directed at yourself.
lane:
1engineer
Moderator
Yeah that will be about 49 4Runners per hour if only running one shift. Two shifts is 25 an hour or about one 4Runner built every two minutes! Pretty amazing.
1engineer
Moderator
Oh and [MENTION=66316]1engineer[/MENTION] ...don't for one second think that you got away with stealing likes from me. :mad2:
I see through your thinly veiled attempt. By forcing all of my updates into one thread, created by you, you have in effect stolen my like machine and directed at yourself.
Posts get liked, not threads lol. :nod:
Toffees
Member
Is not my wit and sarcasm enough contribution? What you're suggesting seems so time intensive. Seriously though, the price of gas may have more to do with 4R sales volume than anything else we've discussed here.
1engineer
Moderator
Reliability and Durability
Price of fuel
Lack of Competition
Simplicity (old school)
Design
Size
Toffees
Member
Here you go, have more info but this is all I can parse at once. Wrangler is clearly trending up over 15 years, but GC and 4R are "flat" (and the GX), and the FJ obviously declined:
Toffees
Member
I think those are big factors in the 4R's appeal, but for the market on the whole, I think you're overthinking it a bit.
At least, most car buyers don't seem to put that much thought into the process...
1engineer
Moderator
Start at '10. 4Runner trend was flat til 2014 then trend matches Jeeps. You cannot include '08 '09 '10 in vehicle or home sales. Every big ticket item cratered for everyone in that time frame. Also you have to factor in the Tsunami for the 4Runner a few years ago.
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Brandonium
Member
Facelift was 2014 also. Guessing that has some push on the numbers?
Toffees
Member
It matches the Grand Cherokee trend fairly well, but they may also be affected by the 4dr Wrangler (or both). There's just too many variables to look at a short stack of data and think it's worthy of extrapolation.
Toffees
Member
More nerdistry here. First, total US sales volume, plus "mid-size" and "large" SUV data for recent years (all I could find). You can see that the sales took a huge hit in 08, 09, and 10 before climbing up again. This trend line is similar to the 4R and GC from above.
Here is the same, removing data for the 5 years from 08 to 12. The trend line goes flat again.
And here is the 4R/FJ/GX/JK/GC chart with the same 5 years removed. The JK trend is still very much increasing, and the GC and GX lines smooth out to very flat demand, but the 4R is still showing trouble fitting to demand late in the 4th gen days. The reality is that although recent demand is increasing at a very good rate, we're still only just crossing the 100,000 unit threshold, which the 4R sustained 4 years consecutively at the end of the 4th gen. If I'm a betting man (or a Toyota executive), I'm hoping/planning for 3 years of 100,000 plus demand (ending in 2018) for the 5th gen before considering a redesign. I'd be surprised if we see demand peak at much more than 125,000 units in 2017 or 2018 (but I've certainly been wrong before).
Here is the same, removing data for the 5 years from 08 to 12. The trend line goes flat again.
And here is the 4R/FJ/GX/JK/GC chart with the same 5 years removed. The JK trend is still very much increasing, and the GC and GX lines smooth out to very flat demand, but the 4R is still showing trouble fitting to demand late in the 4th gen days. The reality is that although recent demand is increasing at a very good rate, we're still only just crossing the 100,000 unit threshold, which the 4R sustained 4 years consecutively at the end of the 4th gen. If I'm a betting man (or a Toyota executive), I'm hoping/planning for 3 years of 100,000 plus demand (ending in 2018) for the 5th gen before considering a redesign. I'd be surprised if we see demand peak at much more than 125,000 units in 2017 or 2018 (but I've certainly been wrong before).
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1engineer
Moderator
More nerdistry here. First, total US sales volume, plus "mid-size" and "large" SUV data for recent years (all I could find). You can see that the sales took a huge hit in 08, 09, and 10 before climbing up again. This trend line is similar to the 4R and GC from above.
Here is the same, removing data for the 5 years from 08 to 12. The trend line goes flat again.
And here is the 4R/FJ/GX/JK/GC chart with the same 5 years removed. The JK trend is still very much increasing, and the GC and GX lines smooth out to very flat demand, but the 4R is still showing trouble fitting to demand late in the 4th gen days. The reality is that although recent demand is increasing at a very good rate, we're still only just crossing the 100,000 unit threshold, which the 4R sustained 4 years consecutively at the end of the 4th gen. If I'm a betting man (or a Toyota executive), I'm hoping/planning for 3 years of 100,000 plus demand (ending in 2018) for the 5th gen before considering a redesign. I'd be surprised if we see demand peak at much more than 125,000 units in 2017 or 2018 (but I've certainly been wrong before).
Good analysis. I do have a problem with you bringing in data from pre 2008 though. It was a different era. Remember vehicle type, design and simply customer "wants" change every few years, hence the redesign cycle being only 4-8 years for the most part. Jeep is unique in the way they keep the same thing with extremely minor upgrades. They also have a huge loyal customer base. I would just chart it from 2010. See what you have.
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