"Official" 5th Gen 4Runner Sales Thread

[Toffees]

Good analysis. I do have a problem with you bringing in data from pre 2008 though. It was a different era. Remember vehicle type, design and simply customer "wants" change every few years, hence the redesign cycle being only 4-8 years for the most part. Jeep is unique in the way they keep the same thing with extremely minor upgrades. They also have a huge loyal customer base. I would just chart it from 2010. See what you have.

from 2010 will show a strong trend of increasing demand, similar to GC and JK, but I doubt we'll see more than 150,000 units sold of the 5th gen 4R. These demand curves will level off at some point, and I think (for the GC and 4R at least) you'll see that happening soon.

 

[Gecko]

Also, for what it's worth, GX 460 sales nearly doubled after the 2014 refresh and it's been pretty consistently near 2k sales a month ever since (when not capacity constrained).

Nobody expected the GX or 4Runner to do as well as they have since 2014.

 

[1engineer]

from 2010 will show a strong trend of increasing demand, similar to GC and JK, but I doubt we'll see more than 150,000 units sold of the 5th gen 4R. These demand curves will level off at some point, and I think (for the GC and 4R at least) you'll see that happening soon.

I agree, but volume is not indicative of success. Toyota sells around 10 million vehicles/yr. Fiat about half that on total and the Jeep brand much less. In addition, at what number does a vehicle like the 4Runner make money? 25K/yr, 50K/yr? Also the factor of incremental sales must be considered. Depends on how long they amortize their fixtures. It could be that they need 50K/yr for the first few years to break even and then they could only produce 25K/yr and still make a profit. Who knows. In addition, what about the marketing value of having a vehicle like the 4Runner in your portfolio? Rugged, off road, etc, the image of a 4Runner is worth a lot to Toyota in the NA market. I think I can safely say that the 4Runner selling 100K/yr means Toyota is not going to let it die on the vine so to speak. Look at my first post in this thread. Ranked 20th in class by volume in the US is pretty damn good. Look at who is below the 4Runner.

 

[Toffees]

I agree, but volume is not indicative of success. Toyota sells around 10 million vehicles/yr. Fiat about half that on total and the Jeep brand much less. In addition, at what number does a vehicle like the 4Runner make money? 25K/yr, 50K/yr? Also the factor of incremental sales must be considered. Depends on how long they amortize their fixtures. It could be that they need 50K/yr for the first few years to break even and then they could only produce 25K/yr and still make a profit. Who knows. In addition, what about the marketing value of having a vehicle like the 4Runner in your portfolio? Rugged, off road, etc, the image of a 4Runner is worth a lot to Toyota in the NA market. I think I can safely say that the 4Runner selling 100K/yr means Toyota is not going to let it die on the vine so to speak. Look at my first post in this thread. Ranked 20th in class by volume in the US is pretty damn good. Look at who is below the 4Runner.

Largely agree, but to your point that's why I asked previously about the Prado and GX sales worldwide (which I don't know how to find). They're all built in the same plant with relatively few changes among the models. (In that regard, the 4R is the black sheep.) But to your point, I'd guess the 4R is "all cream," given that it's production requires very little in addition engineering and facility management, unless Toyota were to break it away and sell it as an independent platform. What 4R features debuted in this model before being shown in other models (aside from TRD type features)? KDSS, XREAS, all these features debuted in other Toyota models.

 

[1engineer]

Largely agree, but to your point that's why I asked previously about the Prado and GX sales worldwide (which I don't know how to find). They're all built in the same plant with relatively few changes among the models. (In that regard, the 4R is the black sheep.) But to your point, I'd guess the 4R is "all cream," given that it's production requires very little in addition engineering and facility management, unless Toyota were to break it away and sell it as an independent platform. What 4R features debuted in this model before being shown in other models (aside from TRD type features)? KDSS, XREAS, all these features debuted in other Toyota models.

Read this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Land_Cruiser_Prado and you will see the Prado is still in it's 4th generation, which is the same as the 4Runner's 5th generation. The 150 platform. They were introduced at the same time, had a mid cycle refresh at the same time, etc. When the Prado changed to the 5th Gen we will see the 6th gen. Probably lol.

 

[e60ral]

looking at the data, i don't think using linear regression works, you should change the trend lines

 

[Ryan1975]

Good analysis. I do have a problem with you bringing in data from pre 2008 though. It was a different era. Remember vehicle type, design and simply customer "wants" change every few years, hence the redesign cycle being only 4-8 years for the most part. Jeep is unique in the way they keep the same thing with extremely minor upgrades. They also have a huge loyal customer base. I would just chart it from 2010. See what you have.

On thing I noticed was a few times of numbers repeating my spreadsheet. I believe it was because the manufactured amounts sold out in those months. I know at several points when I was looking to get back into a 4Runner, I couldn't find the exact combination I wanted - only SR5 and very few limiteds were around - So it's my guess as sales climbed executives had to manage their production outputs to try and match those two numbers. Perhaps we're getting too deep in this and should just let the smart executives tell us what we want and what they're going to give us.

 

[Ryan1975]

oh and I'd like to point out that in every year 2010 - 2016 there was a significant jump from February to March...anywhere from 600 to 1,000 units. One year saw a jump from 3,000 to 4,000. Now - I won't call for similar % jump this March, but it would surprise me looking at that specific trend if the 4Runner breaks 12,000 in Mar-17.

 

[1engineer]

oh and I'd like to point out that in every year 2010 - 2016 there was a significant jump from February to March...anywhere from 600 to 1,000 units. One year saw a jump from 3,000 to 4,000. Now - I won't call for similar % jump this March, but it would surprise me looking at that specific trend if the 4Runner breaks 12,000 in Mar-17.

Bet you a beer...

 

[Bilbo]

Here's a fun chart

My chart, based on goodcarbadcar sales figures. Of course, percent of vehicles does not equal percent of total profits.

 

[Ryan1975]

Bet you a beer...

I'm not sure what the bet is since I misspoke and meant "wouldn't" lol

 

[1engineer]

I'm not sure what the bet is since I misspoke and meant "wouldn't" lol

Either way. Shoot, I'll buy regardless.

 

[Jhalko]

My chart, based on goodcarbadcar sales figures. Of course, percent of vehicles does not equal percent of total profits.

I would guess they make a lot more on a 4Runner than a Carolla.

 

[Toffees]

Either way. Shoot, I'll buy regardless.

I'll volunteer to drink it

 

[Bilbo]

I would guess they make a lot more on a 4Runner than a Carolla.

[MENTION=91899]Jhalko[/MENTION] I honestly have no idea what Toyota's profits are.

One comparison I can make is that in 1997, a Corolla had an MSRP of $15K or less. In 2017 dollars, that is about $23K or less. A 2017 Corolla has an actual sticker price of approx. $19-24K (TrueCar).

My 1997 SR5 (with tow package and moonroof) had a sticker price above $32K. In 2017 dollars, that is almost $49K.

 

[Throwback]

Reliability and Durability
Price of fuel
Lack of Competition
Simplicity (old school)
Design
Size

These are essentially the exact reasons I bought mine. I didn't go into the purchase looking for some kind of "overlanding" vehicle or any of that.

My line of work takes me to lots of construction sites so I tend to always have a handful of specialty tools and PPE in the back and never carry anything requiring a pickup so a full locking cargo cabin is perfect. I can carry our dogs to the vet safely in any weather, and there's plenty of luggage room for traveling. The roll-down rear window is a big plus for me and my wife because it's just cool.

I'm a normal manly dude so I require myself to have 4x4, even if it's only used a couple of times a year, so there's that. Tahoes are too big and way too expensive for what they are, JGCs are just wretched in terms of quality, and Wranglers are just not comfortable to drive all the time.

I bought based on Toyota legendary reliability, Japanese quality, "old school" rugged design/engineering, travel comfort, decent efficiency (20mpg personally), and pretty good resale value.

I didn't go in specifically for a TE, but the dealer had a CPO on the lot with 25k miles the day I went to look and I told them I'd take it for $33k bottom line out the door with a certified write-in that the 100k/7yr CPO warranty covered the KDSS.

 

[SwayzeExpress]

So, in order to keep [MENTION=62425]Ryan1975[/MENTION] happy, we will start a "sales" thread that will be updated every month. In addition to numbers, we will also include any factual news updates with respect to the 5th Gen 4Runner. So let's get this started:

For 2016, the 5th Gen 4Runner sold around 112,000 units. That is over 2X what was sold in 2010. Now, for fun, let's compare the 4Runner sales to other brand sales for 2016. These are vehicles that I see, even though the capabilities are not the same, that might be cross shopped against a 4Runner by an average consumer. The first number is their total class sales rank.
(rounded off to the nearest thousand)

2016 Total Sales
5. Ford Explorer: 216,000
7. Jeep Grand Cherokee: 212,000
9. Jeep Wrangler: 192,000
10. Toyota Highlander: 191,000
11. Subaru Outback: 183,000
12. Subaru Forester: 179,000
16. Honda Pilot: 121,000
20. Toyota 4Runner: 112,000
21. Lexus RX: 109,000
23. Chevy Tahoe: 103,000
32. Nissan Pathfinder: 82,000
36. Dodge Durango: 68,000
39. Acura MDX: 55,000
40. Lexus NX: 55,000
47. BMW X5: 48,000
62. Lexus GX: 25,000
76. Porsche Cayenne: 15,000
77. Land Rover Discovery: 14,000
80. Toyota Sequoia: 13,000
94. Toyota Land Cruiser: 4,000

Anyone else find it odd the LC only sold 4k all year? I know it's out of most peoples budget but still seems low to me

 

[Toffees]

My chart, based on goodcarbadcar sales figures. Of course, percent of vehicles does not equal percent of total profits.

View attachment 241361

Ok brother, I get different numbers than you have. As a portion of total US sales volume, the 4R is less than 1%. As a portion of US mid-size SUV sales, for the years I have it moves between 3.33% and 6.21% (with a good year, could cross 7% of the midsize SUV market). I think these numbers are closer than the ones you're using.

Maybe you've had a Michael Bolton moment?

 

[Toffees]

Anyone else find it odd the LC only sold 4k all year? I know it's out of most peoples budget but still seems low to me

The LC is more of a "brand" car, like the Corvette, and they don't need sales volume for it to be successful in the big picture. I'm more surprised by the abysmal sales of the Sequoia, what a turd that vehicle is (in sales terms).

 

[Toffees]

Ok brother, I get different numbers than you have. As a portion of total US sales volume, the 4R is less than 1%. As a portion of US mid-size SUV sales, for the years I have it moves between 3.33% and 6.21% (with a good year, could cross 7% of the midsize SUV market). I think these numbers are closer than the ones you're using.

*erm, ok, so it was my mistake. I see that your figures are on total Toyota sales. Carry on, I'll get help reading next time.

Also, maybe this is just a function of using large numbers, which normalize data sets, but interesting how consistent these % numbers are, comparing 4R to US volume and 4R to Toyota volume.