'19 4runner

[Porkchopexpress]

Yes but you can get a 4runner with 2/3 of its life left for 1/3 the price of new. Hardly anybody drives their truck for more than 100k anyway.

Out of curiosity, I tested your theory. Assuming 21 years and 10k miles per year to be an average 4runner lifespan. 1/3 of that would be 7 years old with about 70k miles. On auto trader, the average price for a 2011 is in the lower mid 20’s with highs at about 30 and lows about 20.
In conclusion, I think half price for half life would be more realistic. I would also argue that you are getting the worse half of the life. However, the prevailing attitudes that used 4runners are a good value are what keeps the resale value so high. I wouldn’t want to say anything to take away from that!

 

[ToyDB]

Same experience I had. My new 2018 Limited was only ~2K more than a 2017/18 with under 25K miles. Loan interest at dealer or credit union was ~2% on new and~ 6%+ for used. In addition, my local dealer was one of the select few that provided the "free" Toyota Lifetime Warranty on new vehicles. (Okay, I realize that cost is factored in somewhere.) Bottom line - in my particular case a new 4R was the better value.

 

[Inv4drZm]

Out of curiosity, I tested your theory. Assuming 21 years and 10k miles per year to be an average 4runner lifespan. 1/3 of that would be 7 years old with about 70k miles. On auto trader, the average price for a 2011 is in the lower mid 20’s with highs at about 30 and lows about 20.
In conclusion, I think half price for half life would be more realistic. I would also argue that you are getting the worse half of the life. However, the prevailing attitudes that used 4runners are a good value are what keeps the resale value so high. I wouldn’t want to say anything to take away from that!

I don't think 210k is the average lifespan, easily closer to 300k if you don't wreck it and that is what I based my numbers off of.

 

[Porkchopexpress]

I don't think 210k is the average lifespan, easily closer to 300k if you don't wreck it and that is what I based my numbers off of.

There are 25,940 4runners on Autotrader right now, 376 with over 200k miles (1.4%), 11 over 300k miles (0.04%). I would say 210k as an average is reasonable.

 

[Inv4drZm]

There are 25,940 4runners on Autotrader right now, 376 with over 200k miles (1.4%), 11 over 300k miles (0.04%). I would say 210k as an average is reasonable.

That means nothing. There are new vehicles in that average. Sort with only 2003 and older vehicles and most will have 200k or so. The average mileage per year is about 10-12k right, so these trucks would need to be older than 2000 really for averages to be over 200k.

 

[kgbagent]

There are 25,940 4runners on Autotrader right now, 376 with over 200k miles (1.4%), 11 over 300k miles (0.04%). I would say 210k as an average is reasonable.

Your logic is flawed. The 4R has to die to determine its longevity (measured in miles).

The problem with the 4R's is that they're still on the road.

 

[Toffees]

I don't think 210k is the average lifespan, easily closer to 300k if you don't wreck it and that is what I based my numbers off of.

I'd guess most 4Runners have a buttspan, not a lifespan. How long can you keep your butt in one seat before you need a new vehicle.

 

[eyerolleddapiece]

That means nothing. There are new vehicles in that average. Sort with only 2003 and older vehicles and most will have 200k or so. The average mileage per year is about 10-12k right, so these trucks would need to be older than 2000 really for averages to be over 200k.

To go with that, I would assume as cars get older, they're less likely to be sold through something like autotrader. Probably most end up being local person to person sales.

 

[Porkchopexpress]

Using autotrader was a convenient and entertaining tool at my disposal. While the data doesn’t come from a perfect control group, the extremely low percentages are telling. However, to further support my opinion that 300K as an average life span is too high, here is an article that gives more data:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-ca...ars-most-likely-to-last-200000-miles-or-more/

The article claims it’s data is based on a study of 13.5 million cars but they do not elaborate on their methodology. Their results show 4.2% of 4runners breaking 200K and 0.3% breaking 300K. Those numbers are impressive and put the 4runner at the top of reliability ratings, but when you talk about averages, even 4.2% is well below that threshold.

 

[Skahn21]

Using autotrader was a convenient and entertaining tool at my disposal. While the data isn’t a perfect control group independent of variables, the extremely low percentages are telling. However, to further support my opinion that 300K as an average life span is too high, here is an article that gives more data:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-ca...ars-most-likely-to-last-200000-miles-or-more/

The article claims it’s data is based on a study of 13.5 million cars but they do not elaborate on their methodology. Their results show 4.2% of 4runners breaking 200K and 0.3% breaking 300K. Those numbers are impressive and put the 4runner at the top of reliability ratings, but when you talk about averages, even 4.2% is well below that threshold.

Wow!

Cool article. Both owners of my company have suburbans. They seem to last a lifetime.

All starting to make sense now...

 

[Porkchopexpress]

Wow!

Cool article. Both owners of my company have suburbans. They seem to last a lifetime.

All starting to make sense now...

Yea, body on frame trucks designed to be abused by contractors then driven by soccer moms. Articles like this were part of the reason I ordered a new 4Runner. I can’t wait for it to come in!

 

[Skahn21]

Yea, body on frame trucks designed to be abused by contractors then driven by soccer moms. Articles like this were part of the reason I ordered a new 4Runner. I can’t wait for it to come in!

I'm in the same boat. I'm going to buy early next year but I'm doing my research now. I love the reliability factor and have always wanted to offroad. I have read horror stories about jeeps and loved the Highlander that my mom has had for years. 12 years old and we've replaced batteries and changed tires.

 

[Ryan1975]

2016 4Runner purchased 12/19/15 - About to turn 80k miles this week or next FWIW

 

[DeepSea]

My friend at Toyota said 2019 will have an Anniversary Edition but he has no details as to what exactly that means yet. Also, 2020 is still undetermined as to if the 4R will remain in the Toyota lineup. They're trying to finesse it's existence with the CAFE Law. He also noted that the current demand for the 4R is spiking it's prices up so he's advising people to buy an 18' before they (possibly) announce its termination

 

[jrandom]

My friend at Toyota said 2019 will have an Anniversary Edition but he has no details as to what exactly that means yet.

What is up with companies doing 35 year anniversary anything? Marriages sure, inanimate objects, pffft.

Does that mean it is going to be a jade color or coral? Because if its jade green that would be something :

 

[epjfsa]

My friend at Toyota said 2019 will have an Anniversary Edition but he has no details as to what exactly that means yet. Also, 2020 is still undetermined as to if the 4R will remain in the Toyota lineup. They're trying to finesse it's existence with the CAFE Law. He also noted that the current demand for the 4R is spiking it's prices up so he's advising people to buy an 18' before they (possibly) announce its termination

Zero chance Toyota is dropping the 4Runner, and CAFE would be the absolute last reason they would do it. Toyota, of all automakers, is in a very healthy position to continue making BOF trucks. The scaremongering (from either you or your friend) from a lack of understanding the policy is unnecessary. There will be another 4runner.

 

[Porkchopexpress]

Zero chance Toyota is dropping the 4Runner, and CAFE would be the absolute last reason they would do it. Toyota, of all automakers, is in a very healthy position to continue making BOF trucks. The scaremongering (from either you or your friend) from a lack of understanding the policy is unnecessary. There will be another 4runner.

I have actually heard the same thing about the 4Runner and cafe law. BOF, 5 speed transmissions and naturally aspirated engines are disappearing for a reason. 4Runner sales have been going up for the last few years bucking the trend of normal outdated designs but I can see how Toyota might have been considering letting it die off before sales picked up. My guess is that there will be a new 4Runner but maybe not sharing a LC Prado platform.

 

[yoyomonkey]

Most likely with a 3.5 engine and 2mpg gain... cash back offers are rolling out so expecting a 2020 update and not made in japan

 

[4FL]

A Prius can handle FS roads. Just sayin’

:bat:

I use to think that, but after driving a whopping five miles on a FS road in a Saturn, two flats, and the front plastic bumper thingy falling off, (and wonder how the underside looked after dragging over so many things), I do not think that car would have lasted much longer, lol.

But a friend's old Subaru did fine.

 

[epjfsa]

I have actually heard the same thing about the 4Runner and cafe law. BOF, 5 speed transmissions and naturally aspirated engines are disappearing for a reason. 4Runner sales have been going up for the last few years bucking the trend of normal outdated designs but I can see how Toyota might have been considering letting it die off before sales picked up. My guess is that there will be a new 4Runner but maybe not sharing a LC Prado platform.

Right, so as you say, declining sales up until a few years ago may have pushed Toyota to consider dropping the 4Runner. That's nothing to do with fuel economy, other than the fact that sales of low MPG vehicles drop like crazy when people can't afford the gas to drive it (e.g. 2008).

These trucks are so old school that it would take hardly any new tech to bring it up a few MPG. Remember, no particular vehicle has to meet a specific target because it's about average of all vehicles they sell. Toyota could sell a 4runner getting 4 mpg without penalty if it fit in their chosen compliance strategy. They sell more than enough extremely efficient cars that their (corporate) average fuel economy will be plenty healthy with minor improvements to their BOF trucks. Toyota of all companies is probably in the best position to sell old-school BOF trucks because people are happy to buy their hybrid cars (To be honest, a simply mild hybrid 4runner, with the extra torque like the new RAM V6 will get, would be fantastic).

I really don't see any way to support the assumption that CAFE will kill the 4Runner, and that's partially because the standard was specifically designed to avoid killing certain products. Think of it this way - higher MPG means it's less likely that 4Runner sales drop the next time gas prices go up or we hit a recession (it was drastic in 2007-2015!) meaning Toyota is less likely to give up on it after the 6th generation.