Ok so lets do this totally mathematically then...
235/75r15 = 720rev/mile
235/75r15 = 23mile/gal
Therefore you have 16,560 rev/gal....
So if you back calculate....
31x10.5r15 = 671rev/mile
31x10.5r15 = 25mile/gal
But then factor in the 7.266% to slow and you get....
31x10.5r15 = 23mile/gal
So theoretically, going from a 235/75r15 to a 31x10.5r15 is pretty much neglegable..... I guess I might loose 1-2 MPG due to weight difference.
To be honest, I didn't quite follow your methodology. . . I guess my original point was, that some people might respond that their MPG's were decreased significantly, when in fact, they simply didn't account for the odometer change (due to the now larger tires).
Using BFG AT KO's for example, a 235/75R15 tire weighs in at 36 lbs., whereas a 31/10.5R15 weighs in at 42 lbs. Whether that is significant or not with respect to MPG's and performance, I don't know.
In my searching of old posts, I found that most report that 31's don't rub (not sure if spacer is required), but that the larger tire affects performance without a re-gear.
Taking all of the above factors into consideration, I opted to go from a 225/75R15 to a 235/75R15, which is only 2% larger. Therefore, my speedo/odometer is for the most part accurate, and performance power is virtually unchanged. As a compromise, I went to a very aggressive AT (Good Year Duratrac), which in my opinion, LOOKS much bigger.