A Hybrid 4Runner Would be a Clownish Attempt to Appeal to Greenies Who Can’t do Math

[RichinRidgewood]

5-12 year payback, more complexity.... sounds like a great idea! (sarcasm)

The Cost Of Driving A Hybrid: How Many Miles Until You Break Even?

 

[Oldmanb777]

My window on the world suggests...............Next year you will start seeing European style taxes being legislated on fossil fuels. Enhanced subsidies for electric type vehicles. More taxes on internal combustion of all types to subsidize the push for electric energy that can be more easily controlled.
The lack of moving parts alone makes electric motors viable on the cost over time. I would guess in 15 yrs it may be hard to find an internal combustion engine in cars. And the used one will be given away, no one will want them. The cost and lack of performance will doom them.
Autonomous driving will be the rage. Possibly you won't even want to own a car. For pennies you can go to your cell phone and order up an autonomous ride to where ever you want to go. It will pick you up curb side, and deposit you at the exact time you want to be there. All for less than the cost of putting air in your tires (and i own a compressor). No dealing with rude, inept, aggressive drivers.
I will still want to drive myself, and listen to those ponies under the hood, but I'm becoming a dinosaur myself. In 15 years i may welcome it.

 

[shadow247]

Canoo has an interesting idea for a subscription based model. You pay 1 price and includes everything but electricity. If it breaks, they just take it back and send you a new one. They just fix and send out to the next customer.

Jay Leno did a good segment on this car. Sure it a "ugly as sin" but it gets 7 people around the city in the space of a Prius.

 

[Gamma Ray]

My window on the world suggests...............Next year you will start seeing European style taxes being legislated on fossil fuels. Enhanced subsidies for electric type vehicles. More taxes on internal combustion of all types to subsidize the push for electric energy that can be more easily controlled.
The lack of moving parts alone makes electric motors viable on the cost over time. I would guess in 15 yrs it may be hard to find an internal combustion engine in cars. And the used one will be given away, no one will want them. The cost and lack of performance will doom them.
Autonomous driving will be the rage. Possibly you won't even want to own a car. For pennies you can go to your cell phone and order up an autonomous ride to where ever you want to go. It will pick you up curb side, and deposit you at the exact time you want to be there. All for less than the cost of putting air in your tires (and i own a compressor). No dealing with rude, inept, aggressive drivers.
I will still want to drive myself, and listen to those ponies under the hood, but I'm becoming a dinosaur myself. In 15 years i may welcome it.

I say never underestimate America's unwillingness to build out infrastructure. There are loads of people in apartment complexes with cars that currently aren't able to charge electric cars, and it's probably decades until they will be able to.

 

[RichinRidgewood]

My window on the world suggests...............Next year you will start seeing European style taxes being legislated on fossil fuels. Enhanced subsidies for electric type vehicles. More taxes on internal combustion of all types to subsidize the push for electric energy that can be more easily controlled.
The lack of moving parts alone makes electric motors viable on the cost over time. I would guess in 15 yrs it may be hard to find an internal combustion engine in cars. And the used one will be given away, no one will want them. The cost and lack of performance will doom them.
Autonomous driving will be the rage. Possibly you won't even want to own a car. For pennies you can go to your cell phone and order up an autonomous ride to where ever you want to go. It will pick you up curb side, and deposit you at the exact time you want to be there. All for less than the cost of putting air in your tires (and i own a compressor). No dealing with rude, inept, aggressive drivers.
I will still want to drive myself, and listen to those ponies under the hood, but I'm becoming a dinosaur myself. In 15 years i may welcome it.

One or two accidents, well publicized, with paralyzing injuries and deaths and autonomous vehicles wont be so attractive or maybe even legal or cost effective to build anymore. I will not travel in one. Many trains in Europe I have been on are automatic. I didn’t have a problem there but out on the road. Nope.

 

[BlackCloud]

As fewer people use gasoline the price of gas will drop, making it further attractive to those of us who want to drive ourselves.

 

[Keros]

As fewer people use gasoline the price of gas will drop, making it further attractive to those of us who want to drive ourselves.

Initially, maybe.

I'll preface this to say I believe the supercharged V8 is the pinnacle of motoring experience.

But the writing's on the wall:

There's a break point where it's not economically sustainable to endure the system cost of distribution of gasoline that will begin once the purchase price and range of electric cars are similar to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.

A particular neighbourhood will, at some point, not have enough ICE cars to sustain all the gas stations in the area, so some will close and make it harder for residents in that to validate the cost and hassle of their ICE car over an electric of similar price. This will put gas stations in the area into a death spiral as each quarter their customer base dwindles and their gas ages in the tanks.

As fuel orders begin to dry up in an area, bulk distributors may downsize and begin close facilities and laying off staff as orders dwindle and tanker trucks sit in parking lots rather than on the road delivering gas. Obviously with less stations ordering fuel, the cost of a single delivery is going to go up.

This going to happen all the way back to the refinery... and then the oil field. Sure, gas is cheap at the moment, but people are still buying it all the time, every day; and it's a market the manufacturers of fuel, parts, lubricants, etc, can all depend on.

As mentioned, the slippery slope is when we can go to the dealership and choose between a ICE or an electric, both will drive 300 miles on a single tank (or charge), and cost about the same. Then consumers really have a choice...

The dickheads flapping their traps that consumers DO have a choice are clearly on the positive side of a CEO's 200-400 times higher pay than an average worker. The "average worker" is struggling to keep their family under a roof, keep away hunger, and in reasonably good health. So we're just trying to get around and maybe have a bit of fun on the way.

When I read of a Tesla owner dying due to relying on their auto-drive feature, I scoff at some rich-ass idiot endangering others. Right now all-electric cars exist on a spectrum of tree-huggers driving a Nissan Leaf and wealthy people cruising around in their Teslas.

Hybrids sit in a middle ground to extend the life of current technologies.

 

[thennen]

I'm old school like many on here. I like internal combustion, and I respect the designs and the manufacturing processes that have evolved to the point that a well-maintained ICE can be expected to last a half million miles or longer. Much longer when built and cared for properly. Personally, I have no desire to have an electric vehicle. I'd happily drive fuelled vehicles forever.

That said, even our beloved 4Runners would benefit from 2-4 torquey electric motors, if only as offroad assist. Electric motors can be precisely controlled at each wheel, whereas a central engine can only be controlled centrally. Of course, there's mud, water, and other elements that the motors would need to be shielded from. Someone will probably figure that out.

 

[rdruss]

Toyota has much experience with high performance hybrids, check out their WEC cars that have won the last two 24 hrs of Lemans. Toyota could give us a beast if they choose to, but that's the question, "how will they choose?"

 

[rwh963]

how about a hybrid V8 diesel 6-speed manual 4runner!

 

[SpeedyKevin]

Toyota has much experience with high performance hybrids, check out their WEC cars that have won the last two 24 hrs of Lemans. Toyota could give us a beast if they choose to, but that's the question, "how will they choose?"

Being a wec fan i must say they won with no real competition... they came close to beating Porsche but the car broke down on the last lap.

 

[rdruss]

Being a wec fan i must say they won with no real competition... they came close to beating Porsche but the car broke down on the last lap.

Well then, maybe BMW will come up with a good engine for the 4Runner.

 

[Oldmanb777]

Interesting conversation. Would be fun to re-examine it 15 yrs from now and see where we are.
Yes i think Autonomous driving has a ways to go, but compared to the average inept driver, i think its probably much safer, and will certainly be much safer as time goes by. I think some of the safety will come from those inept drivers not driving.
Yes at the moment electric is still a toddler. But get better it is, and at an amazing rate. When paint is your solar grid, and recharges your car while it's in the sun. Then your car powers your furnace at night. The cost of refilling your ICE fuel tank at European gas prices of $10 a gallon won't be desirable. You'll go electric. I'll always resist change, and I like the sound of a nice ICE under the hood, but it won't be viable.
Even light airplanes are coming out with electric powerplants. Aviation is the dinosaur of evolution. Just too much at risk on new technology to use it until its well proven. But electric planes are here. Not common, but there are a few.

 

[Jernik]

I say never underestimate America's unwillingness to build out infrastructure. There are loads of people in apartment complexes with cars that currently aren't able to charge electric cars, and it's probably decades until they will be able to.

This. California can't even keep the lights on when it gets hot outside and everyone turns on the AC. How do we think the grid will respond when a few hundred million cars plug into it on top of current demand?

My biggest problem with electric is the time to refuel when in a road trip. And I do not like the idea of swapping batteries like I do LP tanks for my grill. Half of the LP exchanges I get are crap (because people, in general, are dumbasses and don't take care of stuff - not even their own stuff), and I certainly don't trust the general public to properly care for a critical component that could be put into my vehicle next.

And I'm not a mass transit type of person. I don't like being on someone else's schedule, I don't like waiting for a ride to show up, and I don't like being crammed into a box with strangers and getting exposed to whatever sickness they have.

I don't hate electric, but they've got to overcome that refueling time hurdle for me to seriously consider buying one. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt if they built an electric car that looked half way normal and nice. So far, most are ugly, unappealing douche-mobiles.

All that said... I did get to drive a family members new hybrid Rav4. It was different, but the systems worked together more seamlessly and smooth than I expected. There were some weird noises, and the regen felt weird at times, but I got used to it quick enough. It was OK, I didn't hate it... but not sure I'd like it in the 4R?

 

[Ogre75]

ROI on hybrids has never made sense.

 

[Gamma Ray]

This. California can't even keep the lights on when it gets hot outside and everyone turns on the AC. How do we think the grid will respond when a few hundred million cars plug into it on top of current demand?

I thought about that briefly, but I try not to think about California too much :bounce:

 

[rdruss]

ROI on hybrids has never made sense.

Yep, ROI only makes sense when considering something that's optional, but when it's all thats available our thinking will be different.

 

[mscot]

Or when you look at the ROI as something more than the impact on your personal bank account.

That said, our Rav4 hybrid has an ROI (for our bank account) of about 3 years and it's far more enjoyable to drive then the NA Rav4.

I may consider a hybrid 4R when it comes out but I doubt it. I'll either go Lexus or go with a different manufacturer when its time to replace the current 4R.

 

[Oldmanb777]

USA today (worthless rag) reported that SAE has gotten the auto manufactures to agree on wireless charging for electric vehicles. So all electric vehicles could charge from the same wireless "grid". No proprietary chargers. WPA SAE J2954
So this is big. Can you imagine parking at your local grocery store. And you car being recharged while parked, wirelessly. When you check out, part of your bill is the electricity that you used to recharge.
This is big!

 

[AuSeeker]

USA today (worthless rag) reported that SAE has gotten the auto manufactures to agree on wireless charging for electric vehicles. So all electric vehicles could charge from the same wireless "grid". No proprietary chargers. WPA SAE J2954
So this is big. Can you imagine parking at your local grocery store. And you car being recharged while parked, wirelessly. When you check out, part of your bill is the electricity that you used to recharge.
This is big!

Indeed, it would be big if in place now or the near future....but how many years will it take to get the infrastructure in place to match your grocery store scenario nation wide, not to mention getting all the vehicles compatible with such a system, at present there's not a wide spread infrastructure for current charging scenarios, mostly spotty and mostly in larger cities, certainly not what I would call anywhere close to nation wide.