Alright so it's time for me to hop on board. I had some thoughts regarding the issues the OP and ARB bring up. Disclaimer: I'm not a scientist/engineer/thermodynamisist/fluid flowologist
Claim is that the rubber flap in the stock breather makes it a one way valve and creates a vacuum. A vacuum is an airtight seal so there is negative pressure inside the axle housing. Once submerged the cooling draws water into the housing through the axle seals.
Issue I have with this theory is that water molecules are larger than air molecules. Therefore, if the axle housing holds an airtight vacuum, it will also be a water tight vacuum...
Reason I'm bringing it up is that I'm about to do mine and these breather plugs are terrible. Totally OEM and they just feel super cheap. I can actually rotate the cap to a sweet spot and get it to almost completely block airflow in either direction.
I also think Toyota engineers do their homework and have been running these rubber flap equipped one way valves for the better part of like 40 years now... I DO like the idea of having the valve being out of the way in case of mud or snow so I'm just moving the stock valve higher.