Hope for the best prepare for the worst.How are you prepping for the covid-19 virus.

[Jetboy]

It's perfectly valid to compare this novel coronavirus with the flu.

Per the video I posted earlier, non-novel coronavirus makes up 5-14% of all flu viruses in any given year.

This one's different because it's new, so the questions are what's the excess infection, illness, and mortality rates over the norm, where's a vaccine, and when will people's immune systems adjust.

A little statistics is a dangerous thing. The low initial mortality rate is not representative of a higher level of infection. For example, once you run out of ventilators, each additional ARD patient has a vastly different statistical probability of survival. That is not similar to the flu - at least not any flu that's occurred in any of our lifetimes. The second order effects are not similar and one is in an exponential growth rate that has vastly higher feedback in mortality rate from higher levels of spread than the other.


Comparing current mortality rate with a very limited initial spread is analogous to looking at a quarterly income statement from GE and one from a startup tech company and claiming that you can make long term valuation or long term planning decisions for both companies in a comparable way on that basis. The number has the same format and ostensibly measures the same thing - but we certainly wouldn't look to those numbers as the basis of making planning choices.

 

[Rapid_Amble]

A little statistics is a dangerous thing. The low initial mortality rate is not representative of a higher level of infection. For example, once you run out of ventilators, each additional ARD patient has a vastly different statistical probability of survival. That is not similar to the flu - at least not any flu that's occurred in any of our lifetimes. The second order effects are not similar and one is in an exponential growth rate that has vastly higher feedback in mortality rate from higher levels of spread than the other.


Comparing current mortality rate with a very limited initial spread is analogous to looking at a quarterly income statement from GE and one from a startup tech company and claiming that you can make long term valuation or long term planning decisions for both companies in a comparable way on that basis. The number has the same format and ostensibly measures the same thing - but we certainly wouldn't look to those numbers as the basis of making planning choices.

I think that's apples and lemons.

Intuitively makes sense to want to know how the rates of this novel coronovirus differs from the usual suspect coronavirus' for a wide variety of use cases.

For example, someone says in this article that up to 150m Americans could get this new coronavirus - up to 50% of the US population. That's a tall climb from the baseline norms and current known case levels with just over a month to go in prime flu season.
Up to 150 million Americans could get coronavirus: US projection

Edit: Thinking more about your analogy - that's actually the entire point! Perhaps you need to decide whether to invest your money into GE or into a startup. The relative valuations can inform your decision but of course the calculations will be based on different approaches. . .

 

[cb1111]

Some people will believe what they want to believe until the problems come home to roost and then they'll say "why didn't anybody tell me? Why didn't the government tell me what to do?"

What I do know is the numbers coming out of Italy as an example of what happens when the medical systems are overwhelmed.

35713 known cases, 2978 fatalities, so a 8%+ fatality rate at this moment but still rising.

 

[Rapid_Amble]

Some people will believe what they want to believe until the problems come home to roost and then they'll say "why didn't anybody tell me? Why didn't the government tell me what to do?"

What I do know is the numbers coming out of Italy as an example of what happens when the medical systems are overwhelmed.

35713 known cases, 2978 fatalities, so a 8%+ fatality rate at this moment but still rising.

Some people will still believe what they want to believe and fear monger.

Please explain to us why in 1918 Italy experienced the same pattern with the Spanish flu, and why the pattern was different in the US.

 

[rdruss]

The Bible's advice is always good, it is timeless: Proverb 22:3

" The shrewd one sees the danger and conceals himself, but the inexperienced keep right on going and suffer the consequences".

 

[nevada]

Some people will still believe what they want to believe and fear monger.

Please explain to us why in 1918 Italy experienced the same pattern with the Spanish flu, and why the pattern was different in the US.

correct.
the US and Italy are incomparable in regards to this situation.

 

[spartacus]

The Bible's advice is always good, it is timeless: Proverb 22:3

" The shrewd one sees the danger and conceals himself, but the inexperienced keep right on going and suffer the consequences".

It means don't hide and face the danger which in fact means taking appropriate action to mitigate the situation. In other words James 4.17, 'So whoever knows the right thing to do and fails to do it, for him it is sin.'

 

[Jetboy]

I think that's apples and lemons.

Intuitively makes sense to want to know how the rates of this novel coronovirus differs from the usual suspect coronavirus' for a wide variety of use cases.

For example, someone says in this article that up to 150m Americans could get this new coronavirus - up to 50% of the US population. That's a tall climb from the baseline norms and current known case levels with just over a month to go in prime flu season.
Up to 150 million Americans could get coronavirus: US projection

Edit: Thinking more about your analogy - that's actually the entire point! Perhaps you need to decide whether to invest your money into GE or into a startup. The relative valuations can inform your decision but of course the calculations will be based on different approaches. . .

The problem is that the rates of the flu and COVID-19 are not comparable. Assuming they are is like hypothesizing that 3 * 5 = 0 because it makes the math easier. We know that the assumption that the 1.7% is comparable is wrong because we know with a high degree of confidence that the mortality rate is non-linear in relationship to infection rates. The systemic risk of two different viruses with different underlying characteristics is not subject to evaluation by comparing the mortality rate. It's simply a mathematical error to assume they scale up similarly. Using that assumption to take action on is not appropriate.

 

[Jetboy]

correct.
the US and Italy are incomparable in regards to this situation.

Broadly, no, but locally yes. Some parts of the USA are very comparable. Florida looks a lot like Italy in demographics and population density.

 

[cb1111]

The other thing to consider is that the numbers today are next to worthless. You can't necessarily believe the numbers from China and the numbers from Iran are wildly under-reported - estimates are that the infection and fatalities are 10 times the "official" numbers in Iran.

 

[ElectroBoy]

Comparing Covid-19 to the flu is worthless. There exists some herd immunity every year to the flu, and yearly vaccines are developed. There is no immunity to Covid-19. Everyone is susceptible to infection.

 

[nevada]

Broadly, no, but locally yes. Some parts of the USA are very comparable. Florida looks a lot like Italy in demographics and population density.

Florida doesn't have the same healthcare system as Italy.

 

[Rapid_Amble]

The problem is that the rates of the flu and COVID-19 are not comparable. Assuming they are is like hypothesizing that 3 * 5 = 0 because it makes the math easier. We know that the assumption that the 1.7% is comparable is wrong because we know with a high degree of confidence that the mortality rate is non-linear in relationship to infection rates. The systemic risk of two different viruses with different underlying characteristics is not subject to evaluation by comparing the mortality rate. It's simply a mathematical error to assume they scale up similarly. Using that assumption to take action on is not appropriate.

I think we're in (violent?) agreement. There's not enough data currently to create a reliable estimation model. Planning and taking action are challenging.

On the other hand, people going round saying up to 1/2 the US population is going to fall ill and >9% are going to die, and comparing US to places like Italy, are not productive unless you want people to horde toilet paper.

 

[cb1111]

While nobody is comparing the health system in the US to that in Italy, we need to take drastic and immediate steps to assure that our system isn't overwhelmed like it is in Italy.

Going on spring break like everything is normal is counterproductive and potentially lethal

 

[Rapid_Amble]

Comparing Covid-19 to the flu is worthless. There exists some herd immunity every year to the flu, and yearly vaccines are developed. There is no immunity to Covid-19. Everyone is susceptible to infection.

They're both respiratory viruses. Every year 5-14% who get sick from the flu have a coronavirus.

So this one's new. Perfectly valid to understand the delta vs the norm.

I really do not understand the objection to arming one self with good information.

 

[ElectroBoy]

That's an interesting question and one that is impossible to answer. The reasons for a draconian social distancing is to slow the spread (that flattening of the curve) to allow the medical system to keep from being overwhelmed and for a vaccine to be developed.

Most of us (me included) initially looked at this and said "we've got a plan, we've got this", but some of us quickly realized that assumption was incorrect and we had to take swift and unprecedented actions. We looked at the situation much like the findings in this report that was published a few days ago and prompted the UK government to take action.

There are also problems with saying "why don't we have sufficient respirators?" because that addresses today's requirements. We cannot afford to address each and every possible scenario and stock huge supplies of ventilators, food, toilet paper, blood and so forth. We must plan for the known unknowns and cannot plan for the unknown unknowns - but - in future disasters we do need to be more resilient and learn (and act) far faster.

[MENTION=390705]cb1111[/MENTION], Thanks for passing this information along to us. After reading that report, my takeaway is that the modeling shows that the suppression techniques of social distancing, home isolation of infected cases, and closure of schools and universities are the most effective methods to keep from overwhelming our hospital systems during the pandemic.

And that this has to be maintained for approximately 18 months until an effective vaccine is distributed. This is very sobering.

 

[Rapid_Amble]

18 months, right.

CDC flu season data from 1982/1983 - 2017/2018

It's on this page if the image doesn't show
The Flu Season | CDC

 

[drewsro]

Honest question here. For those of you stocking up on guns and ammo (I don't own a gun), what is your reasoning for this? (specifically for the virus) I saw it mentioned a few times in this thread. Are you thinking a zombie apocalypse is going to happen? Do you plan on using it as self protection in case we get looters or Purge/apocalypse scenarios? Or for hunting in case we run out of food? I'm just curious of the thought process for this.

 

[RedSled]

Honest question here. For those of you stocking up on guns and ammo (I don't own a gun), what is your reasoning for this? (specifically for the virus) I saw it mentioned a few times in this thread. Are you thinking a zombie apocalypse is going to happen? Do you plan on using it as self protection in case we get looters or Purge/apocalypse scenarios? Or for hunting in case we run out of food? I'm just curious of the thought process for this.

You are aware that the walking dead started like this right?:AK47:

 

[drewsro]

You are aware that the walking dead started like this right?:AK47:

LOL I am really hoping that people don't actually think this will happen