Is the US Economy Improving?

[ToyTech99]

GMZ, I figured you were a Schiff follower (or supporter maybe?) based upon the way you view the economy. My guess is that you're a Ron Paul fan too...

There are two really popular guys who post videos on YouTube that you might find interesting. The first one goes by the name of VisionVictory. He banned me from posting on his channel because I called him out on some of his more crazy ideas. He's a big Peter S. guy himself. The other guy goes by the name "Man of Truth". He claims to have a Harvard MBA, although I kinda doubt that. The guys looks like a re****ed version of Steven Segal. Both of them are amusing to watch. You should check them out. They both made claims that the dollar is doomed, marshall law will come when food shortages begin, people will have to resort to living off the land. We should buy wheat by the bucket, buy guns and ammo, become farmers, etc... I think they're both idiots, but for some reason I keep finding myself going back to watch their videos to see their latest crazy claims. The sad thing is that the VisionVictory guy does seem half intelligent. It's just that he doesn't understand how a world economy works, so he's just misguided, although he probably means well. He appears smart enough that he has a pretty decent following on YouTube. Check him out if you have some spare time.

 

[Thai]

Foreclosures just increased over 5 percent....

 

[GMZ]

GMZ, I figured you were a Schiff follower (or supporter maybe?) based upon the way you view the economy. My guess is that you're a Ron Paul fan too...

There are two really popular guys who post videos on YouTube that you might find interesting. The first one goes by the name of VisionVictory. He banned me from posting on his channel because I called him out on some of his more crazy ideas. He's a big Peter S. guy himself. The other guy goes by the name "Man of Truth". He claims to have a Harvard MBA, although I kinda doubt that. The guys looks like a re****ed version of Steven Segal. Both of them are amusing to watch. You should check them out. They both made claims that the dollar is doomed, marshall law will come when food shortages begin, people will have to resort to living off the land. We should buy wheat by the bucket, buy guns and ammo, become farmers, etc... I think they're both idiots, but for some reason I keep finding myself going back to watch their videos to see their latest crazy claims. The sad thing is that the VisionVictory guy does seem half intelligent. It's just that he doesn't understand how a world economy works, so he's just misguided, although he probably means well. He appears smart enough that he has a pretty decent following on YouTube. Check him out if you have some spare time.

Yea you could say that, for both. Their positions do make sense, although thats a topic for another thread.

Ill check out those guys. For a while I was into the conspiracy stuff, but it was just a big sidetrack because what really interests me is the economics. Even if all the stuff they say does happen, we have to go through our own economic circus first anyway.

 

[hyperthread]

Just bringing back this old thread alive. Do you think the economy here in the States is still improving? I think it is improving but the government is somehow botching it up when it comes to timely decisions etc.

And how come stocks are not based to the companies performance anymore? Is this because of globalization?

 

[Kung]

I'd have to look at the leading indicators; they're what always precede the economy. E.g., housing starts, consumer goods orders, etc. If they're down, then no.

 

[BrianSD_42]

It's alive (again)!

And how come stocks are not based to the companies performance anymore? Is this because of globalization?

Dude you should really read up on the lost decade 2000- 2010.

 

[BrianSD_42]

Of course the economy is improving. I'm surprised someone would even create a poll for something that can be factually proven.

I know this forum is old but I have to ask ToyTech (if you are still around here) Dude do you have a college level understanding of economics? Have you taken any classes? Because your dismissive statement is absolute bullsh$t.

The question "is the economy improving" is so complex that there is no 'obvious' or definitive answer, only indicators out of which you can try to formulate an (unproven) theory.

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ToyTech:

BTW, I recently decided to buy a new car (but not sell my 4Runner!) and I'm paying cash for it. I'm getting a G37 Coupe, 6-speed manual with navigation and premium packages. The sticker price is $44K, but I can buy it for invoice price, plus a $3000 rebate (manufacturer to dealer), so I can only thank the poor economy for me being able to get this awesome car for about $8000 less than MSRP. If I was really worried about the economy, I wouldn't be dropping that kind of cash on a new car that I don't need. It's more of a weekend toy than anything else. But the fact that I'm buying it pretty much says that I'm not worried about the economy. It will recover.

This is your evidence? That you are rich and have $40,000 to blow on a car you don't need. Must be nice to be you dude. Far from actual economics. Just because you are not worried about the economy doesn't mean it isn't in trouble. This example is a load of BS. :ybrick:

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BTW, if I was bad at managing my money, I wouldn't have $40K cash to buy a new car, would I? LOL

Well you could just be some rich @sshole who inherited his money instead of working for it like the rest of us. I just got my college degree after serving 6 years enlisted in the armed forces and then working my way through school. I understand what it is to work for a dollar; perhaps you do as well but it doesn't sound like it.

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How has it been possible that we've been able to sustain all that debt for all those years? Think about it....

The Cliffs Notes version is that we can sustain it because we can afford it. To put it very simply, when you apply for a mortgage, an underwriter looks at your income to determine the amount you can afford to mortgage. Well, it's then reasonable to compare the U.S. national debt with the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to get a real sense of the amount of debt our country can carry.

You clearly don't know anything about the collapse of 2008.

One of the main reasons for the collapse was that bankers gave out loans to people who couldn't afford the loan or issued shady loans and then sold them. They didn't care if the family could pay back the money because they immediately commoditized / bundled the loans and then resold them as a new product.

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Personally I think the government is doing the same thing right now. Politicians are willing to put everything on a credit card ($1.3 trillion dollar deficit in 2012) just so the wheels keep turning long enough for them to get re-elected. While they are in office they make an enormous amount of money gaming the stock market since SEC rules do not apply to congress. It is corruption on a mass-scale.


Edit: I think ToyTech was banned or something since he has no listed posts. Either way his posts on economics are bull cr@p.

 

[BrianSD_42]

ToyTech wrote:

Dow closed over 10,000. Haven't seen that for more than a year now....

S&P is up

NASDAQ is up.

It is upsetting to constantly hear misinformed people talk about the Dow closing at 10,000 or 12,000 as if that is a good thing. Educate yourself!

Google "dow jones adjusted inflation." You will find that the truth is very different from what is spoken on CNBC.

In reality, as of December 2011 the Dow Jones is FAR FAR FAR below what it was in 2000 once adjusted for inflation. Like Orwell pointed out, people have pretty poor memories, 2 + 2 = 5.


See picture below and some links.

:withstupid:

Fred's Intelligent Bear Site - Inflation Adjusted DJIA

the compelling Real DJIA, 1924-now

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/long-term-chart-inflation-adjusted-dow-jones-industrial-3691.html