the best way to figure out what you need is to just go out there. For me, i tend to stay away from technical trails unless i have to go on that trail to get to camp, so i ended up spending my money on the following:
1. low profile/slimline/hybrid front bumper w/ high clearance cutout: This has served me well. I was able to do moab, mohave road, pucker road (sp), boxcar canyon and a bunch of water crossings without damaging anything, or losing anything except a bolt. So that negates a need for a full plate front bumper.
2. front skids are important. I took a few hits on the aluminum front skids, and its held up fine both from high speed hits because i was too slow to dodge a boulder in the middle of the track, and obviously i took some slow speed hits in Moab playing on rocks.
3. Gas tank skid: I saw a buddy land hard on the gas tank skid in Moab. I picked a different line, and didn't take the hit but I ended up ordering it when i got home.
4. rear shock skids: this is actually important and not really talked about. I saw first hand this get hit on my truck and others in the convoy. Usually what happens is another vehicle will kick up a boulder in front of you, and you have no choice but to take the hit since you don't know where the boulder is going to stop rolling and you are going to fast to stop. Also, sometimes you slip off a rock or are straddling a rut and slip into the rut you were avoiding and bam....hit a rock.
optional:
1. transfer case/transmission skids: i have them, but haven't taken any hits on them, mainly because your front will take the hit first, or your lower hanging fruit in the rear will take a hit. You might as well buy this as part of your offroad insurance policy, since the tranny/transfer case damage will probably ruin your day.
2. Lower link skids: its a good idea to have these if you play in rock gardens. I have them as a insurance policy, but haven't taken a hit on them yet.
3. rear diff skid: not really necessary since our rear diff is pretty beefy. I've taken some hits to this skid, but it acts more like a slider for the rear diff, so less likely to get turtled on it (or my reasoning). It gives some protection to your Elocker (if you have it).
4. front lower A arm skid. Not really necessary, I bought it because it makes the LCA a flat surface so less likely to get stuck if they get caught on a rock. I've seen that happen a few times (although i've never seen any actual damage the LCA).
Well thats my reasoning for why I have all that stuff, and what I actually have used/damaged/hit in the real world. I don't regret having all this armor. Only thing i probably would do differently is go all aluminum if i could, since i rarely play in rock gardens and want to save as much weight as possible.