This message is for anyone searching for a solution in the future.
Turns out you can replace the cable alone.
I got into this today after reading a post on TW about how the cable snapped on the highway and dropped a tire on the car behind him. Its your liability.
https://www.tacomaworld.com/threads/check-your-spare-tire-carrier.497837/
If your winch is working its not too bad of a job. If its not working, spray the hell out of it with white lithium grease and try again the next day. It should move some. If not get a cutoff tool and some safety glasses.
Cable is 3/16. Get 3 feet. Get some wire cable end ferrules and cable wire clamps. Get a cable swager. Watch youtube and learn how to use it. Geta large shackle and a thimble. These are all common cable wire materials. Lowes has all of this stuff.
Here some pics you havent seen of the winch without wire to guide your way. See the notch in the wheel? Thats where you ferrule goes. Dont think it will hold?
Watch this. Even 1/8 line can hold over 800lbs.
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Loctite rust remover and repaint the two old parts you see there. System rated to over 1000lbs. Tire weighs 70.
Total cost $40, and no ripping the old one down. If you already have a swager, or rent one. $10. And you learned something new.