Here’s how I like to think about it:
Toyota has a team of very well educated actuaries that understand statistics beyond what I ever will. They price the extended warranty based on the odds of the vehicle needing a warranty repair. In order for me to “win” with my warranty I have to bet that my vehicle will be more unreliable than these think it will be. So essentially, I’m betting that my vehicle will breakdown more often than a staff of very well educated statisticians think it will, at least based on he predicted cost of repairs.
You can’t think of t as anything but insurance. If you literally could not afford a repair beyond the warranty period, then it might Be worth it. However, it would be a better financial decision to skip the warranty and just make sure you’ve got some funds saved up for life’s little mishaps.
Well said. I apply that same logic to my home warranty (and don't buy one). However, I did get the extended warranty on my 4Runner. I got a Limited 4x4 and the way I saw it, there are so many bells and whistles that present a lot of opportunity for problems.