A total automobile-industry shutdown from a liquidation of GM and Chrysler would have cut 2.63 million jobs from the U.S. economy in 2009, according to a study by the Center for Automotive Research released just hours before the Treasury announced its stake sale. The bailout saved or avoided the loss of $105 billion in transfer payments and the loss of personal and social insurance tax collection in 2009 and 2010, according to CAR.
The auto bailout will rank as “one of the most important interventions, maybe the most important, in U.S. economic history,” Sean McAlinden, CAR’s chief economist, who led the analysis, said yesterday in a telephone interview. Without it, “the upper Midwest would still be a gaping, double-digit unemployment hole in the economy, 600,000 retirees would’ve lost their pensions.”