ElectroBoy
Banned
Is 12K right? Were hospital ICUs and ventilators overrun back then?
Hope for the best prepare for the worst.How are you prepping for the covid-19 virus.
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Is 12K right? Were hospital ICUs and ventilators overrun back then?
Rapid_Amble
New member
The number is correct 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
Don’t know about ICU beds and ventilator demands. Maybe plenty of both back in the good old days of 2009?
Muzzle of Bees
New member
You might to get educated about what socialism is before you comment. Your visioning pure communism. Stalin did not achieve Socialism in the Soviet Union as he admitted. People regularly interchange these since it’s been brow beat into us to ensure the US has regular enemies. It’s an easy way to keep everyone in fear.
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Charlievee
Senior Member
"Lighten up Francis" 30 more days of winter.
ElectroBoy
Banned
Hmmm... from April ‘09 to April ‘10 there were approximately 12K deaths. Stupid math says 1000 deaths per month average.
This year from January 21 to March 29 CDC reports 2112 deaths. Looks like we’re right on track to equal or exceed 12K. That doesn’t make me feel better. Of course we really can’t compare the two cases like this. Until it’s all over. Hold tight.
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Muzzle of Bees
New member
It’s sad that people cannot educate themselves and believe in fairytales.
Charlievee
Senior Member
Indeed
cb1111
Member
In the year of the H1N1 (April 2009 -April 2010), there were roughly 275,000 hospitalizations with between 14 and 18% requiring ICU admission (so 38500 to 49500) with roughly half of the ICU patients requiring mechanical ventilation (call it 22,000).
Remember that not all patients need ventilators at the same time and if you look at the curve then half are ahead of the peak and half afterwards, so at no time do you need more than half of all required ventilators (so about 11000 at peak). The Strategic National Stockpile has about 10,000 ventilators and that does not include the tens of thousands of ventilators in hospitals.
There were roughly 60 million cases of H1N1 in the US (that we know of) so .4% were hospitalized. COVID19 data to date seems to imply about a 10% hospitalization rate. With 150,000 cases currently (again that we know of) that means that 15000 are in hospital and about 2700 in ICU needing 1350 ventilators.
A greater limiting factor may the roughly 300,000 hospital beds that are empty at any given time.
ElectroBoy
Banned
Damn. Now I have to join the ranks of the hoarders:
Trump Extends Social Distancing Guidelines For 30 More Days
Trump Extends Social Distancing Guidelines For 30 More Days : NPR
Trump Extends Social Distancing Guidelines For 30 More Days
Trump Extends Social Distancing Guidelines For 30 More Days : NPR
Brick Sprickly
New member
Don't mind him he's let the Army cynicism take him.
30 more days of shutdown is not good news. A lot of businesses might be able to go 2 weeks. 6 weeks is another story.
And food for thought for H1N1, 2009-2010 were some of the highest unemployment years in the last 40 years. Perhaps a reason it did not spread as much as it could had...everyone was already home practicing social distancing.
And food for thought for H1N1, 2009-2010 were some of the highest unemployment years in the last 40 years. Perhaps a reason it did not spread as much as it could had...everyone was already home practicing social distancing.
Jetboy
New member
Ethical question: Lots of NYC residents are fleeing to small towns including my home town. Is it appropriate for small towns to reject medical treatment to them? The small towns do not have the medical infrastructure to handle out of town "guests" and their own local residents. They've publicly asked them not to come for that reason. Moab is a great example. They ask people not to come, they close all the hotels. Yet selfish *******s just keep going. So what is the answer?
My take is that it is perfectly rational and reasonable if the time comes to triage on the basis of whether that person is local or not in that scenario. Make it known publicly and locally. Signs at the airport. Personally - if I were the governor of western states, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Hawaii etc. I'd set up at every airport with a quarantine holding area and anyone from NY, CA, or WA gets to spend the first 14 days as a guest of the state in a quarantine. I know Rhode Island is trying to do something like that unsuccessfully by stopping any car on the road with NY plates. Legal? Probably not. I'm not sure how else you keep those folks home. Maybe it's time at a national level require something like a visa for air travel and prohibit tourism for a few weeks.
My take is that it is perfectly rational and reasonable if the time comes to triage on the basis of whether that person is local or not in that scenario. Make it known publicly and locally. Signs at the airport. Personally - if I were the governor of western states, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Hawaii etc. I'd set up at every airport with a quarantine holding area and anyone from NY, CA, or WA gets to spend the first 14 days as a guest of the state in a quarantine. I know Rhode Island is trying to do something like that unsuccessfully by stopping any car on the road with NY plates. Legal? Probably not. I'm not sure how else you keep those folks home. Maybe it's time at a national level require something like a visa for air travel and prohibit tourism for a few weeks.
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Charlievee
Senior Member
Not sure where you home town is, but there have been stories of NYC folks "invading " the Hamptons. Durring summer even. Weird. I think it gets more convoluted if they own property in said small towns.
thennen
New member
I understand wanting to get the heck out of the fire. That's a normal reaction, I think. I wonder where these people are going if the small-town hotels are closed?
You are right - taxing the small medical infrastructure of a small town is wrong, especially if it serves no purpose other than to convenience yourself. Maybe an option: if you come here (to Moab or wherever), we will first test you to confirm you're not sick. THEN, once we confirm you're not a risk to our residents, you get to do low-risk volunteer work for the duration of your stay - trash cleanup, etc., etc. The town could have a list of "approved" volunteer tasks that prove really helpful to the community. Don't show up, and you get booted.
Perhaps this could be a way to weed out the freeloaders and get a benefit from the NY escapees?
spartacus
Senior Member
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Testing people and then self quarntining for those that are infected would be a better option then collective labelling of a group of people based on place of origin. Infact targeting a group of people based on origin is not only unethical but unconstitutional.
Everyone is eventually going to be infected with this virus over time. So the order of the day is to give the Medical professinals and establishments enough time to treat those that need it without overwhelming the system. Instead of each town and city coming up with its own plan would be better to let the CDC do its job and follow it's guidelines.
Case and point howard county, Ind, is dictating to Walmart and other stores what they can sell to consumers because they know what's best.
Howard County businesses ordered to stop selling ‘non-essential’ items | WTTV CBS4Indy
Testing people and then self quarntining for those that are infected would be a better option then collective labelling of a group of people based on place of origin. Infact targeting a group of people based on origin is not only unethical but unconstitutional.
Everyone is eventually going to be infected with this virus over time. So the order of the day is to give the Medical professinals and establishments enough time to treat those that need it without overwhelming the system. Instead of each town and city coming up with its own plan would be better to let the CDC do its job and follow it's guidelines.
Case and point howard county, Ind, is dictating to Walmart and other stores what they can sell to consumers because they know what's best.
Howard County businesses ordered to stop selling ‘non-essential’ items | WTTV CBS4Indy
Jetboy
New member
My hometown is Bozeman, MT. My parent's neighbor is an example - retired New Yorkers, then they have all their kids come from New York to wait out the situation. In doing so they bring both spread of the virus and a lot more people to a small hospital system. And it's happening all over small town USA. I'm not going there because it's unethical to put small towns at risk even though it would be a great time to go hang out on my family's ranch. I'd also love to go spend some days cruising around Moab or Monticello.
I'd love to think that most people are reasonable and at least a little bit ethical, but I think there's a big portion of our population who are neither. And the only way in a me-first society to solve the problem is make sure that those people will not harm others by setting up a system where they can't even if they try. It's not okay to put the small town at risk.
Jetboy
New member
The problem is entitled people are not following the guidelines. So do you step in to force them to stop by fines? Arrests? It's a fuzzy line between coughing on produce at a supermarket and flying from NYC to Ames Iowa. The latter could be a lot more dangerous. I think we have to accept that there are plenty of entitled people who think the rules don't apply to them. So my take is that the only way to solve the problem is to do so either by law or by preventing those people from harming others by disallowing access to limited resources (hospital beds etc.)
Ideally the FAA should have rolling blackouts at hotspots to prohibit all non-essential flights in/out of cities that are hot spots. Or local gov in small towns should start shutting down airports for now.
Jetboy
New member
I think a lot of them are renting VRBOs or staying with family/friends. I think the test would help. I don't think the small towns want "volunteers" from NYC. It's not generally working class folks evacuating the city. Even if they don't bring the virus with them, they're causing the population to balloon so when things do go bad, the medical infrastructure built for 10,000 or 30,000 is now expected to handle 50,000.
Moab as an example has 4 ventilators total. IMO zero of those should be made available for anyone who is not a Moab full time resident unless they are currently unused. I can only imagine what's happening to small towns in upstate NY. I'm guessing they're getting inundated and have no way to deal with it.
spartacus
Senior Member
You maybe right about entitled people but I have to disagree on the point that, if they are not infected and are not a public health risk then collectively quarantining them with sick people is wrong.Testing people is the only viable option.
thennen
New member
Yeah, I get you. Maybe the best statement to make about all this is that nobody has the best answer. I think that may underscore the need for us to all be a bit more forgiving and try to do right by each other. It'll pass eventually. Appreciate your viewpoints.
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