Shamish, it all depends on relative humidity, ambient temperature and how tight your lights are "sealed". I will try to be brief, but I will not succeed.
And if I am preaching to the choir, please forgive me.
I may be wrong, but I do not think our vehicle light fixtures are air tight. There are enough "leaks" so to speak to let the immediate air, whatever the humidity level, in and out of the light fixtures. (I think)
In saying that, know this. The higher the ambient air temperature, the more moisture (water in vaporized form aka "humidity") can be mixed within the air without "condensing". The lower the temp, the denser the air and moisture has to go. As the air gets "denser" because of lower temp, it is like squeezing a sponge. The reaction is called "Condensation". You have probably heard the term "Dew Point"? This is what the weather folks are talking about.
Our headlights are a perfect example. Let's say that during the day just before you headlights showed condensation within, the ambient temperature was 80 degrees and your area had a relative humidity of say 60%. (This is just an example).. That night, the temp dropped to 50 degrees. The air inside you headlights also dropped to the same temperature. The problem is, the "air" inside your headlights (as well as everywhere around you), can only hold 20% humidity at 50%, thus some of the humidity has to come out of the air in the form of condensation.
Again, this is just an example. There are charts which can show the exact temp/moisture combinations which indicate dew points.
The point I am trying to make is that unless your ambient air temp was below freezing with a very low humidity level, placing ice cubes on our headlights or taillight will in fact, produce condensation.....this test is, IMHO not a valid test. Just like taking a glass of ice water and placing it in your air conditioned house, you will get condensation on the glass!
If Toyota really thinks our headlights are supposed to be hermetically sealed in a vacuum, well that is a different story. But I doubt this is the case.
Just sayin bud. New lights all around will not survive the ice cube test.....be safe.