Well if we are getting technical, you should through weight differences of larger/smaller tires as well as rotating mass and sprung/unsprung weight in the mix
So many variables with tires.
Yes, there are many more variables that I didn't mention. I don't/didn't have time to type out an essay on tires, though.
I also didn't mention inflation pressure, different tire construction methods, rubber compounds, number of belts, the type of belts, the material used in the construction of the belts, etc., etc., etc.
The point was and is that yes, tires can affect MPG.