PSA: Higher prices coming
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Endlessblockades
Senior Member
When did prices go down last (other than gas)? I try to buy as soon as I can, generally.
Brian.
Member
Honestly, this all feels like 2007~8 again to me, where things cost too much and it just feels like a "too good to be true" situation. We haven't gotten to the end of the mortgage and rent forbearance yet, I expect that'll be the start of the correction process.
So, I see it more like, if you're in a situation where you have something sitting around that you can SELL and cash in on this bubble, you might want to consider doing so. Personally, I have a feeling that 12~18 months from now we're going to see a lot more struggle. Buying anything right now, again based on my personal speculation of what's to come, will be buying at the top end of the market and whatever you've bought won't be worth 2/3rds that price in 2 years.
So, I see it more like, if you're in a situation where you have something sitting around that you can SELL and cash in on this bubble, you might want to consider doing so. Personally, I have a feeling that 12~18 months from now we're going to see a lot more struggle. Buying anything right now, again based on my personal speculation of what's to come, will be buying at the top end of the market and whatever you've bought won't be worth 2/3rds that price in 2 years.
Endlessblockades
Senior Member
Some commodities with finite supply are more immune to correction like 3rd Gen 4Runners and property in some geographical areas - they're not making any more of these. Nearly all the BTC has been mined.
gamefreakgc
Elite Member
I don't think housing will correct hardly at all this time around though. Check the price of lumber. It's over 3x more expensive than it was at the peak of the housing craze in 2005-06. That means that builders have to charge more for their homes to keep the same profit margin, which they will. This will also tighten the already tight supply of inventory on the market, which is what we've seen now for over a year.
I don't think we are entering a period of hyperinflation where we will be taking wheelbarrows of cash to buy groceries, but inflation is very real right now. Any physical asset is going up in price very quickly, which includes vehicles. At least over here in CA we've been used to $4 a gallon gas for a few years already.
yep, prices are going nuts up here too on everything....lumber is nuts. Even 4runners....example I need a fender. a few months ago a used fender was 100, its now 200.....stupid ( only one wrecker in town, not a pick and pull, and shipping anything from the lower 48 is $$$$$$$
and now these 4runner prices are going nuts. Might have to keep my 2001...been looking for a 99 or 2000.
here is one crazy example....and im sure its trashed. Bet the tranny has seen better days.
2001 Toyota 4 runner plow truck - cars & trucks - by owner - vehicle...
a 99 was on craigslist 2 days ago...just an SR-5 , cloth...same owner for 7 years, and it was listed at 12k and was off craigslist in 1 day.
paid 4500 for my 2001 in december, but I could flip it for at least 6 even with bad fender.
and now these 4runner prices are going nuts. Might have to keep my 2001...been looking for a 99 or 2000.
here is one crazy example....and im sure its trashed. Bet the tranny has seen better days.
2001 Toyota 4 runner plow truck - cars & trucks - by owner - vehicle...
a 99 was on craigslist 2 days ago...just an SR-5 , cloth...same owner for 7 years, and it was listed at 12k and was off craigslist in 1 day.
paid 4500 for my 2001 in december, but I could flip it for at least 6 even with bad fender.
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I'd normally agree, but the government is literally dumping money in people's checking accounts. I'm not sure there will be a deflationary correction. This is straight up money printing. You are right that something will break sooner or later.
Hard to say... I agree that prices cannot continue to progress in the way that they are but will they come down is a different question. There is clearly a willingness to attempt to print our way out of anything. We can't lower interest rates anymore unless they go negative (wtf?). I think that because of the 2008 crash, everyone is terrified any time there is downward pressure in the housing prices. There will be a willingness to correct any semblance of downward pressure. The government believes it is their responsibility to fix everything and the people believe they can. Most people seem to view the stimulus checks as their rich grandfather handing them money without realizing they and their children will be paying for it. Same with student loan forgiveness, etc. What happened to believing there is no free lunch? My biggest fear is that we destroy the dollar trying to subvert short term pain. If we become too volatile and lose our reserve currency status, this is no longer the country that it has been in the last century.
The currently hot economic theory (Modern Monetary Theory) posits that you can print money with near immunity. Printing money alone does not cause inflation essentially and deficits do not have a large impact on countries that control their own fiat currencies. This theory is being pushed in universities and is maintained by influential economists in high places. It is being sold as educational material which many believe to be completely true. Policies are being influenced by those that buy wholesale into the idea. I need to do more reading on it but it sounds non-sensical at face value. I think there are kernels of truth to it but it's playing with a nuclear bomb.
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Brian.
Member
I see my view is contrary to several of you. It's all perspective, I'm in an ultra poor county where housing prices have now inflated 3x what they were just a couple years ago and there are no jobs that pay enough to support those prices. The one big employer, Georgia-Pacific, shut down their plant last year and haven't restarted, putting even more strain on the local economy. The piddly sum of "free money" is not Nearly enough to account for the price increases I'm seeing. Basically, my view is that this is a winch line working past it's load rating and resting on a sharp edge, it's going to snap, it's going to be chaotic when it snaps and a lot of people are going to suffer. Past that, I expect there will be price corrections simply because the demand won't be there anymore. The people who couldn't afford the toys that the "free money" allowed them to buy, will end up selling those toys to cover other, essential, costs. Those who bought in on high housing and get hit with high taxes that they can't afford, will sell (or default). It's not like employers are paying any more... my wife hasn't seen a raise of ANY kind in 6 years, and that raise was from changing employers, it only accounted for an extra thousand or so a year (medical field). I certainly haven't seen a raise/increase in income of any kind since ~2008.
Maybe it's simple hope that I haven't found myself pushed out of middle class and straight into poverty for good. Perhaps that fear is coloring my perspective... forcing me to Want economic correction that at least gets me back close to where I was in January 2020.
Maybe it's simple hope that I haven't found myself pushed out of middle class and straight into poverty for good. Perhaps that fear is coloring my perspective... forcing me to Want economic correction that at least gets me back close to where I was in January 2020.
There is an excellent podcast called Hidden Forces about this stuff you should check. He has top tier exoerts on there and none of them even know wtf is going on. I suspect we'll get some sort of Japanese style stagflation.
I'll have to check it out. On the whole thing overall, most honest arbiters admit that we can't possibly know and this particular situation is enormously complex. I fear that we are moving towards mob rule where the most confident of idiots are being exalted. We've gotten too comfortable as a nation and people believe the government can sustain that level of comfort. People are willing to give up liberties so long as they don't have to remove their safety blanket.
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” - Charles Bukowski
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Devbot
New member
Very well said. People these days will give up literally every last liberty they have purely because it's convenient - "convenience will be our downfall" as I frequently say.
Novels like 1984, On A Pale Horse, Industrial Society And Its Future, etc. becomes ever more relevant everyday, and everyone seems to realize it, but you're a bad guy if you acknowledge it. Crazy how that works, if only there were prominent novels and intellectuals to warn people of exactly this. But the politcians that are most guilty of these points have promised that they dont exist, and people eat it up without thinking - like how those who instill the most tyranny will be the first to try and tell you it's all a fallacy.
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Endlessblockades
Senior Member
God Bless Buk.
i thought this had to do with the toyota 4runner forum.....silly me....at least my post mentinoned 4runners a few times. silly me...i thought we were talking about 4runner prices
obviously this is in the wrong forum....or wrong thread....should be under anything else thread or off topic thread, but yes a lot of the mentioned above does in turn effect 4runner prices......just did not know that this was gonna be a political thread and its turnig that way.....and soon its gonna start mentioning political parties and ideals, income, gun control,my fishing rods and control them, McDonalds, religion, countries and people color
obviously this is in the wrong forum....or wrong thread....should be under anything else thread or off topic thread, but yes a lot of the mentioned above does in turn effect 4runner prices......just did not know that this was gonna be a political thread and its turnig that way.....and soon its gonna start mentioning political parties and ideals, income, gun control,my fishing rods and control them, McDonalds, religion, countries and people color
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Fine, I'll play nice, provide some anecdotes, and shake my fist in the air.
3rd gen prices are getting pretty cracked out but I actually think they're going to stay up for the most part. It's a desirable truck based SUV (which is rare now) that a lot of people had fond memories of throughout their lifetime. For me, a 3rd gen was my first vehicle. It's becoming an iconic design that is still super durable. Over the last few years, the ones owned by normal people who just change fluids seem to be atrophying. Enthusiast owned ones that have been taken care of are more rare and are becoming coveted. The generation that grew up desiring 90s/00s cars is now coming into career stability and surplus income. Desirable 90s/00s cars are up in value heavily across the board. Overlanding is becoming super trendy and the 3rd gen can be a cool daily/overlander still. It has a smaller footprint than probably any body on frame SUV recently made. There's all sorts of rational and emotional reasons as to why they could go up. I think values will fluctuate with general economic conditions but I don't think clean, well running examples are going to be sold for $2.5k or going to the junkyard.
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