To all those that have said the world's oil supply is renewable or not finite, I have a bridge to sell you. It’s a nice old bridge between Manhattan and Brooklyn.
Of course, I’m an environmentalist which only means I care about the human environment. We should all be environmentalists. But some have confused that word with SUV critic. You can try to discredit the messenger all you want by innuendo and name-calling but in the end, the fact still remains that the end for fossil fuels is in sight. It could start next year after the presidential election, or 5 or 10 years from now, but it’s coming. Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico are mere drops in the bucket (barrel?) compared to the increased oil demand coming online. Why do you think Bush/Cheney’s Arab cronies have agreed to pump more oil for the time being? I keep thinking of the song (by the Beach Boys?) about having fun, fun, fun until “Daddy takes the TBird away”. Well, I fear that will be analogous to ride, ride, ride in our SUV’s until Abdullah takes the oil away. It is possible to have an artificial shortage before the real one comes. Those of us, who remember what it was like in 1973 and 1979 know this very well. Those were warnings, not anomalies. There is an iceberg up ahead; will the Titanic be able to turn in time? I can still remember those odd and even days and the long lines for gas. It can happen again you know, but it doesn’t have to hit us the same way. Some, who don’t want to believe it, will call those who caution about this happening, pessimists and people who are always “crying wolf”. Talking about animals, don’t you think Cheney meeting only with fossil fuel companies’ executives about America’s future energy needs and dependence is like putting the “fox in the hen house”? But, if I were to start proposing the many ways we know and already have on the shelf to relieve some of our foreign dependence on foreign oil, someone who has no more to say about it than “that’s all pie in sky,” will come along and try to shoot it down because they don’t like the message. It scares them.
In real money terms, the price of gasoline is right now about where it peaked about 20 or so years ago. I suspect that’s going to end. Not because I said so, but because the fundamental laws of physics, human nature, and economics say so. You might see minor perturbations in the near future, but the overall slope (of the price of oil) is positive, and will be increasing in its rate of climb. The slope of the total finite world oil/natural gas/coal reserves (discovered and yet to be discovered) is negative and it’s rate of decline will increase as more large countries of the world want their piece of the “pie” too. We haven’t even touched on global warming and how increased fossil fuel use is contributing to that too. Ah, but some would say there I go crying wolf again, global warming doesn’t exist or won't harm us. Time will tell. I hope all the scientists and “experts” who tell us so, are wrong, but somehow I fear they’re not.
I believe, with some human ingenuity and wherewithal, barring a catastrophic event and/or terrorism act(s), we can still have our SUV’s with most of their performance characteristics (if that’s all that’s on your mind). The slowing and possible stopping of the degradation of the human environment will all depend on changes in the political and corporate environments, moving away from corruption and greed. Some say that it will never happen. Maybe that is really the “Pie in the Sky” dream.
If America continues down this path of losing it’s technological skills (through a declining and wasteful public educational system), good American jobs due to “outsourcing”, and economic supremacy because of corruption, greed, mismanagement, and poor leadership, she will become a third-rate nation and power in the world. That is not pie in the sky, it can happen. It did happen to Rome. Why are we different? “Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it.”
All this talk of pie is making me hungry.
