Thanks carmaker! I was waiting for you to chime in.
Thanks, I am sorry again for disappearing with no direct response. I've been traveling a lot and chasing a lot of deadlines. Now in Melbourne, Australia for Xmas and NY's.
carmaker wins the most multi-quotes in a single response award. Nicely done. :first:
Haha, it's unfortunate that's the case. I feel like every comment deserves acknowledgement, if somehow a question.
I don't know. I went to three Lexus dealerships when I was considering the GX and all three sales dudes pitched the V8 engine and the legendary Lexus relaibility as the primary selling points. It seemed to be a rehearsed part of the soft sell.
Now, if I were a soccer mom would they have used the same tactic? Beats me.
Unfortunately, it's part of their decades old training methods. You might see this in some old training manuals from the 1990s and early 2000s, on how to approach male and female customers differently, even based on age demographic.
A young single lady interested in a GX, will be treated differently than a middle age woman near her 60s. Hell, they might try and convince her to get an NX or RX, until she makes it clear she's interested in the 4WD attributes of the GX.
Thanks [MENTION=166416]Carmaker1[/MENTION] for the update and all the insights!
I do have a question for you.....
Do you think the 6th gen will come with the same Hybrid Max that is offered in the Crown (and sounds like it will be offered in the Tacoma), or will it be something similar with unique features?
I remember you mentioning a while ago that there was a pivot in the 6th gen hybrid design and that was one of the reasons it was running late.
I can't remember if you said they were going to offer the option to run ICE mode, Hybrid mode, and Electric mode.........or perhaps that was an incorrect interpretation (on my part) of what you were saying.
I went out of my way to not ask for further clarification on that statement from my source, because I've learned that when I am too nosy, yet don't share Ford intel back with a source, they ghost me...
This is indicative of people who work professionally in that capacity and not adjacent insiders, who are simply messengers and not firsthand knowledge sources. Hybrid Max will be in the TRD Pro Tacoma, but this sounded like a 4Runner Prime of some sort. I'm probably wrong, as was last discussed with him 18 months ago.
Welcome back [MENTION=166416]Carmaker1[/MENTION]! Glad to see you back and continuing to help us figure out what Toyota is doing over the next few years, especially with the 4Runner!
With those AVF sheets I figured those dates definitely weren’t concrete, then finding the weekly sheets confirmed they’re changing all the time. Like you said, wouldn’t be surprised if they were some estimates too.
After being posted all over forums by people like me, it appears they’ve plugged the leak.
Looking forward to continue seeing your posts (if ya hang around still)!
Sorry for disappearing again, I couldn't keep up with logging after leaving Dallas and returning to Detroit. I had to do significant packing for Australia, plus finish up some deadlines and after a long day, I always would forget. I'm settled to at least Sunday/Monday.
Anyway, yeah about those dates, they are close and well thought out, but not concrete based on internal movements. The 4Runner is coming earlier than that in reality...for now that is. These delays always happen, as well as the opposite.
And yes, they know that unfortunately. They will check around and cover their ass, as Toyota only wants those in the hands of industry folk only.
@carmaker
I thought it was about you...I had read a while back that it was becoming increasingly risky (professionally) for you to share Toyota information on forums like this.
Has that "danger" passed? There's no reason for your to take a professional risk just to satisfy our curiosity.
Thanks.
Not my work necessarily, if it concerns Toyota, but let's say some other forums. I commented on the delay to MY 2025 6 months and I could tell lurking around elsewhere, that I got some seemingly shady commentary thrown my way, by a well respected user on another forum in an attempt to debunk my claim without being too direct about hidden disdain for me.
It hurt a bit, because it was even worse later on, when my 4R source mixed up TX with GX and I trusted that info mistakenly, to be chastised for it over there. As the messenger, I looked foolish.
I simply asked a question to my 4R source and I trusted the mistaken info, yet it was used against me as a negative example of credibility. It sucks, but I understand it in some sense, as the info on the 4R future years ago and this new LC, came from the individual in question. They have an account here...
There are times I want to stop commenting in this sphere, for that reason. If the Toyota/Lexus experts on a given forum are always looking at me with a critical eye, whenever they come across repostings of my commentary, then I'll simply zip it and let them do the talking instead, because I don't care for it. No hard feelings, but the obvious is obvious at times.
The messiah has returned. Good to hear from you again Carmaker1.
I would agree with you Toyota has been quite good about preventing render leaks. Both the Tacoma and Land Cruiser are expected to be announced next year yet we haven't a clue what they will ultimately look like. A large sticking point for me is the rear door design for this upcoming Land Cruiser. Will it be a barn door a la GX/Prado? Will it have rolling window like the 4Runner? Or will it be the return of the split tailgate since the J300 removed it?
Toyota is making a retro interpretation of the Land Cruiser for 2024 and has kept it to vest, like some recent releases such as the 2021 Venza.
A 4Runner this is not.
Interesting that Carmaker1 is still saying the 4Runner will be made in Mexico. This has always made the most sense to me.
My source says it via his scheduling info, but I am skeptical since I haven't seen any announcement from Toyota stating this yet. We are less than 2 years out, yet no commentary on it from Toyota Pressroom nor any Automotive News. Something is off for sure, but I am too polite to question my source's knowledge on his own work.
If they bring a Japan built Prado to the US, I can see it giving them an excuse to do the 4Runner in Mexico next to the Tacoma. But, he could have just been referring to the released date/my as the "element of truth" and not Mexico.
I'm trying to decipher what [MENTION=166416]Carmaker1[/MENTION] means by this one:
"I'm surprised Toyota is already underway with a TNGA-K unibody pickup, but not surprised since it was mentioned earlier. Please don't tell this is just like the Land Cruiser rumor in 2019 and it won't appear for 4 more years just the same. This should be coming for MY 2024-25 for Toyota's sake."
Is that to say you don't have insight into it but hope it would come out by 25my or that you have insight that it WILL come out as a 25my?
If Toyota made a Prime Maverick competitor that took all the best parts of the Ridgeline and the Maverick and combined them, I would put an order in right away.
Comfort of a Ridgeline, plenty of rear seat space for an adult, excellent configurations of the bed, with a the Prime 2.5... sign me up.
The date period being in the 3rd quarter of 2024 has a strong element of truth to it, but the location is suspect to me based on many factors.
As for the truck, they say it's coming and it mirrors past speculation on this Land Cruiser. I'd expect it in that time frame, but not confirmed insight yet.
I deduced in early 2020 that this Land Cruiser was going to debut as a 2024 model, when it did not show up on any internal scheduling for up to January 1, 2023. And at worst, 2025. I wouldn't have known about that vehicle in 2019, if it wasn't far along enough. A 2026-27 model it absolutely wasn't nor was it for 2023 in my belief. It could've been 2023.5, but I still felt otherwise.
Not sure if it's related, but Toyota did release a concept vehicle in Thailand called the IMV-O which is a small modular pickup. The truck looks less like a concept and more like a production vehicle. I wonder if this is a preview of what the US version of the truck could look like. I would believe the small pickup based on the TNGA-K would be a global product.
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Weirdly enough I only discovered this via your post. This makes me uncomfortable, as calling this IMV makes me wonder if IMV will be recycled for the 3rd time on Hilux and Fortuner, instead of migration to TNGA-F? Hilux still uses the same architecture since 2004.
A source for me was working on the Tacoma program and when they initially got to Toyota they heard of 4Runner and Tacoma being talked about together. Whether or not that meant being made at the same factory, I don't know. They said word of the 4Runner kinda died out a bit and assumed it was because the 4Runner was currently being made in Japan - that's what made me start digging a bit more and lead to the AVF sheet discovery with the 4Runner saying Japan for 930D.
Those two things combined, the AVF spreadsheet and 4Runner and Tacoma no longer being talked about together, made me shift hard to saying it's staying in Japan.
However, if AVF is just guessing, and Carmaker1 is still hearing Mexico, there could be some truth to Mexico still? But he's also hinted the Team Quality Services link is outdated info.
To me logistically it'd make sense to make Tacoma and 4Runner at the same factory if they're sharing the same platform and powertrain.
Lastly, not trying to discount what Carmaker1 has been saying at all - just relaying how I came to my thoughts. Carmaker1 has been in the game for a while and has proven time and time again he is credible.
The Tacoma is 920B and 4Runner is 930B, while 930D might apply to GX or something. I have to check my conversations, to confirm that honestly. It was said to me privately, but I don't remember when.
I wasn't referring to you when I called people "armchair experts." I would have included myself in that.
It looks like all my guesses were way off mark! LOL
So are you thinking that Toyota has been secretly developing a new LC the last 3 or 4 years?
Sorry, I didn't get to reply sooner. I knew you weren't referring to me, 100%. You can tell who is an actual detractor and who isn't. I'm very perceptive and vet these things, before taking any offense. Other posts will tell the story, as to why someone makes a comment.
"My 4Runner source says it will definitely be built in TMMGT, starting in July 2024, but I am very confused and I don't want to contradict him nor cast doubt on his information disrespectfully. Tahara could supplement production or maybe this forecast sheet is playing the guessing game."
Hopefully it stays in Tahara but like you said if they bring a Japanese built Prado here that might excuse them moving the 4R to Guanajuato. I believe anyone hardcore enough to not buy a 4runner because it was built in Mexico would most likely fork out another $10,000 or whatever to have a Japanese built LC. So you really don't lose too many customers and the cost savings by building in Mexico should keep the price of the 4R fairly stable.
They have a handle on something, to be estimating a MY 2025 arrival in that date period. Someone told them something, as it matches up with people working on it date wise. However, the factory doesn't. It's odd to me, because I can see that on my end too, but still no announcement from Toyota and capacity concerns at TMMGT, are legitimate.
However, if Toyota is keeping soccer mom Prado, yet dropping the GX version for Defender 110 style ute, room must be made for this US market offroader that sounds like the J76 replacement in conceptualization since the mid-2010s.
J76 replacement was a credible rumor out of Qatar/GCC from a source close to Toyota distributors circa 2015 (U********), that I kept hearing about on/off for years, until a member on here and at Lexus (*****), basically confirmed 3 years ago. It became more concrete when Lexus followed that template with the 2024 GX 550 and the LC300 wasn't introduced here either.
The latter also stated 4Runner doesn't deviate from its mission, which makes sense. The more roadgoing adventurer, who has no use for Sequoia's excess and commutes with it as a family vehicle, gets the 4R.
The Land Cruiser for 2024 is going to be the modern incarnation of the FJ40 and J76 that replaced the former in 1984. Australian media might of misconstrued this back in 2020 with the 300-Series, but now it's all coming to light once again.
I did see that. But TFL has been wrong quite a few times on the 4Runner and Taco updates. So I'm not sure I trust their rumors.
I don't think there are many Americans who care about the LC nameplate. I'm a TLCA member, have owned a bunch of different LCs and still have one, etc. And even I don't care about the nameplate enough to buy one over a 4Runner.
I don't see much value in selling a Prado in the USA side by side with a 4Runner unless it's differentiated in a major way. So if it's not really a Prado - but some new vehicle that is different from a 4Runner/Prado in a big way - then it makes sense. The regular Prado is priced very slightly below the 4Runner in other markets where they are sold together, but they're basically equal.
The only way I can see it working as a more expensive version is if it's bigger, comes with an engine not offered in the 4R, or has something else unusual I'm not thinking of that you can't find on the 4R. I'm not sure what that is or what that means. LC300 running gear would be something compelling. But then isn't it just a LC300 re-skin at that point? But how would that fit as a GX that's the same thing as a LX?
It's possible that it'll be a new product that's neither Prado or 4Runner and is more off-road oriented than the 4Runner. But that just seems pretty odd as well. There's only so much mix and match you can do to fit something between a 110/111" wheel base 4Runner and a 112" wheel base LC300 and not be too close to the LX600 or too close to the 4Runner.
The big hole in the market is for something like a Jimny. Toyota could re-skin a Fortuner with a 4 door removeable top body to slot in below the 4Runner. But that certainly isn't what's being described. The other potentially missing model in the lineup is an HD 4Runner. That's basically just an LC300. Same size, but with more power and more towing/hauling capability. An LC70 with big tires and lower gears would probably fit the 30k sales niche and be more $ than 4R, but that doesn't really sound like a Prado variant.
It'll be interesting to see what shows up if it ever does. Seems like Toyota is going to be so late to the game that the overland fad might be over before they ever get to market.
TFL is a damn headache, but gosh are they somewhat close to it. The Prado renderings show a evolutionary vehicle and not the retro vehicle coming to USA. Nor do they even come close the GX 550, which is "militaristic" in description. The Prado is either Toyota's biggest secret ever or a separate model entirely, essentially a smaller 300-Series, while this vehicle is an indirect replacement for the J76, with a different chassis designation from Prado.
Prado is expected to be 180-Series, but are the next GX and this LC also J180? J170 or J190 is easily possible. Now that's speculation on my end.
The last two pages of this thread have been the most exciting Toyota info I've read in the last decade. I cannot wait to see what Toyota has in store for 4X4 vehicles over the next several years. Things have gotten so stale with the current gen 4Runner and GX on their fourteenth consecutive model year, the Tacoma eight years into gen3 which was largely carryover from gen2, debuting in 2004, and the Land Cruiser disappearing completely after fourteen years of the same bloated J200 platform. I hope Toyota knocks these out of the park as I fear we'll be stuck with them for better or for worse through 2040!
Good to hear, as they sound very inspired to have followed through with those plans of theirs for GA-F. Reminds me of 2010, when Lexus hinted at a future flagship coupe to their dealers, because CALTY was working on the LF-GT/LF-LC project. Didn't show it until late 2011 (2012 reveal).
The real issue is the lack of business case for RWD cars, hence less on that front and more on catching up with overlanding craze.
Something that I have heard recently contrary to the info about the 6th being assembled in Guanajuato is the following:
Toyota stopped Tacoma production in San Antonio so it could focus on Tundra and Sequoia.
Now Guanajuato and Tijuana are assembling Tacomas and are pretty close to max production capacities trying to pump out 250,000 per year.
Any truth to this [MENTION=166416]Carmaker1[/MENTION]?
Does Guanajuato have the capacity to add roughly 100,000+ 4Runners to their production line?
Toyota is expanding capacity of TMMGT, well beyond even the figure of 250,000 by 2025. They're making room for another vehicle...
Note these figures don't include additional capacity at TMMBC, which has built Tacomas since 2005.
Outta the park like the new Tundra...
I'm excited as well about the idea of a new off-road focused SUV. I'm just a bit skeptical because of the hype and letdown with the Tundra and the last time they did an "off road" USA model that was supposed to be a modern FJ 40. Fool me once.
But [MENTION=166416]Carmaker1[/MENTION] has been the most reliable source I know of based on past insights so I'm still excited as well. At least we can dream of something great for a while.
Bear in mind, Akio Toyoda as more junior exec championed development on that concept in 2001-02, just as the H2 was coming to market and on the US end of things, they likely were influenced by the hot market in the bold and bulbous utility vehicle craze.
Jeep in 2002 was designing the JK Wrangler and Toyota I would say, had no idea about the final design of JKU Wrangler in the summer of 2003, as they began converting the FJ into a production feasible proposal. DaimlerChrysler approved the final exterior of the 2007 Wrangler Unlimited, around May 2003.
Toyota had eyes on the new 2003 H2 instead of paying attention to Jeep's big secret weapon and thus you ended up with the FJ Cruiser Concept revealed in 2003. The production FJ design was signed off in early 2004 before production began in 2006. GM had the H3 in development in 2002, but it wasn't a factor to Toyota for some reason. Just the H2 in its sights and nothing like what Jeep was developing. An easy conversion of the 120-Series frame into FJ Cruiser became the key to cost savings and economies of scale.
I believe that the 200-Series basis might have been considered early on, but it was too soon in 2002 to give that any further consideration. 100-Series was vetoed, since it would be almost a decade old at launch and the newest frame in 120 was perfect. Especially since the 4Runner V6 was newly arriving in showrooms, as the FJ Cruiser Concept was revealed in January 2003. The V8 had already appeared solo in October 2002, making the 4G N210 4Runner very expensive at launch and a yuppie cruiser without Country Club pretensions like the GX 470.
If they used the 200-Series frame for the FJ Cruiser, it would've been prohibitively expensive and a near-lux vehicle only, plus come to market some 9-15 months later than idealized. Not to mention, need more than the 1GR...(2UZ anyone?). The 5.7 was never going to offered in an FJ, but would the 4.6UR be considered? That would have been very interesting.
The idea to fully modernize the J76 Land Cruiser, has been brainstormed for almost a decade now. The first I heard them get serious about it, was in 2019. They're almost done now it seems. I'd say GX 550 gets the TTV6, while TLC is a Hybrid Max for some silly reason. I'd say both 4Runner and that are offered as such, when the Venza and RAV4 Prime exist between each other.
Maybe Tacoma still gets a TRD Pro, while 4Runner loses it and takes on the focus of the Limited more, but with some spicy treatments. The difference will have to be split more than before. We saw what happened with the current RAV4 growing more butch, to make room for the Venza. Perhaps the opposite will happen with the 4Runner. Land Cruiser is the hardcore side of the coin, while 4Runner is the more reserved side of Toyota midsize offroading.
It seems silly I imagine, but it's likely. Plus, remember that retro interpretation is ending production this year, right before this new upcoming retro interpretation comes to market...
I share your same concern. However, I am still more optimistic than not because these new 4X4s are being developed for a global market vs the Tundra which is mainly North America, right?
The Land Cruiser sounds more like the redesigned J76 that was being proposed years ago, but never really showed up to market. Toyota might keep the 70-Series and this serves as a successor for it and FJ Cruiser.
I think Toyota sees the opportunity (even if extremely late to the party) to get into the Bronco and Wrangler market with the Land Cruiser. That is where its origins are.
The sacrifice may be losing the 4Runner to the more "soccer mom" market.
Yes, two sides of the same coin. See the Venza and RAV4 Prime. Toyota is also discontinuing the FJ Cruiser, on the eve of this new Land Cruiser. Coincidence? I think not...
Toyota wants to cover so many bases, for the most mysterious reasons to me. Guess it's because with the lack of sedans, they want to be ahead of everyone else on the SUV/crossover front.f
