Best speculation of a 2023 6th generation I have seen

[TexasFunRunner]

That's a good question about filling all niches vs simplifying offerings and production. I am personally a fan of simplicity from both production/business and from a consumer stand point. I wonder whether Toyota really knows the market or whether offering too many models is a sign of HQ bloat and lack of direction.

I would say ditch all Lexus SUVs as well as the Sequoia and leave the 4R and a 300-series LC as the standard-bearers of true offroaders with optional 35s and optional proper shocks for every trim.

Perhaps, I'm just going out on a limb here, maybe Toyota/Lexus want to address SUV markets outside of the "true offroaders"?

Let's say 90% of the market want the higher stance and cargo carrying capacity of an SUV along with the image of being able to go off-road, although you will never see any pinstripes on their SUV's unless they are decals or painted on.

 

[Blackwatch]

I would say we should see the new TRD Pro color soon. Maybe Friday on the Taco reveal. I have thought about buying the '24 4R Pro because you won't see that color on a 5th gen only in the one model year. Hoping for a cool blue like Cavalry.

 

[gomiami]

Good discussion, guys.

I'll go with something yellow for the pro color.

 

[Carmaker1]

I'm going to have to come back, but for basic stuff let me state this.

I'm concerned that my information on MY 2025 is stale. When I mentioned that previously to a trusted and well-meaning informed source, I wasn't corrected as stating anything incorrect with MY 2025. I was thankfully updated weeks later, about the Prado arriving later than originally scheduled from December 2023 to Spring 2024.

Weeks after, Japanese news confirmed the same thing on Prado.

Problem is, my other source who led me to come into this forum in June 2021 and the correct the narrative to being 2024 1/2, is the same person who clued me into July 2024 SOP.

Now that 11 months have passed again, I asked to get an update and I'm concerned over seemingly outdated, conflicting information.

I know right now, the Job 1 dates for MY 2024 show up as 10-1-2023. That simply points to October 2023 SOP, meaning deliveries sometime in December or late November. What I heard seemed puzzlingly off.

Another person gives the annoying suspicion, that a Q3/Q4 2024 launch is not happening. They aren't making it easy to understand the context, by being an *******. If the project is that behind, Toyota deserves...SMH.

Since 2019, it has been already delayed 3 times. Yes, THREE! Not including the failure to redesign it by 2017 and the possible delay to 2026MY.

Through the grapevine, two people first saw this vehicle on U.S. soil in March 2021 and another date I cannot recall, in early 2021. Not a mule, a PROTOTYPE. The design developed for it, was in progress in the second half of 2019. It was due for approval the last time I heard it in January 2020, in Q1 of 2020 in anticipation of Q4 2022 launch to market.

In June 2021, I learned it had been delayed to early 2024. Then another 6 months. When you have that many delays, you are required to fix the design and keep it fresh.

If the nightmare MY 2026 is true, I don't find it acceptable to sit on a design for 5 years in production spec and think you can sell it for another 7-8 years, without it being dated.

The current generation was finalized in 2007 and arrived on November 23/24, 2009 as a 2010 model. 2014 refresh was finalized in late 2011-early 2012, before hitting showrooms in Sep/Oct 2013. Gen 4 was finalized in 2000, before going on sale October 10, 2002 (V8) and in January 2003 (V6).

A 5 year old final design proposal at market launch would be verboten, per industry standards. No Toyota has ever had that issue to my knowledge nor much of the industry in general.

Anyway, saw this from CarBuzz, it's not likely to be it, but it's executed better than most I've seen. (Well, 1 source says this is it, just needs to some more tinkering in soft vs harder & angular edges.)


2024 GX will debut June 8, 2023 at 8PM ET Get ready for Thursday night for the Tacoma!

 

[Jetboy]

Any insight into what is causing so many delays? TBH it doesn't seem like the new model is radically different from the current one. I think it's fair to predict all the basic architecture is the same. Ie. some version of the same multilink rear suspension that has been used for 40 years. Some version of the same front double wishbone IFS. Same basic design of axles, probably still using the VFXX transfer case, and the direct shift 10 speed that's been around for a long time. Even the T24A is mostly an update on the 8AR. It's not a pure parts-bin vehicle, but it's also not some radical re-imagining of the entire concept. Covid can explain a year or two. But I'm not sure it explains 4 or 5 years delay.

My random guess is that the hybrid system hasn't worked as well in the real world as it did on paper and the turbo engines are turning out to not be very fuel efficient in the real world. The combination resulting in inadequate power/efficiency and a hole in the engine lineup for something with 300-325hp that is the sweet spot for midsize BOF suvs and trucks. I can't really think of much else that wouldn't be pretty easily fixable at Toyota.

 

[TexasFunRunner]

Any insight into what is causing so many delays?

My random guess is that the hybrid system hasn't worked as well in the real world as it did on paper and the turbo engines are turning out to not be very fuel efficient in the real world.

I can't really think of much else that wouldn't be pretty easily fixable at Toyota.

If the delay turns out to be real, I think your idea of the hybrid or turbo engine being contributors could be part of the reason.

Other ideas that could be contributing to the delay:

1. Budget pressures starving certain model developments.
2. Shared development personnel across models could cause delays to the models that are not on the front burner.
3. To many people working from home when the prototypes, hardware and factory are at work.
4. Perhaps, with the GX and Land Cruiser coming out first, they want to milk the old model 4Runner to continue the cash cow sales.
5. Likewise, with the GX and Land Cruiser coming out first, maybe they want more time until the 4Runner releases so the GX and Land Cruiser gain a foothold in sales.

In other words, if the Land Cruiser and 6th gen 4Runner come out to close together, maybe they are trying to keep one or the other from loosing out on sales and thereby avoiding FJ Cruiser syndrome.

 

[gomiami]

Any insight into what is causing so many delays? TBH it doesn't seem like the new model is radically different from the current one. I think it's fair to predict all the basic architecture is the same. Ie. some version of the same multilink rear suspension that has been used for 40 years. Some version of the same front double wishbone IFS. Same basic design of axles, probably still using the VFXX transfer case, and the direct shift 10 speed that's been around for a long time. Even the T24A is mostly an update on the 8AR. It's not a pure parts-bin vehicle, but it's also not some radical re-imagining of the entire concept. Covid can explain a year or two. But I'm not sure it explains 4 or 5 years delay.

My random guess is that the hybrid system hasn't worked as well in the real world as it did on paper and the turbo engines are turning out to not be very fuel efficient in the real world. The combination resulting in inadequate power/efficiency and a hole in the engine lineup for something with 300-325hp that is the sweet spot for midsize BOF suvs and trucks. I can't really think of much else that wouldn't be pretty easily fixable at Toyota.

My guess is that Toyota doesn't want to do what the industry is forcing them to do. Toyota essentially has no choice but to ditch the ICE and replace it with a turbo/hybrid/electric clown car.

So, they delay, delay, delay in an effort to keep selling the current version that's a proven profit winner some 14 years into its life cycle. It's a dinosaur, it's an oddball, and it's increasingly not like anything else on the market...which is exactly why it still sells. As soon as the 6th gen comes out, the 4Runner becomes just another hybrid midsize SUV in a market saturated with hybrid midsize SUVs.

 

[Blackwatch]

I was thankfully updated weeks later, about the Prado arriving later than originally scheduled from December 2023 to Spring 2024.
2024 GX will debut June 8, 2023 at 8PM ET Get ready for Thursday night for the Tacoma!

If the LC is arriving at dealerships in the spring of 2024 how likely is a 2025 6th gen 4Runner arriving in the same year (fall 2024)?
Nov 2023 - Lexus GX 550 and new Tacoma
May 2024 - LC Prado in North America
Nov 2024 - 6th gen 4Runner

Seems like 3 very similar vehicles being released within 12 months would be odd for Toyota's sloth like new model release history.

I could see 2024 GX550 arriving in Nov 2023, 2025 LC Prado - Nov 2024 and 2026 6th gen 4Runner - Nov 2025.

 

[Colorado buff]

Thanks carmaker. That is a great rendering

 

[Pedro367]

My guess is that Toyota doesn't want to do what the industry is forcing them to do. Toyota essentially has no choice but to ditch the ICE and replace it with a turbo/hybrid/electric clown car.

So, they delay, delay, delay in an effort to keep selling the current version that's a proven profit winner some 14 years into its life cycle. It's a dinosaur, it's an oddball, and it's increasingly not like anything else on the market...which is exactly why it still sells. As soon as the 6th gen comes out, the 4Runner becomes just another hybrid midsize SUV in a market saturated with hybrid midsize SUVs.

You make some good points here. Keeping a proven seller as is drops it to the bottom of importance for a redesign. Continue to make bank and keep selling them all. However, it's debatable that it will become just another SUV once it's hybridized. If it comes out as a unibody with independent suspension like the Highlander or Kia Sorrento then sure, but I think we all have more faith in Toyota to do that. Especially with the way the "cool offroad" truck and SUV market is taking off with everything getting offroad packages now because everyone went hiking once during covid. Bronco, Wrangler, etc. still are selling like crazy. The 4R is Toyotas offroad SUV to compete with those and should continue to be, regardless of a hybrid powertrain. Hybrid isn't the end of the road by any means and shouldn't be something to be scared of at this point, IMO. Jeep already has the 4Xe and I'm sure Ford is not far behind on the Bronco. As you said, It's inevitable and Toyota can't wait another 15+ years to do it on the 7th gen.

 

[Slow Joe]

Good to see you on here, Carmaker. I see you on C/D's website from time to time. I'll definitely be following you for more T4R 6th gen info.

 

[Jetboy]

Here's why I don't think the EV/emissions justification fits.

First, the redesign should have been released in MY2018. So we're now at least 6 years past due. And the same emissions rules still apply whether it's a 2010 model or a 2018 model. Sticking with an old model doesn't mean its grandfathered in. Toyota could have updated the powertrain at anytime and made it more efficient AND better to drive. The transmission is the most glaring failure. It's already a damn 6 speed that doesn't shift into all 6 gears. Using all 6 gears with 4:10 or 4:30 diffs would improve mpg and make it a better real world driving vehicle for nearly zero cost. The only reason Toyota wouldn't do it is because it would then make it quicker 0-60 than the GX. I can't think of any other valid justification. And if Toyota actually put in any effort at all - it would have updated to the 8 speed. Both the GX and 4Runner would benefit significantly from the 8 speed both in driving experience and in MPG.

Second, Ford has no problem selling a new Ranger with no electric options including a 405HP Raptor model. Ford also sells a Bronco with 420hp on 37s that only gets 15mpg combined. If Ford can sell it - why can't Toyota?

Third, even if Toyota wanted to lean hard into the hybrids, which I generally am in favor of, they are doing a piss poor job with the Iforce Max system. In part due to the use of NiMH batteries that are huge and then putting them inside the cabin area vs fit in the frame. For a hybrid to have much value in trucks and SUVs, they need to have more battery capacity. 0-60 isn't very important, so a short burst of power doesn't help much. And stop and go city driving isn't the same target for fuel economy that it is with a city car. It needs to help smooth out high demand periods that are longer. Ie accelerating trailers, towing up hills, and recapturing energy down hills. That requires more battery capacity.

I think it's plausible if not likely that Toyota is struggling to squeeze adequate performance out of its new hybrid system and can't figure it out because the constraints it chose (batter chemistry and design) are not adequate. It's not something that can be calibrated away when the root cause is the hardware being insufficient for the job.

 

[gomiami]

You make some good points here. Keeping a proven seller as is drops it to the bottom of importance for a redesign. Continue to make bank and keep selling them all. However, it's debatable that it will become just another SUV once it's hybridized. If it comes out as a unibody with independent suspension like the Highlander or Kia Sorrento then sure, but I think we all have more faith in Toyota to do that. Especially with the way the "cool offroad" truck and SUV market is taking off with everything getting offroad packages now because everyone went hiking once during covid. Bronco, Wrangler, etc. still are selling like crazy. The 4R is Toyotas offroad SUV to compete with those and should continue to be, regardless of a hybrid powertrain. Hybrid isn't the end of the road by any means and shouldn't be something to be scared of at this point, IMO. Jeep already has the 4Xe and I'm sure Ford is not far behind on the Bronco. As you said, It's inevitable and Toyota can't wait another 15+ years to do it on the 7th gen.

Thank you.

To add to your comment, I am not afraid of hybrid technology, I just don't want to own one. They are expensive and much more complex to repair for the DIYer. There is also no evidence that a hybrid will make for a long-lasting off-road vehicle. The Bronco and 4Xe are new. How many will make it to 250K or beyond with the original engine/transmission setup? We won't know for almost a decade.

I can almost guarantee you the 5th gen I will be buying will make it to 250K, will be maintained by me and will cost 6-10% less (purchase price) than the 6th gen with its fancy tech that will be for sale sometime in late 2024/early 2025.

 

[Pedro367]

Thank you.

To add to your comment, I am not afraid of hybrid technology, I just don't want to own one. They are expensive and much more complex to repair for the DIYer. There is also no evidence that a hybrid will make for a long-lasting off-road vehicle. The Bronco and 4Xe are new. How many will make it to 250K or beyond with the original engine/transmission setup? We won't know for almost a decade.

I can almost guarantee you the 5th gen I will be buying will make it to 250K, will be maintained by me and will cost 6-10% less (purchase price) than the 6th gen with its fancy tech that will be for sale sometime in late 2024/early 2025.

Yea, if long term play is your game, than there isn't much out there for you anymore anyway, regardless of hybrid tech.

 

[Blackwatch]

Thank you.

To add to your comment, I am not afraid of hybrid technology, I just don't want to own one. They are expensive and much more complex to repair for the DIYer. There is also no evidence that a hybrid will make for a long-lasting off-road vehicle. The Bronco and 4Xe are new. How many will make it to 250K or beyond with the original engine/transmission setup? We won't know for almost a decade.

I can almost guarantee you the 5th gen I will be buying will make it to 250K, will be maintained by me and will cost 6-10% less (purchase price) than the 6th gen with its fancy tech that will be for sale sometime in late 2024/early 2025.

I am torn between trusting the next gen tech vs the tried and true NA engines. If I keep a 4Runner 20 years and save $25,000 over those 20 years on fuel an extra $15,000 at the onset seems like a fair investment. But will I need to replace a $7000 power cord due to corrosion? The Rav4 hybrid has had a problem with the power connector to the rear motor corroding in winter/salt conditions.
Will I have to replace a $10,000 battery after 12 years? Not to mention the engine and turbo failures in the new Tundra.
I will probably buy a 2024 4R off-road or Pro to hedge my bets and play it safe. I would love to have a new 70 series LC so the 5th gen is the next best thing these days.

 

[thatoneguy]

Thank you.

To add to your comment, I am not afraid of hybrid technology, I just don't want to own one. They are expensive and much more complex to repair for the DIYer. There is also no evidence that a hybrid will make for a long-lasting off-road vehicle. The Bronco and 4Xe are new. How many will make it to 250K or beyond with the original engine/transmission setup? We won't know for almost a decade.

I can almost guarantee you the 5th gen I will be buying will make it to 250K, will be maintained by me and will cost 6-10% less (purchase price) than the 6th gen with its fancy tech that will be for sale sometime in late 2024/early 2025.

Maybe, I wouldn't be so quick to be sure.

The 5th gen is pretty expensive for Toyota to build and ship to the United States. It probably gets hit with the chicken tax for being a truck built outside of North America. Production on Japanese soil at a Lexus-grade facility can't be cheap, in addition to trans-pacific transport costs. Also, the 4Runner results in some pretty stiff CAFE penalty fees that Toyota pays and passes on to the consumer due to the dismal EPA mpg ratings the 2005 powertrain returns on the ever-toughening EPA cycles (it appears that the 2023 4Runner is EPA rated worse on fuel economy than any half ton truck on sale today.)

Sure, the tooling and R&D are paid off, but the other costs are real, not to mention that the 4Runner at this point shares next to nothing with other Toyota products.

The next-gen 4Runner will definitely have far more part-sharing with other current Toyota products (and be on the same scalable architecture). If they relocate production to North America, that will save them a ton of money. It will definitely do much better on fuel, and get hit with far less EPA CAFE penalties. Not sure how much "fancy tech" will add to the price (especially if it's shared among many models), but a big 4.0L aluminum V6 that is shared with next to nothing else in their portfolio these days can't be good for Toyota economics.

I think the outgoing 4Runner is getting ever more expensive for Toyota to produce. MSRP just went up $600 this month. MSRP went up $750 in January. MSRP went up like $1,000 for model year 2023. That's well over two grand of increases in eight months with nothing but a new heated steering wheel and cross traffic alert to show for it.

Who knows, it might end up 10% cheaper for Toyota to produce, but inflation over the next year or two may chip away at those savings. With the next gen GX getting teased, I'm wondering how far away the next 4Runner really is. It would be nice if the new 4Runner isn't several thousand dollars more expensive than a comparable crew cab Tacoma like it currently is--we'll see.

 

[TexasFunRunner]

Interesting article from Toyota corporate to Toyota dealers explaining why they should expect to see more hybrids on their lots and not so many EVs or PHEVs.

Here's Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric Vehicle

 

[Carmaker1]

Ugh, keep failing to get back in here soon enough and losing free time (going to work right now). It just seems like I'm talking at discussion in here, versus responding and addressing some real concerns.

While I do feel the concerns about proposals going back years are correct, MY 2026 concerns might be too soon from bad faith folks. We'll see.

BTW, I feel CarBuzz has cracked something possibly according to the 4Runner dude. Maybe I'll leave another member to answer that question for you, because I'm walking a fine line mentioning that in full.

I'm gonna edit my last post when I can for clarity, because it's pretty clear to me that predictive text and voice-to-text made it borderline incoherent.

 

[TexasFunRunner]

BTW, I feel CarBuzz has cracked something possibly according to the 4Runner dude. Maybe I'll leave another member to answer that question for you, because I'm walking a fine line mentioning that in full.

From my sources, I hear the CarBuzz rendering is close but a little too rounded, in other words, it may have more distinct angles, such as we see on the GX teaser photos.

2024 Toyota 4Runner: What We Know So Far | CarBuzz

but more like the GX angles...

COMING SOON: THE ALL-NEW 2024 LEXUS GX - Lexus USA Newsroom

 

[mscot]

But will I need to replace a $7000 power cord due to corrosion? The Rav4 hybrid has had a problem with the power connector to the rear motor corroding in winter/salt conditions.

Can you link me to a source on this? We have a Rav4, live in Colorado, and I haven't seen anything about it.