Best speculation of a 2023 6th generation I have seen

Jetboy said:

It sure feels like something has to give in the car market and rapid inflation on prices. I'm not sure what that looks like or when. But the pricing is going up so fast that I struggle to see this continuing for much longer. Especially at the same time I see the Model Y dropping price to start overlapping a Rav4. Things are getting a bit distorted. It's got to be pushing people out of the market. It's enough to keep me from buying a new Tundra. We may end up buying a Model Y to replace our RX350. The insurance issue is one of the big hurdles to me pulling the trigger. The insurance premium over the RX is more than the fuel cost savings would be. The home charging part is really compelling now that I have to commute to work regularly. I'd rather have a new GX550 or possibly a new Land Cruiser, but I don't think I'll be willing to spend $80K+ on the GX or $75k on the Land Cruiser.

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I imagine as baseline inflation slows (hopefully) we'll start to see car prices year over year increase less than they have the last 4 model years or so. I really do think the other factor will be the ability to get more and more vehicles below MSRP, conceivably with some factory incentives on vehicles. It seems like subsidized interest rates are coming back in some cases also, at least for 36 or 48 month loans. This will likely freeze or actually lead to a slight drop in average transaction price (but regardless, it's hard to picture that getting below about $45K ever again).

The other interesting factors in this whole mess is that automotive manufacturers clearly got used to being able to derive more profit per unit moved since 2021 or so. At some point if sales start to slow way down, it'll be interesting to see if a focus on volume comes back (which you could already argue a company like Tesla is going after at this point). The second thing is the role of interest rates. Everyone is used to effectively free money with very low costs to borrow. Part of me is almost hoping the economy starts to tank in the next 6 to 9 months since I really am not looking forward to a 7 or 8 percent car loan at best. I don't think I've had a loan rate over 4.9% APR in my life on a vehicle.

AZ Craig said:

I imagine as baseline inflation slows (hopefully) we'll start to see car prices year over year increase less than they have the last 4 model years or so. I really do think the other factor will be the ability to get more and more vehicles below MSRP, conceivably with some factory incentives on vehicles. It seems like subsidized interest rates are coming back in some cases also, at least for 36 or 48 month loans. This will likely freeze or actually lead to a slight drop in average transaction price (but regardless, it's hard to picture that getting below about $45K ever again).

The other interesting factors in this whole mess is that automotive manufacturers clearly got used to being able to derive more profit per unit moved since 2021 or so. At some point if sales start to slow way down, it'll be interesting to see if a focus on volume comes back (which you could already argue a company like Tesla is going after at this point). The second thing is the role of interest rates. Everyone is used to effectively free money with very low costs to borrow. Part of me is almost hoping the economy starts to tank in the next 6 to 9 months since I really am not looking forward to a 7 or 8 percent car loan at best. I don't think I've had a loan rate over 4.9% APR in my life on a vehicle.

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I see a few cracks starting. Domestics are all getting really heavy on inventory. I saw Jeep Renegade has 750 days worth of inventory right now. Might get real cheap soon! Ram trucks are north of 100 days of inventory. Ford is getting there. GM is idling plants. But not Toyota. Toyota company wide is still under 30 days of inventory. Toyota, Kia, Lexus, and Honda are all still super tight on inventory.

I'm liking what I see with the fold flat seats. Now it is apples to oranges as the 4Runner will be body on frame with a solid axle and is also physically smaller than the Grand Highlander but at least in this application Toyota was able to package the batteries in a way that did not compromise interior volume.

Jetboy said:

I see a few cracks starting. Domestics are all getting really heavy on inventory. I saw Jeep Renegade has 750 days worth of inventory right now. Might get real cheap soon! Ram trucks are north of 100 days of inventory. Ford is getting there. GM is idling plants. But not Toyota. Toyota company wide is still under 30 days of inventory. Toyota, Kia, Lexus, and Honda are all still super tight on inventory.

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Yeah, it seems like the Japanese and Koreans got hit particularly hard by the semiconductor shortages and overall supply chain chaos. When you consider they have a lot of very in demand vehicle designs, it's definitely taking awhile for them to catch back up.

KimchiJae said:

I'm liking what I see with the fold flat seats. Now it is apples to oranges as the 4Runner will be body on frame with a solid axle and is also physically smaller than the Grand Highlander but at least in this application Toyota was able to package the batteries in a way that did not compromise interior volume.

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It sounded like the solid axle on the Sequoia was what caused the packaging nightmare there though. Grand Highlander as a unibody likely fixed that issue.

We'll get another couple of data points on June 8 with the GX and TX reveals (albeit; I'm pretty sure TX is going to be damn similar to a Grand Highlander with a really ugly grill) .

AZ Craig said:

The other interesting factors in this whole mess is that every company that sells us anything clearly got used to being able to derive more profit per unit moved since 2021 or so.

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Fixed it for you. Until we stop buying it they are going to milk us all for what they can. Cars or any other manufactured items is one thing, but also look at food. At least where I am everything in the food store is 3X what is was only a couple years ago. I understand there are various reasons to raise prices, labor rates being a huge one, but it doesn't add up.

Carmaker1 said:

Well, we've known these vehicles were coming for 2 years. It was just a matter of them finally debuting when viable for the company to present them. A lot things were bunched up together, due to delays and timetables set long ago now clashing. This is why the 4Runner became a 2025 model, to make space for other Tahara launches.

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[MENTION=166416]Carmaker1[/MENTION], who has been a trusted source of Toyota & Lexus information, did several extensive posts over on Tacoma World about the 4Runner, Land Cruiser and Lexus GX as a wrap-up to the Tacoma reveal. I've summarized key pieces of his posts below so we could get a better look at where we are as we await the new TNGA-F Platform SUVs, the 4Runner, Land Cruiser and Lexus GX.


If you are looking forward to the new 4Runner or Land Cruiser please join the conversation. With that said, here is a summary of the upcoming models we have been discussing over the last year, in order of release.

2024 Lexus GX 550 (Defender Rival, G-Wagen aspirant)
Revealed: June 8th
Launch: Qtr 1 2024
Engines: TTV6 GX 550 or 2.4T Hybrid GX 550h
Press release & specs

2024 Toyota Land Cruiser (GX & Retro FJ influenced, for USA & Canada, Bronco, Jeep, Defender Rival)
Reveal: Fall 2023 (expect a 6-8 week teaser campaign ahead of the date)
Launch: Spring 2024
Engines: Alleged TTV6 or i-Force MAX 2.4T
Closest Renderings: BestCarWeb of Japan, is getting closer but still lacking the retro 40 or 70 series influences.
The Motor Trend rendering is said to give some clues but a) needs to be boxier like the GX. b) have less 4Runner cues. c) have more influence from the FJ40 & FJ70 styling, including round headlights.
"The Legend Returns" Confirmed by Toyota 6-13-2023

2025 Toyota 6th gen 4Runner (Tacoma influenced)
Reveal: Winter/Spring 2024 (expect a 6-8 week teaser campaign ahead of the date)
Launch: Summer/Fall 2024
Engines: 2.4L turbo I-4, i-Force MAX 2.4L turbo I-4 hybrid, alleged PHEV, No TTV6
Closest Rendering: CarBuzz, insiders say the CarBuzz rendering is the closest so far but a) needs to be more angular, like the new Tacoma. b) The Tacoma headlight design is extremely similar, but 4Runner has a different curvature than the Tacoma units. c) The C-Pillar is more upright for better ease of entry and a slopped D-Pillar.
AutoEvolution published a new rendering that is interesting, blending in more of the Tacoma styling and getting some of the above mention items closer but one thing to note they are taking some design cues from the Tundra grill, with its vertical sides, where the Tacoma grill sides slants inwards.

DISCLAIMER: Dates and information gathered from trusted knowledgeable sources and is believed to be accurate at time of posting. However, all dates and information are subject to change as additional information is uncovered.

Pedro367 said:

Fixed it for you. Until we stop buying it they are going to milk us all for what they can. Cars or any other manufactured items is one thing, but also look at food. At least where I am everything in the food store is 3X what is was only a couple years ago. I understand there are various reasons to raise prices, labor rates being a huge one, but it doesn't add up.

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I think the powers that be, those who shape the markets are convinced we are at a tipping point with man made climate change and a lot of what we have experienced the last 3 years has been by design to lower our carbon footprint and change our way of life.

That can be a huge rabbit hole but as it pertains to the car industry I believe the cost to own (including supply) and operate a vehicle is being pushed higher to get us off the highways. In Costa Rica the cost to buy and operate a vehicle is extremely high. A new SR5 4Runner is $72,000 US and the yearly registration would be about $2500 plus safety/environment inspection and insurance. Used cars are very expensive and there are incentives for electric/hybrid vehicles. I would not be surprised if that is where we are heading in North America.

In my province the federal govt is bringing in a carbon tax on gas which equates to 40 cents per gallon. In the next 7 years they will add another $1.50 per gallon+ to get us out of gas cars. A plug in Prius gets an $8000 rebate from the govt.

Sorry for the diversion but I think our love of BOF vehicles is going to get even more expensive as we are pushed towards EVs and public transit.

Blackwatch said:

I think the powers that be, those who shape the markets are convinced we are at a tipping point with man made climate change and a lot of what we have experienced the last 3 years has been by design to lower our carbon footprint and change our way of life.

That can be a huge rabbit hole but as it pertains to the car industry I believe the cost to own (including supply) and operate a vehicle is being pushed higher to get us off the highways. In Costa Rica the cost to buy and operate a vehicle is extremely high. A new SR5 4Runner is $72,000 US and the yearly registration would be about $2500 plus safety/environment inspection and insurance. Used cars are very expensive and there are incentives for electric/hybrid vehicles. I would not be surprised if that is where we are heading in North America.

In my province the federal govt is bringing in a carbon tax on gas which equates to 40 cents per gallon. In the next 7 years they will add another $1.50 per gallon+ to get us out of gas cars. A plug in Prius gets an $8000 rebate from the govt.

Sorry for the diversion but I think our love of BOF vehicles is going to get even more expensive as we are pushed towards EVs and public transit.

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I definitely tend to agree with your overall take on this. Energy policy in the United States has descended into lunacy in many ways when you consider the country is already functionally bankrupt many times over. Even our push towards renewable energy while driving up the price of everything with a systemic attack on coal and now even natural gas fired power plants demonstrates this. I'm really very interested to see how progress towards all of these metrics like pushing nearly all vehicles to EV by 2035 goes the next decade. I still am skeptical if the battery manufacturing and raw material sourcing is going to have any prayer in hell of catching up.

The IRA is interesting in the US though as it kind of disincentivized purchasing EVs UNLESS they meet all the manufacturing requirements (which few other than some from US manufacturers currently do). I have to admit that I really like some of the Hyundai/Kia EV products, but am very hesitant to touch one without the $7500 tax credit (and leasing has its own set of problems).

Agree about body on frame perhaps being a dying breed. I do think the Rivian R1T/R1S demonstrate a future for EV trucks/SUVs and am curious to see what VW does with Scout. It's going to be a fascinating 5 years or so in the vehicle industry as a whole.

AZ Craig said:

I do think the Rivian R1T/R1S demonstrate a future for EV trucks/SUVs and am curious to see what VW does with Scout. It's going to be a fascinating 5 years or so in the vehicle industry as a whole.

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It just got more interesting over at VW's Scout Motors, they just poached a key design executive, Chris Benjamin, from Jeep to head things up.

Scout's New Head Of Design Brings Jeep Background To Brand Reboot

Scout has publicly promised to release two products, an off-road–focused SUV priced in the $40,000 range launching in 2026 and a larger truck launching soon after with a slightly higher sticker. The company has revealed a few teaser silhouettes and has even done early reveals to dedicated fans of the brand, folks still holding on to their Scouts after all these years.

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Benjamin also wants these vehicles to be less fundamentally compromised than the Wrangler or the Bronco: "We will create something that is both capable and is super-comfortable when you're going about your daily business."

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Blackwatch said:

I think the powers that be, those who shape the markets are convinced we are at a tipping point with man made climate change and a lot of what we have experienced the last 3 years has been by design to lower our carbon footprint and change our way of life.

That can be a huge rabbit hole but as it pertains to the car industry I believe the cost to own (including supply) and operate a vehicle is being pushed higher to get us off the highways. In Costa Rica the cost to buy and operate a vehicle is extremely high. A new SR5 4Runner is $72,000 US and the yearly registration would be about $2500 plus safety/environment inspection and insurance. Used cars are very expensive and there are incentives for electric/hybrid vehicles. I would not be surprised if that is where we are heading in North America.

In my province the federal govt is bringing in a carbon tax on gas which equates to 40 cents per gallon. In the next 7 years they will add another $1.50 per gallon+ to get us out of gas cars. A plug in Prius gets an $8000 rebate from the govt.

Sorry for the diversion but I think our love of BOF vehicles is going to get even more expensive as we are pushed towards EVs and public transit.

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No, Sir. The powers that be are convinced that this is the time to establish unlimited power and profit.

They don't believe in climate change for a single minute. It is simply their causus belli on the current global economic system.

AZ Craig said:

It sounded like the solid axle on the Sequoia was what caused the packaging nightmare there though. Grand Highlander as a unibody likely fixed that issue.

We'll get another couple of data points on June 8 with the GX and TX reveals (albeit; I'm pretty sure TX is going to be damn similar to a Grand Highlander with a really ugly grill) .

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Yes for sure the Sequoia's switch back to the solid axle compromised rear packaging.

I can't find a more reputable source but some Redditors have said the Grand Highlander stores its batteries under the 2nd row, unlike the Sequoia which is under the 3rd row.

I'm not sure the engineering reason why the Sequoia could not package its batteries under the second row but here's to hoping the 4Runner can.

KimchiJae said:

Yes for sure the Sequoia's switch back to the solid axle compromised rear packaging.

I can't find a more reputable source but some Redditors have said the Grand Highlander stores its batteries under the 2nd row, unlike the Sequoia which is under the 3rd row.

I'm not sure the engineering reason why the Sequoia could not package its batteries under the second row but here's to hoping the 4Runner can.

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I think everyone would be in agreement on this one. The Sequoia battery placement seems to be universally panned.

I'm guessing that caught Toyota somewhat by surprise but they are learning from their mistake and not repeating it in the Grand Highlander and I would hope future redesigns (like the 4R) would also avoid this hated feature.

just read this today. dunno if it was posted here already:

https://www.drive.com.au/news/2024-toyota-landcruiser-prado-to-debut-later-this-year/

HiluxSurf SSR-G said:

just read this today. dunno if it was posted here already:

https://www.drive.com.au/news/2024-toyota-landcruiser-prado-to-debut-later-this-year/

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This seems consistent with other sources. I can see the old 2.7 being used in this in Africa and the Middle East as the LC 300 is using the 4.0 V6 in those parts of the world. I can see them offering the GR Sport looking version with the 3.44 tt to satisfy those who want a LC300 in North America.

Hopefully the LC250 "retro" style has a bare bones trim and the engine is reliable. I'd be happy with a 70 series looking LC with the 4.0 and 8 speed. Just a bit odd to be putting a 2.4 turbo hybrid in a vehicle they are trying to make appeal to old school fans.

I'm playing around with building a Tacoma on toyota.com and the site doesn't give the better engine as an option. Odd.

mscot said:

I'm playing around with building a Tacoma on toyota.com and the site doesn't give the better engine as an option. Odd.

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Maybe it's a late availability item so the will not allow a build with it until the supply is ready.

Or, for production simplicity and speed they want to start all builds with the same engine.

Or, it's a website bug.

mscot said:

I'm playing around with building a Tacoma on toyota.com and the site doesn't give the better engine as an option. Odd.

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Where are you able to build the new Tacoma? I didn't know the Build Configurator was already up?

KimchiJae said:

Where are you able to build the new Tacoma? I didn't know the Build Configurator was already up?

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All I could find was the 2023 builder at this point; nothing on the 2024 page (which is still listed under upcoming vehicles).

Interestingly they put the Grand Highlander builder up already. Colors and interiors look kind of boring (unfortunately to be expected). Curious to see how the TX stacks up.

Doh! You guys are right. I did this before my morning coffee whilst on a very boring conference call and was only half paying attention.