5th Gen sales up 54.7% over 4th Gen

[LongBallLarry]

Oh, and don't forget that the 4Runner now has fewer direct competitors than it ever had in the past. Things like a true ladder frame and live rear axle used to be much more common than they are today, so a lot people who need/want that have very limited choices today.

Fewer competitors, sure. But what is the total market size now? I think you accidentally left that out of your analysis.

 

[RonMAIDEN]

Last year sales of the 3rd gens were at 77k units compared with less than 20k of the last 4th gens so obviously the market and much more competition in the SUV segment made some differences so it's hard not to ignore the changes in the last 8 years and the increase from the '09 sales to the '10 model is the biggest jump percentage wise of any year or generation of 4Runners. This is all good for Toyota and 4Runners since there was speculation there wasn't even going to be a 5th gen.

I'm sure Toyota execs are quite satisfied with 4Runner sales.

 

[Jed]

Fewer competitors, sure. But what is the total market size now? I think you accidentally left that out of your analysis.

I didn't leave it out....I just have no way of knowing. Do you know the market size? Do you have a way of accessing overall marketing data?

 

[SeattleMike]

I thought it was common knowledge that sales numbers tend to decline as the generation ages. The last year of any generation is usually the poorest selling of any year.

This isn't rocket science!

Go look at the 2003 (1st year of 4th gen) versus the 2002 (last year of the 3rd gen) and compare those numbers :hello:

You are a broken record.

So I decided to look up the 2002 4Runner sales versus the 2003 4Runner (first year of the 4th gen) and guess what? Sales were up 42%, and that's for the full model year, not a one-month number. Again, proves nothing except new styles sell better initially. And they should, right? Or why even bother making a new body style in the first place?

The first year of the 3rd gen (1996), sales were up 31% over the last year of the 2nd gen. Just figured I'd throw that in there as a FYI.

So 42% for the 4th Gen versus 31% for the second versus 138% for the 5th. Even using your own argument, the 5th Gen is doing better than any other new model.

Unless Toyota finds a way to sell another 75,000 4Runners in the next month or so, I'd say the first year of the 5th gen will only sell about 25% as well as the first year of the 4th gen. That speaks volumes to me, no matter how different things were seven years ago. It's still a massive drop in units and I wonder how happy Toyota is with their overall sales volume for the 4Runner. I think things may improve a little bit when the FJ is dropped and the choices are further limited.

Yes, and an orange might look like an apple... if it wasn't orange. Toyota can't sell more than they have made.

You claim that demand is down versus the 4th Gen. Fair enough. The numbers don't lie. I'm going to argue that after 7 years of steadily falling sales, the executives at Toyota realized that the reason wasn't mileage or ride comfort or cramped interiors or luxo-creep. Simply put, it was so ugly that no one wanted to be seen in one anymore. Remember, numbers don't lie... more people want this version than the ugly 4th Gen.

 

[LongBallLarry]

I didn't leave it out....I just have no way of knowing. Do you know the market size? Do you have a way of accessing overall marketing data?

Actually, you did just that — you left it out. There are less competitors because the market demand has significantly decreased. Very convenient for your biased argument to not take that into consideration.

 

[Jed]

You are a broken record.

I was thinking the same thing about you.

So 42% for the 4th Gen versus 31% for the second versus 138% for the 5th. Even using your own argument, the 5th Gen is doing better than any other new model.

Um, no. No, it's not. You obviously don't understand my argument. I'll say it again....2009 was an anomoly. Throw it out because it doesn't even factor into any analysis. If you don't believe me, then show me similar numbers from 2008 to 2009 in any generation of the 4Runner.

You claim that demand is down versus the 4th Gen. Fair enough. The numbers don't lie. I'm going to argue that after 7 years of steadily falling sales, the executives at Toyota realized that the reason wasn't mileage or ride comfort or cramped interiors or luxo-creep. Simply put, it was so ugly that no one wanted to be seen in one anymore. Remember, numbers don't lie... more people want this version than the ugly 4th Gen.

More people want the 5th gen than the 4th gen? Using your warped logic that might be true, but in reality the 5th gen will NEVER match the numbers of the 4th gen. Think about it--for the 1st model year, the 5th gen is way behind the first model year of the 4th gen. Trust me, the 2011 model year will yield similar results. By the end of the 5th gen's run, it will not have sold anywhere near the units of the 4th gen.

You can leave your "ugly" comments to someone that cares....numbers are numbers and they don't lie. The 5th gen isn't exactly off to a stellar start.

 

[Jed]

Actually, you did just that — you left it out. There are less competitors because the market demand has significantly decreased. Very convenient for your biased argument to not take that into consideration.

Again, I didn't leave anything out. I simply don't have access to that information. If you do, please share. And I'm not talking about speculation. Show me the numbers if you have them. Otherwise, you're just guessing.

There are also fewer direct competitors. How does that factor into your own analysis?

 

[RonMAIDEN]

On a side not why does it seem alot of 4th gen owners don't want the 5th gen to succeed?
I guess maybe back in the day 3rd gen owners might've been a little disappointed when the 4th gens came out looking like a porky street truck devoid of any ruggedness (and all that plastic on the sides) but then again the last two years of 3rd gens were starting to get soft when they lowered them,lost the rear diff lock and manual tranny.

IMO the 5th gen seems to have rejuvenated public interest in the 4Runner again even with the lack of a V8 and a burger tray. :thumb3:

It's all good for any true Toyota enthusiasts. I personally have my favorite things about every generation but the 5th gen is the next 4runner I can see buying to replace my 3rd gen eventually but I could see me buying a later 4th gen.

 

[Jed]

According to the numbers I found, there were more than 500,000 4th gen 4Runners manufactured and sold.

So far we have what, 25,000 5th gens? Not bad, but still a long way to go to eclipse 4th gen sales.

 

[Jed]

On a side not why does it seem alot of 4th gen owners don't want the 5th gen to succeed?
.

Who says they don't want it to succeed? If anything, I hope it does well enough for Toyota to justify a 6th generation. I'd hate to see the 4Runner discontinued.

At the same time, the 5th gen fanbois here need to get a grip on reality and understand that it just hasn't been so great in sales numbers so far. And if it doesn't get better, we just might not see a 6th gen. Like I said, if they discontinue the FJ next year, it might help the 4Runner.

 

[SeattleMike]

I was thinking the same thing about you.



Um, no. No, it's not. You obviously don't understand my argument. I'll say it again....2009 was an anomoly. Throw it out because it doesn't even factor into any analysis. If you don't believe me, then show me similar numbers from 2008 to 2009 in any generation of the 4Runner.



More people want the 5th gen than the 4th gen? Using your warped logic that might be true, but in reality the 5th gen will NEVER match the numbers of the 4th gen. Think about it--for the 1st model year, the 5th gen is way behind the first model year of the 4th gen. Trust me, the 2011 model year will yield similar results. By the end of the 5th gen's run, it will not have sold anywhere near the units of the 4th gen.

You can leave your "ugly" comments to someone that cares....numbers are numbers and they don't lie. The 5th gen isn't exactly off to a stellar start.

It is, you just can't bring yourself to admit it. So rather than deal with the facts, you decide to discard numbers that are inconvenient... like 2009. If 2009 is an anomaly, why isn't 2003? You don't get to cherry pick your facts, Jed. What's more, it's obviously part of a long-term downward trend which you also seem to ignore. That trend is being reversed with no incentives, in a ****ty economy, and despite a horrid year for Toyota's image by this generation.

Maybe you should change your nick to Cleopatra.

 

[RonMAIDEN]

Well,most of the negative comments about the 5th gen on this forum are coming from current 4th gen owners so yes,I'm making a presumption.

 

[Jed]

It is, you just can't bring yourself to admit it. So rather than deal with the facts, you decide to discard numbers that are inconvenient... like 2009. If 2009 is an anomaly, why isn't 2003? You don't get to cherry pick your facts, Jed. What's more, it's obviously part of a long-term downward trend which you also seem to ignore. That trend is being reversed with no incentives, in a ****ty economy, and despite a horrid year for Toyota's image by this generation.

Maybe you should change your nick to Cleopatra.

Your whole argument is based upon the fact that the 2010 is selling better than the 2009 sold. And that's just dandy, but it's basically irrelevant. Of course it is selling better....the 2009 had the lowest numbers in 4Runner history for a variety of reasons. It is an anomaly and that shoudl be obvious to anyone who has looked at the numbers. You asked why 2003 isn't an anomaly...are you serious? Look at the numbers and you'll see why.

But the fact remains that the 5th gen is off to a poor start when you compare it to the 4th gen. At the current rate, the 5th gen will probably sell less than 200,000 units over the entire generation. And will that be enough for Toyota to consider a 6th gen? Don't look now, but vehicles like these are a dying breed. Nobody is making them any more!

 

[Jed]

Well,most of the negative comments about the 5th gen on this forum are coming from current 4th gen owners so yes,I'm making a presumption.

I love 4Runners as much as anyone (even if I do hate the 5th gen styling, I still like it because it's a 4Runner) and I'd hate to see the name dropped. I'd also hate to see the name go on if it's turned into a crossover type SUV. So in that sense I'm rooting for the 5th gen to sell like crazy. But I just don't see it happening. That's just my opinion. I still think it would be selling better if they had nicer styling. Again, just my opinion.

At the end of the day, I'm still rooting for strong sales of the 5th gen, if for no other reason than to keep the 4Runner alive.

 

[SeattleMike]

On a side not why does it seem alot of 4th gen owners don't want the 5th gen to succeed?

I ran into a guy the other night who spent an hour trying to convince me that Iron Maiden was crap after Paul Di'Anno was fired and hates everything since Killers. Some people just get threatened by improvements.

 

[Will733]

It would be a sad day if the 4Runner were discontinued for whatever reason. Even with sales down in this economy and people moving towards cars with better MPG... the 4Runner of all generations has a HUGE cult following. That we can all agree on. The Highlander has taken most of the soccer mom's share of 4Runner sales but you'll never see such a following on a Highlander forum: Official Highlander Message Board - Powered by vBulletin :roadkill:

 

[Jed]

I ran into a guy the other night who spent an hour trying to convince me that Iron Maiden was crap after Paul Di'Anno was fired and hates everything since Killers. Some people just get threatened by improvements.

And some people just look at things logically.

Remember...more than 500,000 4th gens sold. Unless they keep the 5th gen around for 20 years, I don't see it approaching those numbers.

But it's different times today, you say? Yup, sure it...no doubt about it. The big question is whether or not Toyota feels that 25-30K units per year is enough to justify the next generation or not.

I'll make a bold prediction right now:

There will be no 6th gen 4Runner...or if there is, it will more of a crossover type SUV that will appeal more to the masses.

Just for the record, I hope I'm wrong. It will be fun to dig up this thread in a few years.

 

[Jed]

It would be a sad day if the 4Runner were discontinued for whatever reason. Even with sales down in this economy and people moving towards cars with better MPG... the 4Runner of all generations has a HUGE cult following. That we can all agree on. The Highlander has taken most of the soccer mom's share of 4Runner sales but you'll never see such a following on a Highlander forum: Official Highlander Message Board - Powered by vBulletin :roadkill:

I agree 100%

Vehicles like the Highlander definitely stole some of the 4Runner's thunder. The Highlander is very similar in size and price, but has more of the comfort and economy that the mainstream is looking for in a midsize SUV.

 

[Snowfox]

If anything they have to let go, the Landcruiser has to go first, Look at the sale volumes for Aug 2010, The Landcruiser sold far less than the T4R, but Toyota continue to Produce them. I think the T4R will continue for decade to come.

 

[SeattleMike]

Remember...more than 500,000 4th gens sold. Unless they keep the 5th gen around for 20 years, I don't see it approaching those numbers.

But it's different times today, you say? Yup, sure it...no doubt about it. The big question is whether or not Toyota feels that 25-30K units per year is enough to justify the next generation or not.

This thread was started to counter all the crap 4th Gen owners were spewing about the lack of V8, the part-time 4WD, the styling, the antenna, the lack of a burger tray, and the subsequent predictions of demise.

You champion their cause. You are emotionally invested in the idea that the 5th Gen will never be as popular as the 4th, while trying to claim that you really want the 5th Gen to be a success. I don't believe you. Every post you make on the subject leads one to believe that you want the 5th Gen to fail and you seem to take pleasure in decrying any success. You completely ignore the continued sales increases of the new model in relation to the old, arguing on one hand that bad times impacted the 2009, while completely ignoring that the circumstances haven't changed in 2010.

Let me Jed this down for you: 2009 sucked, 2010 sucks, 2011 is gonna suck, too. 2007 was the last year that consumption was fueled by easy credit and mortgage equity and comparing the two eras side-by-side is monumentally stupid. In like circumstances, the 5th Gen is winning back buyers. In percentage terms, the 5th Gen is beating both the 3rd and 4th generation launches by a large margin which is only MORE impressive in bad times because logic tells us that the numbers should be down like the rest of the models from Toyota. But it's the one shining gem on the balance sheet and anyone with any intellectual honesty can see it.

Don't bother to reply, I'm done reading anything you post.