5th Gen sales up 54.7% over 4th Gen

These vehicles have a long life cycle, so it would be nice to know what kind of sales numbers Toyota needs to justify a new generation in ~ 2017.

Well, everything is 'relative'. Numbers alone mean nothing without something to relative to compare them to. Sure the number of sales are lower than the 4th was in 03', but what was the overall vehicle sales in the nation then? How many were SUV vs Cars? If there were 5 million vehicle sales in 03' and the 4R captured 100k of those great, but say there were only 500k vehicle sales in 10', and the 4R captured 40k of those. Sure 10' sold less but had a much higher percent of the market.

The best comparison you can do is the latest data, there was a massive increase from 09' to 10', but 08' & 10' was just about the same. The increase in 10' tell me that the in 09' the 4th gen was just too 'dated' for the market. Spending 40k on an 09' 4th vs what the competition was offering was no match. I got into a used 09' once, felt like I was back in the early 2000's with the lack of technology and 'old' layout style.

Just like the Tahoe, I have a friend who owns a 00' - it is essentially identical to the 06's on the inside. A LOT changes in 6 years, which can be proven by the 07's+. Get in an 06' and compare it to an 07', night and day. It 06' it would be crazy to invest into 'old' technology.

I think if they keep the 4R up to date with technology and style it will be around for a long time, if they let it slide, like companies seem to do, their sales will also.
 
Well, everything is 'relative'. Numbers alone mean nothing without something to relative to compare them to. Sure the number of sales are lower than the 4th was in 03', but what was the overall vehicle sales in the nation then? How many were SUV vs Cars? If there were 5 million vehicle sales in 03' and the 4R captured 100k of those great, but say there were only 500k vehicle sales in 10', and the 4R captured 40k of those. Sure 10' sold less but had a much higher percent of the market.

The best comparison you can do is the latest data, there was a massive increase from 09' to 10', but 08' & 10' was just about the same. The increase in 10' tell me that the in 09' the 4th gen was just too 'dated' for the market. Spending 40k on an 09' 4th vs what the competition was offering was no match. I got into a used 09' once, felt like I was back in the early 2000's with the lack of technology and 'old' layout style.

Just like the Tahoe, I have a friend who owns a 00' - it is essentially identical to the 06's on the inside. A LOT changes in 6 years, which can be proven by the 07's+. Get in an 06' and compare it to an 07', night and day. It 06' it would be crazy to invest into 'old' technology.

I think if they keep the 4R up to date with technology and style it will be around for a long time, if they let it slide, like companies seem to do, their sales will also.

Yes, I read this entire thread and it is obvious that you are very defensive about the 5th gen sales numbers. The 2009 model sales numbers weren't because it was "dated". Using that logic, the 2008 model was almost as "dated" but still sold more than 4 times the amount of the 2009 model, despite the fact that 2008 was the year of $4.00/gallon gasoline. I agree with the other posters here that any comparison involving the 2009 model doesn't mean much of anything.

Another way to look at the numbers is that the 2010 model almost reached the sales volume of the 2008 model. That isn't good if you consider the 2008 was almost at the end of the 4th generation life cycle. If the 5th gen drops in sales each year, that means by 2015 Toyota will be lucky to sell more than 20,000 4Runners. I don't know if that will be enough to keep the 4Runner alive for another generation.
 
If Toyota puts a diesel into the 4Runner mid cycle there is a chance it may pull through to a 6th Gen otherwise I tend to agree with some others - this could be the last gen of 4Runner

I don't think we'll see a diesel 4Runner. But Toyota might try it to boost sales up again above 2008 levels.
 
I just looked at the year to year and it wasnt 54.7% its actually somewhere in the 300's I forget the actual # and that is straight from the factory.
 
Yes, I read this entire thread and it is obvious that you are very defensive about the 5th gen sales numbers.

Just waiting for some real 'proof' to see what it all means, when we see what the numbers are at the end of this year (11') then we will be able to get a good baseline. Until then, we (including me) are all assuming and guessing.

Another way to look at the numbers is that the 2010 model almost reached the sales volume of the 2008 model.

Yes, I said the exact thing above. As you well know there are many factors affecting sales, the economy, fuel prices, how dated said model is, competition of other models, lease/financing offers from dealers, and on and on.

Obviously Toyota made an improvement to the 4R or sales would not have increased with the 5th. Even if you say other factors besides the new style brought people in, fine, but it still would not account for the huge 09' -> 10' jump completely. Will sales ever be as high as the 4th once was, no way, I will be the 1st to admit that. There is too much competition from others out there with crossovers and high MPG's vehicles. The 'need' for a 4wd body and frame is not nearly as in demand as it once was. Do I think we would have seen another 5k to 10k to the 5th gen sales if they offered a V8 as well, I have a feeling that might be yes.

To be fair to Toyota you would have to pull numbers of other models as well to compare how they are doing as well (Yukon, Tahoe, etc.) I'm sure they are all dropping as well, but how much of the market does Toyota have vs them?

I am not about 'defending' the sales numbers, a number is a number, you can defend it all you want but it does not change it. I am just trying to give a different POV as to reasons that 'might' possibly be behind these numbers. Like I said above we would need another year to get a true sense of what is really happening.

Tahoe/Yukon went from 285k in 03' down to 104k in 10'

4Runner went from 109k in 03' down to 46k in 10'

Tahoe/Yukon took a larger percentage hit than the 4R has in those years. If Toyota can keep up with quality, style, technology, and provide what the buyers want they 'hopefully' will be able to hold strong in their market with the 4R.
 
I don't think we'll see a diesel 4Runner. But Toyota might try it to boost sales up again above 2008 levels.

It's the way pretty much every auto manufacturer managed to keep the SUV/ small truck segment alive in Europe after their gas prices several years ago hit levels similar to those now in NA. Diesel or Die Sell..
 
Just waiting for some real 'proof' to see what it all means, when we see what the numbers are at the end of this year (11') then we will be able to get a good baseline. Until then, we (including me) are all assuming and guessing.



Yes, I said the exact thing above. As you well know there are many factors affecting sales, the economy, fuel prices, how dated said model is, competition of other models, lease/financing offers from dealers, and on and on.

Obviously Toyota made an improvement to the 4R or sales would not have increased with the 5th. Even if you say other factors besides the new style brought people in, fine, but it still would not account for the huge 09' -> 10' jump completely. Will sales ever be as high as the 4th once was, no way, I will be the 1st to admit that. There is too much competition from others out there with crossovers and high MPG's vehicles. The 'need' for a 4wd body and frame is not nearly as in demand as it once was. Do I think we would have seen another 5k to 10k to the 5th gen sales if they offered a V8 as well, I have a feeling that might be yes.

To be fair to Toyota you would have to pull numbers of other models as well to compare how they are doing as well (Yukon, Tahoe, etc.) I'm sure they are all dropping as well, but how much of the market does Toyota have vs them?

I am not about 'defending' the sales numbers, a number is a number, you can defend it all you want but it does not change it. I am just trying to give a different POV as to reasons that 'might' possibly be behind these numbers. Like I said above we would need another year to get a true sense of what is really happening.

Tahoe/Yukon went from 285k in 03' down to 104k in 10'

4Runner went from 109k in 03' down to 46k in 10'

Tahoe/Yukon took a larger percentage hit than the 4R has in those years. If Toyota can keep up with quality, style, technology, and provide what the buyers want they 'hopefully' will be able to hold strong in their market with the 4R.

I just hope the numbers are strong enough to keep the 4Runner viable enough for a 6th generation. I wouldn't say that the number increased with the 5th generation. The title of this thread is misleading. The sales increased from 2009 to 2010, yes, that much is true. At the same time the sales so far for the 5th gen are not even nearly on par with the sales for the 4th gen. This is what has me worried that Toyota will pull the plug on the 4Runner entirely after the current generation.

As you said, demand is down for full frame vehicles like the 4Runner due to the amount of crossovers on the market. For people who do want full frame, the choices are very limited these days. That's an advantage for the 4Runner as I see it. How many vehicles are full frame in the midsize SUV segment? As others have said, that's probably why Toyota kept the 5th generation 4Runner full frame.

The real question is what will Toyota do with the next generation? If they don't keep it full frame and live axle, there's really no reason to keep it at all, as they already have IRS and unibody in both the Highlander and RAV4.
 
It's the way pretty much every auto manufacturer managed to keep the SUV/ small truck segment alive in Europe after their gas prices several years ago hit levels similar to those now in NA. Diesel or Die Sell..

True, but nobody has ever been successful selling diesels in high volume in the USA. We just don't seem to want them for whatever reason.

At least BMW and Mercedes are making some progress with diesel engines here in the USA.
 
I just hope the numbers are strong enough to keep the 4Runner viable enough for a 6th generation.

I agree!!!

I wouldn't say that the number increased with the 5th generation.The sales increased from 2009 to 2010, yes, that much is true.

I do not understand your logic here? Sales went from 11k (4th gen) to 46k (5th gen), that sure is an INCREASE (35,000), and a big one at that!

Take a look at the Tahoe/Yukon, in 06' they were 232k, and they DROPPED to 209k in 07' with their NEW 'generation'. The 4R did not continue to drop in sales, they had a substantial increase in sales with their new 'generation'. I know that was different years but some people say sales 'will always' increase with a new generation, but that is not 'always' the case. You have to prove to the consumer that you have a better or improved product.
 
I agree!!!



I do not understand your logic here? Sales went from 11k (4th gen) to 46k (5th gen), that sure is an INCREASE (35,000), and a big one at that!

Take a look at the Tahoe/Yukon, in 06' they were 232k, and they DROPPED to 209k in 07' with their NEW 'generation'. The 4R did not continue to drop in sales, they had a substantial increase in sales with their new 'generation'. I know that was different years but some people say sales 'will always' increase with a new generation, but that is not 'always' the case. You have to prove to the consumer that you have a better or improved product.

I don't really want to get into a debate about this because others have already done that in this thread. I'm saying that comparing '09 to '10 is meaningless. Yes, sales went up. At the same time, sales are MUCH lower in first year of the 5th gen compared to the first year of the 4th gen. In fact, the sales numbers for the 5th gen so far have only exceeded the last year of the 4th gen. I don't see that as good news. If you look at the '08 sales, at which point the 4th gen was six years old, even those numbers were a bit higher than the brand new 5th gen. I don't see that as good news. My guess is that Toyota was hoping for more sales volume than that. Of course that is just speculation. I have heard the FJ is getting axed. I'll have to look up the sales numbers over the years for the FJ. It hasn't even been out that long, so it will be an interesting comparison.
 
Another way to look at the numbers is that the 2010 model almost reached the sales volume of the 2008 model. That isn't good if you consider the 2008 was almost at the end of the 4th generation life cycle. If the 5th gen drops in sales each year, that means by 2015 Toyota will be lucky to sell more than 20,000 4Runners. I don't know if that will be enough to keep the 4Runner alive for another generation.

Surely you jest!
You can't compare body on frame SUV sales numbers to the past in this economic climate.That's apples to oranges!

As far as keeping the 4Runner in the Toyota stable,by my count Toyota sells 5 different Body on Frame SUV's in the USA. The 4Runner outsold them all by quite a wide margin,not to mention that was in 3/4 of a year sales since the first ones didn't hit dealerships until the end of November or early December.
Figured in a full years worth and they would have outsold the other 4 combined!

I read somewhere they only sold 3000+ Sequoia's and far less GX570's in 2010.That goes to show that there is more then just numbers and profit margin has quite a bit to do with what they produce.
These are the figures for the US Landcruiser 200 sales and all together they barely add up to what they sold in 4Runners in 9 months worth figured out to 12 months.
2000 15,509
2001 7,591
2002 6,752
2003 6,671
2004 6,778
2005 4,870
2006 3,376
2007 3,251
2008 3,801

I do think they will be forced to drop 1-2 of the 5 BOF SUV's they have on the market but it won't be the 4Runner IMO.It's their top selling one!I just hope we get some of the allotted V8's in a mid gen refresh so people can tow with them. The new frame is very strong and they have the weight to tow just not a powerful enough engine to tow efficiently.

We have no idea what their profit margins are on 4runners or any profit margins of any of their BOF Suv's for that matter.
Just because the window sticker says "Assembled in Japan" we have no idea where they are getting their parts from and at what cost and they are not obligated to tell us. Guaranteed ,they are not all "made in Japan" It's the way the world is now!China can and will make anything at a much lower cost and their quality has improved dramatically!

Bottom line is I think Toyota is happy with 46k+ sold in 9 months and that there is no way to predict the economic climate 4 1/2 years down the road when the next Gen would be due.

LONG LIVE THE 4RUNNER !
 
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I'm saying that comparing '09 to '10 is meaningless.

Actually it is one of the most important comparisons you can do! It is a back to back year, and to see such a massive jump in sales in a great thing for Toyota and the 4R fans!

Yes, sales went up. At the same time, sales are MUCH lower in first year of the 5th gen compared to the first year of the 4th gen.

Of course they are, that would be common sense, a lot has changed in the market in the last decade. People have switched over from the body on frame SUV's to crossovers and other, getting deja vu here. The same could be said for sales of ANY SUV in its class. 10 years ago pick up trucks were considered 'red-neck' by a lot of people, now they are more expensive than most vehicles on the market! Towns had by-law prohibiting pick-up from being parked outside, they had to change those laws pretty quickly! Too much has changed in the market to make any accurate comparisons from that far back.

My guess is that Toyota was hoping for more sales volume than that. Of course that is just speculation.

You could be right, then again I would be very happy with a 405% increase in sales for one model in ONE year with my company!

I have heard the FJ is getting axed. I'll have to look up the sales numbers over the years for the FJ. It hasn't even been out that long, so it will be an interesting comparison.

That could be true, and I would not be surprised. The market that SUV targets is VERY small, and the FJ does have some major drawbacks from making it a friendly DD as well. Combine those 2 and it is/was a matter or time before that model gets pulled.

I feel like you have a general negative feeling about all of this and I'm not really sure why? Given other companies sales I think the 4R increase is a great thing. Not sure if you have a bad taste in your mouth in regards to the 5th vs the 4th, to each their own on that. I have seen a higher turnover of 4R's at my local dealership in the past couple of months, by no means is that any kind of accurate way to tell sales, but I think the new 5th is finally getting more and more attention. People still seem surprised at seeing this 5th even though it has been out for a while, hopefully the more people drive around in them will pull others towards it, further increasing sales.
 
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I just hope the numbers are strong enough to keep the 4Runner viable enough for a 6th generation. I wouldn't say that the number increased with the 5th generation. The title of this thread is misleading. The sales increased from 2009 to 2010, yes, that much is true. At the same time the sales so far for the 5th gen are not even nearly on par with the sales for the 4th gen. This is what has me worried that Toyota will pull the plug on the 4Runner entirely after the current generation.
The title of this thread is spot on, actually. It was the sales percentage increase Year-over-Year for the month of February 2009 versus February 2010, taken directly from the sales report linked in the first post. I created the thread because bunch of 4th Gen owners kept whining about how they hated the 5th Gen, it was ugly, it didn't have a V8, it would never surpass the 4th Gen, blah blah blah. The numbers proved otherwise, and have continued to prove otherwise consistently month after month.

Is it going to outsell the 4th Gen in numbers alone? We'll see. But the 4th Gen never outsold the 3rd, either. That's not just due to gas prices or recessions, either; Toyota has fractured it's own market with the introduction of the FJ Cruiser, the Sequoia, the Highlander, the Venza and the Rav4. Comparing sales numbers doesn't really illustrate the popularity of one versus the other because the numbers alone have no context. But the number originally posted proved that it was at least as popular as the 4th gen in similar economic and competitive circumstances... and the 5th gen's YoY numbers continue to increase.

BTW Doc, speaking of context, these numbers were taken from JA's site:
3rd 4th 5th
Year 1: 99,597 109,308 46,531
Year 2: 128,496 114,212
Year 3: 118,484 103,830
Year 4: 124,221 103,086
Year 5: 111,797 87,718
Year 6: 90,250 47,878
Year 7: 77,026 19,675
Total#: 638,074 585,707

Clearly, the lesson to be taken from those numbers is that people don't like mid-cycle refreshes, right? I mean, since sales take a nosedive after that refresh (and devoid of any context) it's the logical conclusion. Right?
 
Surely you jest!
You can't compare body on frame SUV sales numbers to the past in this economic climate.That's apples to oranges!

Jest? Me? Nope. Think about it. 2008 and 2010 are only two years apart. And 2008 was a worse economic climate than 2010. Gas prices were at an all-time high, which definitely hurt 4Runner sales. The housing market was taking a HUGE hit. People were losing their jobs. By comparison, 2010 had lower gas prices, and the worst of the recession was behind us. The job market still stunk, but the economic climate was undeniably better in 2010 compared to 2008. Yet Toyota still sold more 4Runners with a 6-year-old body style. Thats apples to apples for you!

You can say that the 4Runner is Toyota's top selling BOF SUV, but that's because it's the smallest and most economical BOF SUV they sell. The FJ is roughly the same size/price, but it's done soon. The 4Runner is also similar in size/price to the Highlander. So if interest for BOF keeps declining, which is evident by sales of ALL BOF midsize SUVs, I just don't see the 4Runner surviving as a BOF vehicle. If they take away the BOF, then it will be too much like the Highlander and I doubt Toyota will find a place for it in their SUV lineup.

I've a two time 4Runner owner and I'd like to be able to buy a 6th gen in the future. Unless sales go up, I don't see that happening. The 4Runner is a volume vehicle, so if the sales volume isn't there, don't count on Toyota continuing the 4Runner beyond the 5th generation.
 
Actually it is one of the most important comparisons you can do! It is a back to back year, and to see such a massive jump in sales in a great thing for Toyota and the 4R fans!

Back to back year or not, 2009 doesn't have any real meaning. I know you love to focus on 2009 because every single point you've made NEEDS the 2009 model year to have any validity at all. If we could wipe out 2009, everything you've said suddenly becomes pointless. So keep focusing on 2009 and I'll keep focusing on the overall picture. You said yourself that the 5th gen will never approach the sales numbers of the 4th gen. That should have you worried if you want to see a 6th gen. Again, the 4Runner is a volume seller when it comes to BOF SUVs, unlike the Toyota's larger BOF offerings. If the sales numbers aren't good, don't count on seeing a 6th gen. That's all I'm saying here.

Of course they are, that would be common sense, a lot has changed in the market in the last decade. People have switched over from the body on frame SUV's to crossovers and other, getting deja vu here. The same could be said for sales of ANY SUV in its class.

You are ignoring the fact that there are FAR fewer BOD midsize SUVs in the marketplace. Back when the 4th gen came out, there were a lot of choics for buyers who wanted a BOF midsize SUV. Today, there are hardly any. So even if people switched over to crossovers, the people who want BOF were forced into a 4Runner or possibly an Xterra. I believe the current Pathfinder is BOF, but it has IRS, so it's close, but no cigar.

That could be true, and I would not be surprised. The market that SUV targets is VERY small, and the FJ does have some major drawbacks from making it a friendly DD as well. Combine those 2 and it is/was a matter or time before that model gets pulled.

I feel like you have a general negative feeling about all of this and I'm not really sure why? Given other companies sales I think the 4R increase is a great thing. Not sure if you have a bad taste in your mouth in regards to the 5th vs the 4th, to each their own on that. I have seen a higher turnover of 4R's at my local dealership in the past couple of months, by no means is that any kind of accurate way to tell sales, but I think the new 5th is finally getting more and more attention. People still seem surprised at seeing this 5th even though it has been out for a while, hopefully the more people drive around in them will pull others towards it, further increasing sales.

My negative feeling has nothing to do with the 4th gen vs the 5th gen. I think that is where YOUR apparent blindness stems from. My negativity is based upon my doubt that Toyota will continue building our beloved 4Runners as the are today with BOF and live axles. Unless more people start buying them, it's not going to happen. I don't want to move up to a larger size SUV to keep BOF & live axle rear, so please everyone start buying more 4Runners!!!
 
The title of this thread is spot on, actually. It was the sales percentage increase Year-over-Year for the month of February 2009 versus February 2010, taken directly from the sales report linked in the first post. I created the thread because bunch of 4th Gen owners kept whining about how they hated the 5th Gen, it was ugly, it didn't have a V8, it would never surpass the 4th Gen, blah blah blah. The numbers proved otherwise, and have continued to prove otherwise consistently month after month.

The title of this thread is "5th Gen sales up 54.7% over 4th Gen". That is misleading because it's comparing generations, not model years. The title should have been "2010 4Runner up 54.7% over 2009 4Runner" and then it wouldn't have been misleading. I'm not sure how you fail to understand that. One model year does not define a generation.

Is it going to outsell the 4th Gen in numbers alone? We'll see. But the 4th Gen never outsold the 3rd, either. That's not just due to gas prices or recessions, either; Toyota has fractured it's own market with the introduction of the FJ Cruiser, the Sequoia, the Highlander, the Venza and the Rav4. Comparing sales numbers doesn't really illustrate the popularity of one versus the other because the numbers alone have no context. But the number originally posted proved that it was at least as popular as the 4th gen in similar economic and competitive circumstances... and the 5th gen's YoY numbers continue to increase.

BTW Doc, speaking of context, these numbers were taken from JA's site:
3rd 4th 5th
Year 1: 99,597 109,308 46,531
Year 2: 128,496 114,212
Year 3: 118,484 103,830
Year 4: 124,221 103,086
Year 5: 111,797 87,718
Year 6: 90,250 47,878
Year 7: 77,026 19,675
Total#: 638,074 585,707

Clearly, the lesson to be taken from those numbers is that people don't like mid-cycle refreshes, right? I mean, since sales take a nosedive after that refresh (and devoid of any context) it's the logical conclusion. Right?

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Sales don't take a nosedive after the refresh. The 4th gen refresh was in the 2006 model year. Sales were nearly idetical from 2005 to 2006.

More importantly, the numbers taken from JAs site are by calendar year, not model year. Since next year's models are sold in the last quarter of the prior year, they aren't an accurate way to gauge sales for any particular model year. Didn't you noticed that the last year of the 4th gen is listed at nearly 20,000 units? That's because there are some 5th gen sales lumped in there as well. You need to go by model year numbers, not calendar year.
 
A lot of 4th gen owners were waiting for the 5th gen to replace our 4th gen. A lot of us waited to long and wish we would have bought a 09 as the 5th gens were a disappointment. Also 09 was a short production year to get ready to make the 5th gens.
 
I looked up some sales numbers on the FJ Cruiser.

The vehicle started as a 2006 model. There were 56,225 sold.
That number held almost steady for the 2007 models. There were 55,170 sold.
For the 2008 models, sales declined quite a bit. There were 28,688 sold.
By 2009, sales dropped drastically to 11,941.

I found a link where people were celebrating that the 2010 models were way up in sales. They were happy that sales were up 51% over the 2009 models. That still put them on target for 18,000 sales by the end of the year. That's obviously not early enough for Toyota to consider keeping the FJ in production.

Interestly, the FJ's best two years (2006 & 2007) were its first two years and since it is roughly the same size and price as the 4Runner, I'm quite sure the two vehicles cannibalized sales from each other.
 
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A lot of 4th gen owners were waiting for the 5th gen to replace our 4th gen. A lot of us waited to long and wish we would have bought a 09 as the 5th gens were a disappointment. Also 09 was a short production year to get ready to make the 5th gens.

I don't want to turn this into a 4th gen vs 5th gen debate where someone says one is better than the other. I'm focusing on sales numbers and whether or not Toyota will be able to justify keeping the 4Runner like it is today. I just recently read that the Xterra is living on borrowed time. That's a shame and I don't want to see that happen to our 4Runners.

If you've read my other posts, you'll see that I treat my own 4Runner like a work horse. I've plowed with it (using a rear mounted pull plow), I've towed with it, and I've pulled stumps out of the ground with it. I want, no I NEED a BOF vehicle like the 4Runner. I NEED that fully boxed frame. I NEED that strong straight axle in the rear. My problem is that I want that in a midsize SUV. I don't want a truck and I don't want a fullsize SUV. I'll probably be ready to buy another 4Runner by the time the 6th gen gets here. I might not have any choice but to buy used by then. That's what I'm afraid of!
 
Back to back year or not, 2009 doesn't have any real meaning. I know you love to focus on 2009 because every single point you've made NEEDS the 2009 model year to have any validity at all. If we could wipe out 2009, everything you've said suddenly becomes pointless.

I bet a lot of people would like to wipe out one year of their life, but sadly that is not possible, not without a LOT of drugs! Just because you don't like something you can not pretend it does not exist, we are not children here, are we? Unfortunately 2009 does exist, so my points stand.

Obviously you and I will have to agree to disagree on this one, although you might want watch the personal attacks here, people get banned for it :boink:
 

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